“Actual foreign-arrival numbers into Asia-Pacific at the aggregate level have been within 2 per cent of predictions made in the last few Pata forecasts, so we know that the numbers are realistic, reliable and valid,” Mario Hardy, chief executive officer, said about the “Pata Asia-Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2016-20” released yesterday.

Covering 38 destinations, these annual Pata forecasts are well regarded for their overall accuracy and reliability in terms of highlighting shifts and trends in international visitor demand for travel in and across the region.

“This last series of predictions again highlights the rapidly approaching need for aggressive and appropriate visitor-management processes to be installed and operational before we literally destroy our destinations with our love and desire to interact with them,” he said.

In the 2015-20 period, Asia will continue to increase its dominance of foreign arrivals from 72 per cent to 73 per cent, while the absolute volume of arrivals into Asia-Pacific generally is predicted to rise from 528 million to 647 million.

In the period, Southeast Asia will continue with its dramatic rise in foreign arrivals, improving its share from 20 per cent to 22.5 per cent, when it will rival the Americas’ share of 22.6 per cent.

In the period, Asia will also continue to generate more international arrivals into the Asia-Pacific region, increasing its count from 355 million visitors to 448 million. That will see the Asian component of arrivals into the region – as defined in the summary report – increase from 66 per cent to 68 per cent in the period.

However, it is Northeast Asia that remains the workhorse for the region, generating an expected 333 million international arrivals in 2020 – more than half of the total foreign inbound volume expected in that year.

Intra-regional flows will continue to remain strong for most Asia-Pacific regions, but across the region, the influence of the Asian source market is undeniable and will only grow stronger, at least in most cases.

The Americas and Europe will continue to play important roles in Asia-Pacific travel and tourism, not just in the volume of arrivals they each generate but also in additional metrics that they bring to the industry – more for some destinations than others, but still significant none the less.

The Americas are expected to generate 113 million arrivals into the Asia-Pacific region in 2020, driven largely by North America, which will contribute close to two-thirds of that volume.

The 47 million arrivals from Europe expected in 2020 will come from Western Europe (19.5 million) but also Northern Europe (14.7 million). These two origin subregions will generate close to two-thirds of total arrivals from Europe by 2020.

“The predictions are positive but there will be some substantive changes in origin-market structure into a number of destinations. Forewarned is forearmed,” Hardy said.