Deputy Commerce Minister Suvit Maesincee said that although achieving the 5-per-cent goal is extremely unlikely now, the ministry would retain it as as a working target.

“Exports will not be worse than last year, when they were down by 5.7 per cent. The country could achieve about 2.5-per-cent growth in the best-case scenario, or at worst face flat growth or only a slight decline,” he said.

The ministry has calculated that to achieve 2.5-per-cent growth, export value would have to be at least US$18.5 billion (Bt660 billion) in each of the remaining months.

The ministry reported export value in the first four months was down by 1.24 per cent year on year to $69.37 billion.

Exports in April were valued at $15.54 billion, down by 8 per cent year on year, while imports dropped by 14.92 per cent to $14.82 billion. Imports in the first four months dropped 12.73 per cent to $60.46 billion. Thailand locked in a trade surplus of $8.9 billion in the January-to-April period.

The decline in export value last month was largely due to lower shipments of both industrial and agricultural products, while April had a number of long holiday periods interrupting export-import transactions.

If volatile gold and oil exports are excluded, shipments last month declined 6.2 per cent year on year.

Thailand’s export sector currently relies heavily on the global economy, which is still unpredictable. However, Suvit said that under the government’s restructuring plan, the sector should |be able to rely on less unpredictable factors.

He added that despite declining exports last month, Thai trading still had good momentum. The import of raw materials and machinery to support the export sector has increased, showing that the manufacturing sector is expanding, which should result in more exports in the future.

In addition, the Board of Investment reported that the value of applications for BOI privileges would be worth about Bt450 billion this year after surging past Bt200 billion in the first four months .

New foreign direct investment in the first four months was valued at Bt200.52 billion, an increase of 234 per cent compared with the same period last year, the BOI said. A total of 398 projects soughtBOI privileges between January and April, up 84 per cent year on year.

Meanwhile, the Thai Industries Sentiment Index (TISI) fell to 85.0 in April from 86.7 in the previous month, given long holidays and drought. Scores below 100 indicate low sentiment.

Chen Namchaisiri, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, said that there were fewer business days than normal in April, which led to less production capacity, particularly in large industries like electrical appliances and electronics, cement, plastics and petrochemicals.

Besides, business operators were concerned that appreciation of the baht could negatively affect export competitiveness, and drought could lead to shortages of raw materials and consequent higher production costs in the agricultural-product industry.

The TISI was based on a survey of 1,212 business operators last month.

The three-month TISI also inched down to 97.2 in April from 98.3 a month earlier on business operators’ concern over the slow recovery in purchasing power in the region, a likely rise in local fuel prices, foreign-exchange volatility and trade barriers, particularly non-tariff measures.

In April, automobile production |rose 11.51 per cent year on year to |138,237 units, according to Surapong Paisitpattanapong, spokesman for the FTI’s Automotive Industry Club.

From January to April, total auto production amounted to 645,111 units, down 0.52 per cent year on year.

Auto export value increased 10.18 per cent year on year to Bt43.08 billion in April. However, the number of vehicles exported last month edged down 2 per cent to 80,491 on the back of fewer eco-car exports. However, there was a 126-per-cent surge in the value of exports of pickup passenger vehicles due to their higher prices.

In the January-April period, auto export value jumped 11.1 per cent to Bt206.64 billion. However, unit exports fell 5.39 per cent year on year to 388,251.