In a speech to the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce’s executive programme, Supachai foresaw more crises stemming from shale gas explorers’ debt in light of persistently low oil prices, financial hardships of oil companies in Russia, geopolitical conflicts in Europe, and conflicts in the South China Sea.

Trade would become the mechanism for countries involved to vent their spleen at each other. A myriad of non-tariff barriers would be invented.

He saw the Trans-Pacific Partnership as a good example as “there is no real free trade deal in this world”.

Even in the Asean Economic Community barriers exist to block the true movement of labour. Under the scheme allowing free movement in eight professions, no single Asean citizen has reaped benefits from it, he said.

“Global trade would no longer be influenced by economic policies but political policies, and the benefits will depend on whose side you are on,” said Supachai, who was former director-general of the World Trade Organisation and former Unctad secretary-general.

A scenario was imminent where no particular country would have absolute control over the global economy. It all started with the “financialisation”, which boosted the financial sector to the disadvantage of the real sector and led to the 2008 financial crisis.

“The world lacks an economic steering. We can’t rely on the conventional, useless leaders. What the world needs is common governance to address structural problems [that underline global conflicts]. These could be tackled by freer trade and equality,” he said.

Supachai said global problems are born mainly from ethnic conflicts, economic volatility and inequality. While ethnic conflicts heighten, major economies still maintain relaxed monetary policies and try to defend their economic powers. Inequality – whether within a country or among countries – will widen.

The West itself is faltering, growing their economies mainly through the services sector while maintaining huge subsidies on agricultural products and tax incentives for the manufacturing sector. Without the subsidies, the agricultural sector would flop. Without the tax incentives, manufacturers would have left for Asia, he said.

He said the 2008 financial crisis, Brexit, the Orlando shooting and migrant crisis all stemmed from inequality.

He noted that these structural problems need to be addressed or it would spur more imbalances in the world – including a stronger sense of protectionism in some countries and more migration of people to more promising countries; and economic nationalism – the opposite of liberalisation. And these were not a good answer.

Supachai said countries in the West still denied this fact, and were trying to block migration.

“Japan suffered from two lost decades. The EU is facing a lost decade and this will drag on. Migration will remain a global crisis. If we can’t fix inequality, we can’t fix the global economic woes,” he noted.

All chaos was interconnected and Asia, including Thailand, could not be spared, he warned.

In his comment after Britain voted to leave the European Union, Frederic Neumann, co-head of HSBC’s Asian Economic Research, said: “The fragility of the West, economically as well as politically, is a reminder that Asia can’t count on an export rebound any time soon to lift ailing growth. Reforms are urgently needed to put local demand growth on a more sustainable path.”