The ministry reported that inflation in the first seven months was slightly negative at minus-0.07 per cent after July’s CPI edged up 0.1 per cent year on year.

Month-on-month inflation was minus-0.35 per cent on lower fuel and food prices, the latter decline due to a higher supply of agricultural crops after the end of the harvest season.

For now, the ministry has retained its full-year inflation projection at 0-1 per cent. The projection assumes that the price of Dubai crude oil will average US$30-$40 per barrel, the baht will range between 36 and 38 to the US dollar and gross domestic product will grow by 2.8-3.8 per cent.

However, the ministry will next month review the inflation target, foreseeing that fuel prices, which have shrunk again, could result in lower inflation in the remaining months, Somkiat Triratpan, inspector-general of the ministry and director of its Policies and Trade Strategies Bureau, said yesterday.

In the current third quarter of the year, the ministry expects the quarterly inflation of 0.47 per cent, a slight increase from higher prices of some foods and goods. In the fourth quarter, inflation is expected to increase to 1.42 per cent from last year’s low base.

Somkiat said the expected slight increases in the CPI in the remaining months should benefit the |economy and encourage more spending.

Last month, prices of foods and beverages rose 1.8 per cent, while non-food-and-beverage prices decreased 0.84 per cent.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, firmed slightly in July to 0.76 per cent year on year and 0.73 per cent month on month. Average core inflation in the first seven months of the year was 0.73 per cent, which was in line with the Bank of Thailand’s forecast of 0.5-3 per cent.