The ministry reported yesterday that exports in July had declined year on year for the fifth consecutive month, by 4.35 per cent to a value of US$17.41 billion (Bt602 billion), resulting in a cumulative 2-per-cent decline in the first seven months to $122.55 billion.

“From the past three years’ statistics, shipments will grow in the second half of the year, particularly in the final quarter, and result in export growth of 1.3 per cent [for the whole year] to $223.46 billion,” said Malee Choklumlerd, director-general of the International Trade Promotion Department.

The ministry will consider revising its current working target for export growth, which is set at 5 per cent, after discussions with Thai trade representatives overseas next month, she said.

Exports could rebound to positive territory as oil prices recover and demand strengthens in some markets, she said, adding that the ministry had calculated an average monthly export value of $19 billion for the remainder of the year.

Somkiat Triratpan, director of the ministry’s Policies and Trade Strategies Bureau, said oil prices, the baht/US dollar exchange rate and global demand would be the main factors influencing exports in the coming months.

The ministry forecasts that the price of crude oil will continue to rise, but not above $60 per barrel, from an average at $42.50 last month. The average value of the baht during the first seven months of the year was 34.76 per US dollar.

According to the International Monetary Fund’s July report, global economic growth is expected to slow slightly this year, from 3.2 per cent to 3.1 per cent. The Kingdom’s import value last month declined 7.16 per cent year on year to $16.2 billion, while the trade surplus for the month came in at $1.21 billion, the Commerce Ministry reported. Import value in the first seven months totalled $108.92 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.78 per cent, resulting in a trade surplus of $13.62 billion. Exports to nearly every key market declined last month, except to the US, where there was flat growth, and to Australia, to which shipments increased slightly.