Under the new target, Thailand is expected to see export value between US$210.06 billion and $218.63 billion this year.

The new target is based on an average exchange rate of Bt35-37 per US dollar, compared with the earlier estimate of Bt36-38 per dollar.

Deputy Commerce Minister Suvit Maesincee said that after discussing the situation with the private sector, the ministry had decided that exports this year could, at worst, shrink by 2 per cent or, at best, expand by the same percentage. This is due to the sluggish global economy amid a changing Thai economic structure from relying mainly on export or trade in goods to trade in services and inward and outward investment. Thus exports will not grow as much as previously expected.

“The 5-per-cent figure was just a working target,” Suvit said, noting that in reality, export value declined by 2.28 per cent in the first eight months of this year.

He explained that global gross domestic product was expected to post its lowest growth in seven years at 3.1 per cent this year. Global GDP expanded by an average of 3.6 per cent annually from 2007 to 2011, dropping to 3.2 per cent a year from 2012 to 2015.

Average export growth in the world market has also declined con?tinuously from 10.1 per cent between 2007 and 2011 to minus 2.3 per cent from 2012 to 2015. As a result, Thailand’s exports will not grow as strongly as in previous years.

Suvit also said Thai exports could contract next year. With the changing world economic structure, Thailand would rely more on trade in services and support investment at home and abroad.

He said the government would strengthen its plans to promote trade in services, foreign investment, and innovation in order to add value to Thai GDP.