Kasikorn Research Centre said that although some economic data signalled improvements, such as somewhat stronger domestic consumption and private in-vestment, they would have little impact |on this year’s growth in gross domestic product, which the house forecasts at 3 per cent. The main growth drivers for the remainder of the year are tourism, agriculture, and increasing government investment.

“The country’s political risk is also relaxed, which is a good sign for improved confidence, so the MPC can maintain the policy rate at 1.50 per cent,” KResearch said.

An HSBC economist said the bank |had pushed back its rate-cut call to next quarter and expected the Bank of Thailand to keep its policy rate unchanged this month.

Recent mixed data from major economies support the BOT’s “wait and see” stance, even if Thailand’s high-frequency data suggest a slowdown in most indicators, save for tourism, the economist said.

“We are pushing back our expectation of the rate-cut call to Q4 this year. Previously, we expected that the Bank of Thailand would cut its policy rate by another 25 basis points, to 1.25 per cent, in September, not least because of a weaker external environment, which would pose downside risks to exports and overall GDP growth,” she said.

Hence the HSBC economist still sees the probability of another 25-basis-point rate cut by the end of the year. The BOT still has room to ease further, with inflation appearing to return to the policy target of 1-4 per cent more slowly than expected.

“In fact, we are lowering our 2016 and 2017 inflation forecasts to 0.3 per cent and 2.0 per cent, from 0.7 per cent and 2.1 per cent previously, given recent downside surprises in energy and food prices, and the still-weak domestic demand.”