For this year, the ministry has projected export value of between US$210 billion and $218 billion, the first figure representing a 2-per-cent decline and the second figure marking expansion by the same percentage. This forecast is based on the expected average value of the baht at 35-37 against the US dollar and average Dubai oil price for the whole year at $35-45 per barrel.

A senior ministry source said export value next year should grow by at least 3 per cent as there were clearer signs of economic recoveries in many markets, particularly the United States, and stronger growth of emerging markets in Asia and the Middle East, Africa and Latin America.

“The 3-per-cent export-expansion target for next year is reachable,” the source said.

Deputy Commerce Minister Suvit Maesincee said exports would be driven by many strategies including support of trade in goods, services, outward investment, city focus, and promotion of innovation and technology.

Amid the changing global economic landscape, Thai trade officials will help drive not only export growth, but also trade in services and investment, he said.

During the meeting yesterday with overseas trade officials, six strategies were outlined to drive export next year. These were support for export of both goods and services along supply chains; promoting export via strategic partners; focus on high-margin products; promoting export via digital marketing or online trading; emphasis on innovative, creative and start-up enterprises; and deepening penetration of new markets.

In 2017, export value to every market is targeted to increase from this year.

Export value to the US is forecast to grow by 2.9 per cent, compared with 0.6 per cent this year. Exports to Latin America this year will shrink by 3.9 per cent, but next year’s contraction should be smaller at minus-0.1 per cent. Export to tThai exports he European Union will face flat growth both this year and next year.

Export growth to the Middle East, expected at 2.4 per cent this year, is forecast to improve to 3.3 per cent next year. Export to Africa, likely to decline by 8 per cent this year, should turn around to growth of 5 per cent.

Export growth to South Asia will rise from 0.5 per cent to 2 per cent, and to Asean from minus-0.8 per cent this year to growth of 2.5 per cent in 2017. Export to Australia will continue to grow by 5 per cent in 2017, which is also the expansion expected this year.

Exports to East Asian markets will grow slightly next year. Export growth to mainland China will improve from 1 per cent to 3 per cent, to Hong Kong from 1.4 per cent to 2 per cent, to Taiwan from a flat growth this year to 3 per cent next year, and to Japan from flat growth to 1 per cent next year.

Exports to South Korea will be flat in 2017, compared with 3-per-cent expansion expected this year.