For the rest of this year, exporters expect exchange-rate fluctuations will still be cause for concern, while oil prices will continue to rise. Some expect to benefit in the fourth quarter from the year-end festive season.

However, they believe their longer-term strengths will include correct business strategies, value creation, innovation, and targeting the right markets.

Exports of many products are expected to be stronger in the final quarter of the year after signs of recovery in August.

Agricultural products and processed foods

In the food sector, the value of exports this year is expected to grow by 5 per cent to US$17.1 billion (Bt604 billion), after increasing in the first eight months by 2 per cent year on year to $11.5 billion.

Stronger food exports have been driven by frozen and processed chicken, shrimp and tuna. Chicken exports this year are expected to grow by 5 per cent to $2.25 billion.

However, a shortage of raw materials will hold back seafood exports in the remaining months despite rising orders.

Poj Aramwattananont, chairman of the Thai Frozen Foods Association, said more orders had been placed for Thai seafood to supply many markets during the festive season in the fourth quarter. However, because of the shortage of raw materials, the full-year value of seafood-product exports is expected to be unchanged from last year’s $4.03 billion.

He said shrimp exports were expected to grow in the remaining months as many of Thailand’s rivals were still facing a supply shortage due to disease. The value of Thai shrimp exports this year is expected to increase by 12 per cent to $1.62 billion.

Chanintr Chalisarapong, president of the Thai Tuna Industry Association, said tuna export was expected to face flat growth this year because of the stronger baht, while the cost of production, mainly tinplate prices, had increased.

This year’s export value for canned and processed tuna is expected to grow by just 0-1 per cent to $1.99 billion.

Vegetable and fruit exports are expected to grow by 3 per cent to $1.59 billion.

In volume terms, rice export this year is expected to grow by 9 per cent to 9.5 million tonnes.

Industrial sector

Automobile exports this year are expected to decrease by 1 per cent from last year’s value of $31.3 billion.

Malee Choklumlerd, director-general of the Commerce Ministry’s International Trade Promotion Department, said key auto producers had advised the department that export of vehicles would not grow this year. However, manufacturers foresee stronger growth next year.

To promote the growth of automobile exports, manufacturers will seek new markets to compensate for shrinking in the Middle East. Markets with potential are Asean countries, India, Australia, Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States, and Latin America, especially Mexico. Exports of jewellery and ornaments are expected to contract by 1 per cent this year as many countries have experienced slow economic growth, while terrorism has hit consumer confidence.

Vibul Hongsrichinda, president of the Thai Silver Exporters Association, said the sluggish economies of many countries would have an impact on the gems and jewellery trade excluding gold, while traders expected a brighter outlook next year.

However, he noted that while sales of expensive jewellery were in difficulty due to consumers wanting to save their money to spend on other things, sales of lower-end gemstones and fashionable ornaments had continued to rise.

For lifestyle products, export value is expected to recover to growth of 3.5 per cent this year, largely driven by the upcoming year-end holiday season.

Supat Sriwannavit, president of the Thai Lifestyle Products Federation, which comprises eight associations, said orders in the fourth quarter would be worth about $2.8 billion – reversing the contraction of about 2 per cent in the first eight months of the year.

Thai lifestyle products include furniture, kitchenware, gifts, home decor, textiles for homes, toys and stationery.

Supat said that in this segment Thailand was known for its good quality, creative designs, good after-sales service, and prices that were still competitive despite being higher than China’s.

“Traditional markets have kept ordering Thai goods, despite the proportion declining after the global economic slowdown, as Thai products are known for their good quality. Many new markets are also interested in ordering Thai lifestyle products as the prices are not too high,” he said.