Deputy Commerce Minister Suvit Maesincee said yesterday that the year could post flat export growth, or only a slight contraction. “The oil price is tending to increase, driving up export [value] of many products including by-products of oil and agricultural products in the rest of the year,” he said.

Export value in the first eight months was still down by 1.2 per cent year on year to $141 billion.

Other organisations are looking for a contraction of 2 per cent for the whole year.

To end up with a 1-per-cent shortfall for the whole year, shipments in the remaining months should run at least $17.8 billion a month.

For flat growth, each month must show export value of $18.3 billion.

In the best case, if export value for the remaining months hits $19 billion a month, Thailand could enjoy annualised growth of 0.3 per cent.

During August, imports slipped slightly by 1.5 per cent on year to $16.69 billion. Thailand logged a trade surplus of $2.12 billion last month.

Despite declining imports in general, imports of raw and semi-raw materials increased last month by 3.9 per cent, showing that exports could start picking up, as demand for materials to support manufacturing and the export sector improves.

Import value in the first eight months decreased by 8.8 per cent to $125.62 billion, leaving a trade surplus of $15.38 billion for the period.

Last month, shipments increased on strong expansion of many industrial goods, particularly vehicles, machinery, and electronics and electrical appliances, while agricultural products still weakened slightly.

All overseas markets wanted more Thai merchandise last month. Demand from China grew by 4.4 per cent, the best performance in 32 months.

Japan was up 5.7 per cent, Asean 2.6 per cent, Cambodia-Laos-Myanmar-Vietnam 0.3 per cent, and the United States 14.9 per cent.

Malee Choklumlerd, director-general of the International Trade Promotion Department, said the Commerce Ministry would set up a meeting with key industries soon to discuss an export-promotion strategy and reduction of obstructions to shipments in the future.

Targeted industries are food, jewellery, automobiles and parts, and electronics.