Thanong Bidaya, who was finance minister for several months in 1997, told a seminar held by Talis Asset Management that the global economy was entering a crossroads and that a “cycle of economic recession” could return.

“I still believe it won’t yet happen next year but [the economy] will slow down. But how much it will slow and what will happen after that …” he said.

“What could pull things down further is the violence in the Middle East, which is very scary and has already spread all over the world.”

Prapas Tonpibulsak, chief investment officer of Talis, shared the same view, citing past records that major recessions had occurred every 10-12 years.

In 1997, a major international financial crisis began in Thailand, and another in 2008 in the United States. If it happens again in 2018, where will it begin? he wondered. “From now on, on the very high-risk [scenario], investments must be rather conservative. The crash will certainly come, sooner or later, more or less.”

Prapas said he had increased his cash holding to 95 per cent of his total investment portfolio, a personal record. Just two years ago, the cash portion was 40 per cent.

“I’m fearing what everyone else fears,” he said, referring to a “domestic factor” on which he would not elaborate.

“Personally, I’m also preparing for the [SET Index to hit] 1,200,” added the Talis executive.

Thanong said he now had only one telecom stock as his major equity holding, after shifting much of his equity investment into the hands of Talis, which is a professional fund manager, and raised his cash holding.

“I think keeping cash [can do] no harm. There will be more and more things on offer for us to buy,” he said.

Thanong said he was keeping his cash available for a future chance to buy properties near the mass transit system and stocks at good prices in the future.

Meanwhile, the ex-finance minister said he worried that there could be a further delay in the injection of government money into the economic system because of the investment method it uses for its infrastructure projects.