Pimchanok Wornkorporn, deputy director-general of the Commerce Ministry’s Policies and Trade Strategies Bureau, said yesterday that export value this year should be between US$212.2 billion and $214.3 billion. That would be a contraction of zero to 1 per cent, less severe than other predictions of a 2-per-cent shrinkage.
The ministry reported that exports in September grew for the second straight month by 3.43 per cent to $19.46 billion (Bt668.93 billion) in value, while imports surged by 5.57 per cent, increasing for the first time in four months, to $16.91 billion in total value.
The country locked in a trade surplus of $2.54 billion last month.
In the first nine months of this year, exports fell slightly, by 0.65 per cent, to $160.46 billion, while imports slumped by 7.27 per cent to $142.53 billion, leaving a trade surplus of $17.92 billion.
Pimchanok said it was very possible that exports would expand strongly during the remaining months thanks to recovering demand in many markets – the Middle East being an exception – along with higher oil prices, which would drive up the value of oil by-product exports.
To end up with flat growth for the whole year, exports need to be worth at least $18.2 billion a month, or grow by 3.22 per cent.
For a 1-per-cent contraction, exports each month must be worth at least $17.2 billion.
Last month, exports increased after strong shipment expansion of many industrial goods, particularly transistors, machinery, chemical products and electrical appliances, while exports agricultural products including rice, shrimp, fruits and vegetables also increased.
Exports to all markets trended up last month, except to the Middle East.