After yesterday’s monthly meeting, committee chairman Isara Vongkusolkit said the 4.4-per-cent decline in overseas shipments in October could result in a full-year export contraction of 1 per cent, or flat growth.
Moreover, the weakening of the Malaysian ringgit could affect Thai export competitiveness.
“The economy could grow below the previous projection of between 3.3 per cent and 3.5 per cent this year, due to weakening shipments. However, the committee is confident of seeing economic growth of 3.5 to 4 per cent next year,” he said.
Factors of concern for next year are the new trade policy of US president-elect Donald Trump, the direction that the Federal Reserve takes on the US policy interest rate, increased oil prices, elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany, and uncertainty over economic growth in the European Union, he explained.
Isara said the key engines driving the economy next year would be the government’s Bt422-billion budget disbursement and investment projects, the handout to 8 million poor people, and tax-deduction measures in relation to shopping and travelling – with the latter measures alone injecting as much as Bt30 billion to Bt40 billion into the economy at the end of this year and the beginning of 2017.
The JSCCIB chairman also said the private sector expected the government’s payment of Bt100 billion to 18 provinces from February to September next year should help stimulate the economy by another half a percentage point.
As to export performance next year, the committee foresees growth in the region of zero to 2 per cent.
Isara said private enterprises expected the domestic economy would witness a clear recovery in the second and third quarters of next year, although the agricultural sector would continue to struggle the most due to uncertainty over crop prices.
The private sector also foresees lower profits and sales next year, while selling prices are expected to remain unchanged.
Meanwhile, the joint committee has called for the government and the Bank of Thailand to facilitate financial transactions via commercial banks between Thailand and Iran, following the US announcement in January of the lifting of sanctions on the Middle Eastern country.