Age before beauty? For the Nationals, age is beauty. #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

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Age before beauty? For the Nationals, age is beauty.

Jan 05. 2020
By The Washington Post · Thomas Boswell · SPORTS, BASEBALL 

The World Series champion Washington Nationals began the New Year with two main problems. One was big: Who plays third base now that Anthony Rendon is gone? And perhaps even bigger: How do you fix one of the five worst bullpens of the past half-century?

To address these issues, the Nats targeted two free agents who’ve been exceptional in recent years, but who are also often viewed as perilously close to baseball old age by much of the sport.

One was Houston reliever Will Harris, who has a spectacular 2.36 ERA over the past five seasons. The Nats signed him Thursday for $24 million for three years. “They made me a priority from the beginning,” said Harris, who had a 1.50 ERA in 68 games last season for the Astros.

The other is third baseman Josh Donaldson, who hit 37 homers last year in Atlanta. The Nats now are in a nine-figure bidding war for him with the Braves, Twins and maybe the Dodgers.

If the Nats land both, watch out.

Washington would be well-loaded for its title defense with a third baseman almost as good as Rendon and a reliever who could catalyze a major bullpen improvement.

If the Lerner’s need bidding motivation, just consider how easily the Nats can complete a powerful roster – if Donaldson is part of it. Add a solid middle reliever, bring back Ryan Zimmerman to platoon at first base with Howie Kendrick, put free agent Starlin Castro – who agreed Friday to a two-year deal worth $12 million – at second base, and saddle up.

Castro, 29, who played 162 games in Miami last year with 22 homers, 86 RBI but a mediocre .736 OPS, is basically a younger, durable and inexpensive upgrade on Brian Dozier. His arrival means the only remaining need is third base.

Donaldson aside, the addition of Harris is crucial. It’s risky because Harris is 35, but the Nats place a value on experience.

Since 2015, Harris has the game’s third-best ERA of any reliever behind Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman and just ahead of Josh Hader and Kenley Jansen. He’s durable, with a combination of a nasty cutter and killer curveball that makes him equally effective against lefties and righties. The coming rule that relievers must face a minimum of three hitters only adds to his value.

If the Nats are wrong, they wasted, at most, 1/10th of the contracts just given to Stephen Strasburg and Rendon. And they did little damage to their future roster-building flexibility. But if they are right, they got a steal.

Nats fans remember Harris for the homers he allowed to Rendon and Kendrick in the last two games of the World Series. But if Harris pitches as he usually has, D.C. fans may gain a new perspective on him. Houston became so addicted to Harris that they used him an exhausting 80 times, including 12 appearances in October. Even then, Kendrick had to hit a perfect cutter low and away and conk that foul pole, too.

Late-bloomers are often underrated around baseball. The sport loves 21-year-old phenoms who project as possible hall of famers but turns up its nose at men who don’t become elite players until nearing age 30.

That’s one reason many fans would not guess that Donaldson, 34, has been the second-best player in the majors – by WAR – the past seven years, trailing only Mike Trout. Donaldson, the 2015 AL MVP when he was with Toronto, was invisible until he was 27.

Even fewer fans could tell you how highly Harris has ranked among all relievers in ERA – in part because he barely registered on the game’s radar until he was 30. In the past five years, he’s also 11th in expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) and 16th in fielding independent pitching (FIP), further evidence that his low ERA is bona fide.

Counterintuitive as it is, getting an outstanding reliever like Harris may be just as essential an offseason fix as getting a star to replace Rendon. Why? The gap between Rendon and an average third baseman – say 20 homers, 75 RBI and a decent glove – is large. In analytics terms, as much as 30 or 40 runs in a team’s run differential.

Who might Mr. Average be? Before coming to the Nats late last season, Asdrúbal Cabrera started 93 games at third base for Texas with adequate range, few errors and a knack for starting double plays. He ended up 2019 with 18 homers and 91 RBI in 131 games. He can also help at second and first base. You could probably get Cabrera back, at a modest price, with one phone call.

Or, if the Nats don’t trade for a third baseman (like Kyle Seager), they could move their top prospect, 22-year-old Carter Kieboom, to third – a gamble since he’s played only 10 games there in the minors.

Now look at the impact that an average bullpen – just mediocre (4.35 ERA in ’19) – would mean to the Nats. It’s easy math: a decent pen means an improvement of about 73 runs. Or twice the impact of the 30-to-40-run gap between Rendon and an average man at third.

Also, the Nats’ untrustworthy relievers worked 500 2/3 innings, the least in MLB. That taxed the starting pitchers. An average pen worked 90 more innings than the Nats’ relievers did last year.

That is why signing Harris – the last impressive, consistent and durable reliever on the market – was so important. Without him, the path to that “decent bullpen” might not have existed. Now, with reliable closer Sean Doolittle, plus Tanner Rainey and Wander Suero, the Nats may be one or two arms from a representative bullpen.

Could that additional valuable pitcher be Daniel Hudson? If the Nats don’t land Donaldson, they’ll have so much payroll room under the competitive balance tax threshold, that I would certainly hope so.

Then the Nats might have the all-time ironic bullpen. Siting side-by-side on some summer night might be Harris, who took the Game Seven loss, and Hudson, who will be hugged long into old age by Nats fans for the moment he fired his glove in joy after his final strikeout pitch in that Game 7.

For weeks, the buzz has been whether the Nats would land Donaldson. Barely a word was uttered about Harris. But which one did General Manager Mike Rizzo sign first? “They seemed the most bullish on me than any team,” Harris said.

Some things are beyond a team’s control – like the free agent market skyrocketing to the point that the Nats didn’t think it wise to pay $245 million each to Strasburg and Rendon. Teams also can’t control where players want to be in their heart of hearts. Rendon sure seemed happy to become an Angel. And Donaldson may have warm feelings toward staying a Brave.

But by acting early and with conviction, there are some factors you can control. For example, you can lay the cornerstone in building a much better bullpen. Signing Harris was not just a first step.

It was a big one.

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