ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation
Exports this month could reverse direction and post slight growth to about US$18 billion from $17.24 billion last January after slipping last year to their lowest level in six years, by 5.8 per cent to $241.37 billion (Bt7.22 trillion).
“Exports last year contracted more than expected because the much lower oil price in the global market cause lower trade in the world and in Thailand, as oil and by-products from oil account for 11 per cent of total exports for the country,” Somkiat Triratpan, director of the Trade and Strategy Bureau at the Commerce Ministry, said yesterday.
Imports for all of 2015 also contracted to a level unseen in six years, by 11.0 per cent to $202.65 billion. That left Thailand with a trade surplus of $11.72 billion, the ministry said in a report.
Exports in 2009 crashed by 14.3 per cent during the US-led global financial crisis.
For this year the ministry expects exports to strengthen to growth of 5 per cent to $225 billion on the expected recovery in the global economy.
However, the continued softening in global oil prices will slow down world trade and Thailand’s shipments, since the purchasing power of many countries will be weakened.
According to the International Monetary Fund, global oil prices are expected to average $42.50 per barrel, down from $51.60 last year. However, the oil price has fallen to as low as $25 per barrel this month.
Exports in January could show some improvement if oil rebounds slightly.
Last year, exports of agro-industrial goods declined by 7.4 per cent and other industrial goods by 4 per cent.
Rice shipments retreated by 10.7 per cent in volume to 9.79 million tonnes and by 15.2 per cent in value to $4.61 billion. Rubber export volume was up 7.2 per cent to 3.65 million tonnes, but value was down 16 per cent to $5.05 billion.
Exports of automobiles and parts rose by 2.4 per cent, but those of electronic goods dipped 1.3 per cent last year.
Exports to most markets decreased last year. The exceptions were Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam (7.7 per cent), Australia (5.3 per cent) on higher demand for imported vehicles after it shut down automobile plants, the United States (0.7 per cent) and Latin America (0.6 per cent).