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Limited impact on US seen from China tariffs
Economy April 04, 2018 01:00
By THE NATION
MOODY’S Investors Service believed that China’s new retaliatory tariffs on US exports, announced on April 1, will not have serious macroeconomic impact on the United States if it is measured in terms of dollars of US exports affected relative to total US exports.
However, for firms, sectors and localities that depend on revenues from exports of items targeted by the tariffs, the impact will be more significant, Moody’s Investors Service said yesterday.
This is following the tariffs China announced on 128 categories of imports affect a variety of sectors ranging from foodstuff, such as pork, to industrial goods.
As we have noted before, the importance of tariff announcements by both the US and China lies in what they may portend for overall bilateral trade and investment relations between the two countries. Moreover, the US and China are the world’s largest economies and they play a large role in global trade, production supply chains and investment. Therefore, their policy actions would likely have global macroeconomic and credit implications.
Although the macroeconomic impact of tariffs may appear limited when measured by the dollar value of goods affected, if such tariffs are seen by global market participants as signaling an escalation in trade tensions, they will eventually have a broader macroeconomic impact by dampening market sentiment as well as business investment decisions.
Financial markets have demonstrated their sensitivity to trade announcements over the past several weeks. However, whether actual domestic or cross-border business investment in particular sectors slows down as a result of rising trade tensions is yet to be seen, Moody said.