Some Malaysian firms to take a hit if Brexit happens

ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

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A Sime Darby logo is on display at the entrance to its plantation in Sepang outside Kuala Lumpur./Reuters

 

Business Desk
The Star
HOME ASEAN&BEYON AEC FRI, 17 JUN, 2016 1:00 AM

KUALA LUMPUR – A Brexit from the European Union (EU) will negatively impact Malaysian companies with assets there including Sime Darby Bhd, YTL Corp Bhd and Genting Malaysia Bhd.

These companies are involved in property developments, regulated assets and casino operations.

Maybank Investment Bank Research said a potentially slower UK economy (or even a recession) and a weaker British pound resulting from a Brexit would be negative but the impact on Malaysian public-listed companies would be limited to just a few.

Within its research coverage, major Malaysian investments in the UK are in property developments (Battersea by SP Setia Bhd, Sime Darby), regulated assets (YTL Power), casino operations (Genting Malaysia), and renewable energy (KNM Group).

“A potentially slower UK economy could affect future take-ups at Battersea but positively, the project has locked in sizeable sales (which have yet to be recognised) totalling 1.6 billion pounds (US$2.27 billion) or 18.3 per cent of its total gross development value.

“But a weaker pound should result in lower Malaysian ringgit profits (from the foreign exchange impact and margins).

“Based on our sensitivity analysis, a 10 per cent weakness in the pound/ringgit from our base case would impact our financial year 2017 net profit estimates for SP Setia and Sime Darby lower by 3.5 per cent and 1.1 per cent respectively,” the research house noted.

Battersea’s combined take-up rate averages 85 per cent, with an unbilled sales of 1.6 billion pounds as at end-Dec 2015.

The total development cost incurred as at end-Dec 2015 was 7.88 billion ringgit (US$1.92 billion), while the net asset value was 2.80 billion ringgit, according to SP Setia’s latest annual report.

Maybank Investment said the impact of slower future take-ups would show in the earnings only from 2020, potentially affecting the remaining unsold units of phase 3A and the yet-to-be launched phases.

A potentially slower UK economy should not impact demand much at Wessex but it could affect visitors and collections at Genting Malaysia’s UK operations, it noted. A potentially weaker pound should result in lower translated ringgit profits and investment values.

Based on the research firm’s sensitivity analysis, a 10 per cent weakness in the pound/ringgit from its base case would impact net profit estimates for YTL Power and Genting Malaysia lower by 7 per cent and 0.8 per cent respectively.

YTL Power bought into Wessex Water in 2002, and this year marks the 25th year of Wessex’s privatisation.

Wessex is a significant investment to YTL Power – its net asset value of 1.85 billion ringgit as at end-Jun 2015 made up 16 per cent of group net asset value, while its earnings contribution was larger at 74 per cent of group pre-tax profit last year.

Meanwhile, Genting Malaysia UK operations had a net asset value (before interest bearing instruments) of 4.91 billion ringgit as at end-December 2015, which made up 24 per cent of group net asset value (before interest bearing instruments).

At the topline, the UK operations contributed 16 per cent to group turnover in financial yaer 2015 but at the bottomline, the UK operations were loss-making due to low VIP hold rate, bad debts and pre-opening expenses at Resorts World Birmingham.

As for KNM’s Peterborough project, the brokerage added that a slower UK economy should not significantly impact the project’s financials.

Maybank Research said it had yet to reflect any earnings impact from this project in its forecasts for KNM.

Global markets are increasingly jittery ahead of the Brexit referendum on June 23 after recent polls suggest that the odds are tilting towards a “leave”, rather than a “remain” outcome.

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