There will be significant changes within the supranational EU body, but the changes will not be immense enough to cast shadows over other regional entities like Asean, Muhadi Sugiono an international-relations expert at Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, said before the final results of the poll were announced.

The most concerning thing about Brexit is that it might propel other countries to exit from the EU, even though the probability of such a contingency is quite low, he added.

Not fully involved

The United Kingdom has never been fully involved in the EU. The British opposed replacing the pound sterling with the euro and opted out of the passport-free Schengen Agreement to try to maintain its borders. Nonetheless, the EU still works despite leaving its second-biggest economy out of a number of important requirements, Muhadi said.

“In fact, considering that the EU and Asean rely more on regional frameworks for their cooperation, any impact to the partnership following Brexit will be minimal,” he explained.

On the other side, the UK will suffer more from a separation than the EU itself as it will no longer be able to ride on its partnerships with other countries. Britain might have to renegotiate several arrangements with Asean, Muhadi said.

The EU is Asean’s biggest investor, at around 14.8 billion euros (Bt582 billion) per year on average. The EU and Asean trade with each other to the tune of 200 billion euros a year.

The EU’s main exports to Asean are chemical products and machinery and transport equipment. Asean’s main exports to the EU are agricultural products and textiles and clothing. The UK is a strategic trading partner for Asean member states.

Yose Rizal Damuri, head of economic research at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) based in Jakarta, said there could be both positive and negative impacts from Brexit.

On the negative side, Yose said some economists predicted that the UK would experience a decline in its economic development.

The UK is one of the main export destinations in Europe for most Asean countries and it is also the top destination for Indonesia when it comes to export destinations in Europe, he said.

“With a negative impact on the UK’s economy, it will certainly cause an impact on Asean countries exporting to the UK,” Yose said. “But there are others [economists] who also say that it [the UK’s economy] would expand instead. It’s a mixed review.”

Meanwhile, on the positive side, Yose said Brexit would open up the chance for the UK to open new trade agreements freely with other countries such as those in the Americas without having to wait for the EU’s approval.