EITHER of the two US presidential candidates – Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump – would have both positive and negative impacts on Asean, said chief editor of the Wall Street Journal Gerard Baker yesterday.

Speaking at a discussion “Trump or Clinton? America’s Choice in 2016, What will it mean to the world and global economy?”, the editor said the major difference between the two candidates lie in their foreign policy. While Clinton was anticipated to be more assertive, Trump would be quite the opposite.

He cited Clinton’s role in the Obama administration as Secretary of State, which he said made it likely she would continue the US “pivot” to Asia in response to the rise of China and Beijing’s contentious land claims in the South China Sea.

Many Asean nations were calling on the US to do more, Baker said. And Clinton supported that, he said.

Also because the US was seen as a world superpower ‘in a declining state’, the chief editor said it could be expected that Clinton would be assertive.

On the other hand, Trump had announced a different foreign policy stance, Baker said. If he was to lead the US, the country would not engage much in the outside affairs.

Whether their positions would be healthy or not for Asia, Asean, and Thailand, Baker said it depended on the each person’s viewpoint.

However, thanks to a strong and reliable checks and balance system, the world would not fall apart, whoever wins the presidential election, he said.

Asked by Nation Multimedia Group’s Advisor to the Editorial Board Suthichai Yoon, how the Thai people should prepare for the outcome in November, he said people could just “keep calm and carry on”.

Apart from that, Baker explained the US election this year was one of the most extraordinary and recent polls suggested the two candidates were neck-and-neck.

The outcome was unpredictable, he said. It would depend on how the Americans overcome their feelings in the poll, he said.

“It comes down to whether people overcome their mistrust in Clinton because they are so fearful of Trump or whether or not they overcome their fear of Trump because they are so mistrustful of Clinton,” he said.

Both candidates widely disliked

He went on to explain that this was one election where both candidates were widely disliked by voters. So, they would vote not because they favoured a candidate but because they disliked the other one more, Baker noted.

The editor refused to say clearly who would win the election, saying it was actually unpredictable.

He highlighted two major factors that could determine the election result. One was the change in demography which involved the increasing number of Hispanic and Asian – the less white – voters, he said. In this aspect, the Democrats had more advantages.

The other factor was the strong desire for change among Americans. They have grown dissatisfied with the poor economy and chaos in the world, such as the wars in the Middle East, he said, adding that they saw the US was losing its primacy or authority in the world.

These people wanted to see changes and they were more likely to vote for Trump who campaigned to “make America great again,” Baker said.