The Trump presidency and his policy towards Asia dominated much of the dozen or so topics discussed at the meeting attended by more than 350 leading international businesspeople, government officials and academics at the Shangri-La Hotel.
Participants at the Horasis Asia Meeting, billed as one of the biggest international business conferences in Thailand this year, agreed that Asia and the world would undergo huge changes – not just with the surprise victory of Trump but also in regard to a needed populist agenda for those who have missed out on the benefits of globalisation.
And China and Russia are set to play a significant role in upcoming geopolitical developments, some speakers at the conference suggested.
“We are in a changed context,” said John Denton, CEO of Corrs Chambers Westgarth from Australia, who asserted that Asia and the world are bracing for a collapse of old security alliances.
He suggested that Asian nations should allow for more strategic space for China’s political priorities “such as importance attached to the party congress rather than Trump’s [government]. With this, China should accept the long-time geopolitics that underpinned stability in Asia. If the geopolitics is not in place, nothing else matters.”
Kobsak Chutikul, Asian Peace and Reconciliation Council’s secretary-general, said Southeast Asian nations have enjoyed choices under “Pax Americana” in the region, but if the “choice is taken away we will feel the pressure … nobody know what will happen in 2017”.
A more optimistic note came from Chitra Narayanan of the Switzerland-based Geneva Centre for Security Policy, predicting that “stability will always be there and Asia has a way of dealing with it”. She cited the seemingly ongoing accommodating relations between China and India.
A wish list presented at a session joined by businesspeople from India, Japan, Myanmar, the Philippines and Nigeria, presided over by Horasis chairman Frank-Jurgen Richter, included “stability, harmony, dialogue, peace, prosperity, creativity and innovation, inclusiveness”.
These were echoed by “trust”, which speakers at another session said was fast eroding to an extent due to government and business relations.
Alastair Campbel, chairman of Bridger Hong Kong, said the tradition of trust was breaking down between people and ruling elites.
Trust, he said, comprises the rule of law, cultural norms and agreement frameworks – while the world now knows Western values and US domination are giving way to a new environment.
China and Russia will play a significant role, Campbel said, adding that neither had a “set menu” for international relations. The challenge is “how to establish trust for the world so that there is less volatility”.
Kriengsak Chareonwongsak, president of Institute of Future Studies for Development, Thailand, saw “constructive engagement” and “flexible engagement” as practised by Asean members as a means to rebuild trust. But other speakers were less confident in Asean’s ability to meet the challenges facing Asia.
Adam Schwarz, CEO of Asia Group Advisors, sounded an optimistic note, saying Asia Pacific was a region largely at peace although political tensions existed, which could not be said of other parts of the world.
He added that while dialogue must be stepped up, there was a lack of trust in regional institutions persisting as people have been unwilling in the past to invest in confidence-building bodies. Such a situation leaves Asia subject to “leadership changes and political whims”.