Duterte’s action would be unilateral and thus potentially represent a big loss for the Philippines, whose fishermen would be barred from the sanctuary. It is not yet clear whether China, the other main claimant, would reciprocate by instructing its own fishing fleet to steer clear of the lagoon.
Duterte disclosed the idea to Chinese President Xi Jinping when they met on November 19 on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Peru.
Why he chose to go it alone rather than negotiate a joint plan on the sanctuary with Beijing remains a mystery. After all, Duterte recently forged a rapprochement with China and is now on good terms with its leaders.
Scarborough Shoal is better known to Filipinos as Panatag, an area they have fished for generations. That practice ended in 2012 when China seized the shoal, before the Chinese Coast Guard relented last month and offered Filipino fishermen access as a gesture amid warmer ties following Duterte’s Beijing trip.
Duterte wants to preserve the Shoal as a spawning ground and envisions the ban extending to Chinese boats. However, Filipino fishermen have voiced opposition to the plan, complaining it would eradicate a major source of their income and at the same time hand jurisdiction to the Chinese Coast Guard.
Nonetheless Duterte has taken the initiative in the South China Sea, which is the focus of longstanding disputes between countries in the region.
Beijing’s claim to as much as 90 per cent of the contested waters encompasses territories also claimed by the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei.
At stake are huge oilfields reckoned to lie beneath the seabed, though so far no country in the region has tested that theory.
Instead, the territory disputes are currently being driven by competition over rich fisheries. Even Indonesia, which has no overlapping territorial claims, has been drawn into the game and is contesting fishing rights with China.
The South China Sea catch grew from 8 per cent of the world total in 1988 to 35 per cent by 2010, according surveys.
The waters are home to at least 3,365 species of fish, and in 2012 the catch here was worth US$21.8 billion.
Most of the trawlers come from China, the Philippines and Vietnam. These three countries alone account for more than 330,000 South China Sea fishing vessels, according to a study conducted by the University of British Columbia last year. Together they provide employment for more than 1.8 million fishermen, it said.
The sea has been witness to periodic stand-offs and clashes between Chinese Coast Guard and trawlers from the Philippines and Vietnam. Exacerbating tensions is the programme of land reclamation and artificial-island building launched by China in disputed shoals and atolls in recent years.
While countries in the region seek solutions to their territorial conflicts, fish stocks are declining in the face of increased competition from their trawler fleets. Duterte’s plan is the seed of a potential resolution to both problems. But there will be no progress without cooperation from all sides.