WHILE the emergence of a new US administration under billionaire Donald Trump will not put serious pressure on the Thai military government regarding democratisation, diplomats and experts have urged the regime to balance ties between Washington and Beijing.

Thai-US bilateral relations, which mark their 184th anniversary this year, have been relatively sour since the 2014 coup against the elected civilian government. The outgoing administration of Barack Obama pushed the junta hard on politics and rights, plus suspended some military assistance.

With Trump scheduled to take office on Friday, very little still has been spelt out about his prospective policies towards Asean, let alone Thailand in particular.

Diplomats said a clearer picture would not emerge until the Trump administration appoints the most senior official who oversees East Asia affairs.

What can be anticipated so far depends on the character and style of Trump, his nominee for secretary of state Rex Tillerson, the former chief executive at ExxonMobil, and the Republican Party platform, analysts said.

Those indicators point to business-oriented policies as the Trump administration pays less attention to rights and democratisation, one Asian diplomat said on condition of anonymity. Thailand’s military regime would have certain level of comfort in dealing with the US on political issues, but would face tough engagement on economic matters, he said.

In the meantime, Trump has paid more attention to China, a powerhouse in Asia, as a critical competitor threatening American interests. The US hostility comes as Thailand notably leans towards China, with carefully cultivated deals in transportation, infrastructure development and military hardware.

While not knowing how much these circumstances will affect Trump’s view of the Kingdom, it would be wise for Thailand to stay balanced between the two powers and utilise available multilateral mechanisms, said Viboonpong Poonprasit, a political science lecturer from Thammasat University.

If forced to make a choice on serious issues such as the contentious South China Sea, the Kingdom should stay within the Asean consensus and follow the principle of non-interference, sticking to international law and maintaining a neutral stance, he said.

“Adhering to Asean is crucial for us,” he said “It is not only safer to speak in a consensus but also to keep ourselves from depending too much on either power.

“Trump’s ‘America First’ policies will only matter to the US domestic affairs,” the academic said. “Barack Obama’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ will likely be reduced significantly. Only economic talks will persist, which will actually fit Asean’s main activities and its diverse nature.”

Meanwhile, Washington’s impending abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade compact would allow the Kingdom to engage in more direct, bilateral talks with the western power. “The US’s exit will be a fair reason for Thailand not to jump into it,” Viboonpong said.

Dulyapak Preecharush, a lecturer in Southeast Asian Studies also at Thammasat, agreed that Thailand should maintain a balance between the US and China. “In fact, neither Thailand nor any Southeast Asia country has totally leaned towards China,” he said. “It is just a normal move that the Thai military regime had to turn to China more as the US was sticking to its democratising approach.”

The US still had a longstanding bond with Thailand, especially on security and military cooperation during the Cold War era. However, China’s geographical closeness to the Kingdom could be more important in many sectors because it allows room to strengthen connectivity.

The US domestic situation might cause Trump to shift focus, including away from democratisation. “Trump even showed that he is content with authoritarianism,” Dulyapak said. “This also correlates with current scenes in Southeast Asia, from Cambodian premier Hun Sen, Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte to Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha. They all share a like for top-down administrations.”

Despite Trump’s protectionism, he said the US would still want to maintain itself as a global superpower. “Neo-conservative Repub-licans might still scrutinise Thai politics, but there should be less pressure, allowing more room for talks to regain benefits.”