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Boris Johnson dials up warnings of a no-deal Brexit as Britain and E.U. agree to continue talks
InternationalDec 14. 2020
Boris Johnson
By The Washington Post · William Booth, Quentin Ariès
LONDON – At the 11th hour, Britain and the European Union said on Sunday afternoon they have made enough progress in their seemingly endless trade and security talks to continue negotiations into the coming days.
Many had feared Sunday was the final hour to reach a Brexit deal. But the talks will roll on. Businesses on both sides of the English Channel, fearing chaos at the ports and steep, immediate tariffs, sighed a collective, “whew, that was close!”
Prime Minister Boris Johnson, in a TV address, did not sound optimstic, however. “I’m afraid we’re still very far apart on some key things,” he said. “But where there is life there’s hope, we’re going to keep talking to see what we can do, the U.K. certainly won’t be walking away from the talks.”
Johnson warned “the most likely” outcome would see Britain leave the European Union with no deal, forcing it to trade on what the prime minister insists on calling “Australian terms,” which really means going forward with no free trade deal at all, but instead defaulting to do business by the rules set by the World Trade Organization.
Britain’s largest trading partner is Europe and so reverting to WTO rules means taxes, or tariffs, on exports sold to the continent. While overall, the average WTO tariff is less than 3 percent, for automobiles it is 10 percent and for fresh meat – such as Welsh lamb – it is 38 percent or higher.
In his remarks, the British prime minister might have been jostling for position. Or he might have been warning the nation.
“The best thing to do now, for everybody, is to follow up all the work that has been done over the last four and half years, colossal amount of preparation at our ports, everywhere across the U.K., get ready to trade on WTO terms,” said Johnson. “There is a clarity and a simplicity in that approach that has it’s own advantages. It is not where we wanted to get to but if we have to end up with that solution, the U.K. is more than prepared.”
Whether Britain is truly prepared to have its import and exports subjected to border controls, inspections and tarrifs is unknown. Many predict chaos at the ports.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was slightly less gloomy. She said it is worth trying to struggle on to a finish line.”We had a useful phone call this morning. We discussed the major unresolved topics,” the commisson president said.
Then she patted both sides on the back, noting, “our negotiating teams have been working day and night over recent days. And despite the exhaustion after almost a year of negotiations, despite the fact that deadlines have been missed over and over, we think it is responsible at this point to go the extra mile.”
And so, “we have accordingly mandated our negotiators to continue the talks and to see whether an agreement can even at this late stage be reached.”
The negotiations will continue, at least for now, in Brussels. Britain exits the European Union at midnight on Dec. 31.
The Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney, who has been a close observer of the talks, told the national broadcaster RTE on Sunday that “a deal can be done, but it really needs to be done within the next few days.”
Jitters of a no-deal “hard Brexit” have been dialed up, regardless.
The Guardian newspaper reported the British government “warned supermarkets to stockpile food and other essential supplies amid increasing fears of a no-deal Brexit in less than three weeks’ time.”
On the Sunday morning TV talk shows, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab sought to assure Britons that there would be enough medicines and vaccines in the country no matter what, because the government has already begun to stockpile supplies.
Meanwhile, Johnson’s government announced that four Royal Navy patrol ships would be ready to take to British waters to protect the country’s fishing grounds in the event of a no-deal Brexit. The vessels would be given the power to board and impound European fishing boats inside Britain’s 200-mile exclusive economic zone.
European Council President Charles Michel, on the French radio on Sunday, said the sides should keep calm and carry on. “The U.K. and Europe are friends, partners, allies and it will be the case after Brexit. I encourage everyone to remain calm. I would not say, like Donald Trump, that our boats are bigger than theirs, because I’m trying to be serious, but, on the European side at least we remain calm …We are reasonable. We want to have close links with the U.K.”
The impasse and issues have not changed over these many months. Britain wants to be able to “take back control” of its sovereignty – for many Brexiteers, that was the whole point of leaving the bloc. Johnson and his allies say it makes no sense to leave the customs union and single market, only to have to continue to align in lock-step with E.U. regulations over state subsidies, labor laws and enviromental regulations.
But Europe has appeared in little mood for compromise – especially over these “level playing field” challenges.
The disagreements have touched on areas that have been sore points for years – in some cases, centuries, like fisheries, specifically European access to British waters.
In addition to wrangling over cod and scallops, which represents far less than 1 percent of GDP to either Britain or Europe, the E.U. also doesn’t want Britain undercutting it on issues such as state aid or environmental regulations to gain a competitive advantage. It wants to make sure British rules stay closely aligned with E.U. ones as a prerequisite for Britain to get relatively unfettered access to the European market.
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