MAA forecast Malaysia’s total industry’s volume to drop by 2.5 per cent to 650,000 units in 2016 against last year.

The automotive industry has been growing for six consecutive years since 2010, peaking at a new all time total industry volume (TIV) high of 666,674 units last year, albeit at a marginal increase of 0.03 per cent against 2014.

MAA president Datuk Aishah Ahmad explained that its members forecast a less robust year for 2016 mainly due to the subdued global economic growth, uncertainties over the fall in crude oil price and the slowdown in China’s gross domestic products.

“Malaysia’s economy too is expected to expand at a slower pace of 4 per cent to 5 per cent this year and the ringgit will continue to impact business confidence and consumer sentiment.

“The persistent weak ringgit will continue to affect business confidence and consumer sentiment,” she said in a press briefing yesterday.

Another factor would be the tighter lending guidelines including for hire purchase loans but the authorities to rein in household debts.

“We hope that banks will look into a leaner hire purchase loan guidelines. As of now most banks have shortened the hire purchase repayment period up to maximum of seven years from the previous nine years.

“This is expected to have an impact on the lower income group buying power. Inevitable and expected price increase will also be a factor.

“But, some sub-segments of the private vehicles sales such as pick-up trucks, sport utility vehicles and luxury cars are expected to withstand the choppy waters ahead,” she said. Out of the projected TIV of 650,000 units, the MAA expected 575,250 to be passenger vehicles and the remaining 74,750 commercial vehicles.

This was in contrast with last year’s 666,675 units, of which 591,298 were passenger vehicles and the remaining 75,376 were commercial vehicles.

Aishah said 2015’s TIV growth was attributed to factors like stable economy and employment rate, sales increase in the fourth quarter, following normalisation in the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax, aggressive sales campaign, new offers and schemes for car buyers and introduction of new models.

National brandnames Perodua and Proton still conquered the two biggest chunks of market share at 32 per cent with 213, 307 units and 15.3 per cent with 102, 175 units respectively last year.

Honda was the top non-national brand at 14.2 per cent or 94,902 units, Toyota was a close 14.1 per cent at 93,760 units (of which 65,295 were passenger vehicles and the remaining 28,465 were commercial vehicles).

In third spot for non-national brands, Nissan was third with 7.1 per cent at 47,235 vehicles of which 41,941 were passenger vehicles and the rest of 5,294 commercial vehicles.

“We are praying for 2017 to be a better year,” she said.

For 2017, the MAA expects sales to rise 3 per cent to 669,500 from this year. TIV for 2018, it estimates TIV to rise 2.5 per cent on-year to 686,200 and for 2019 (702,000) and in 2020 (717,444).

According to 2015 market review, Perodua was the top seller with a share of 36.1 per cent when it sold 213,307 passenger vehicles followed by Proton with a market share of 15.3 per cent or 102,175 units. On the effects of the Transpacific Partnership Aggreement (TTPA) on the industry, Aishah did not expect many benefits except for those sourcing out from North America, Mexico and Canada to explore these new markets.