However, there are still uncertainties ahead. If you remember, after the first charter draft completed by Borwornsak Uwanno and other members of the Constitution Drafting Committee last year, many people were convinced there would be an election soon. But we had to go back to square one after the CDC draft was rejected by the National Reform Council. So, we cannot be completely confident this time.

Nobody can tell with certainty that the second draft written by Meechai Ruchupan and his team from the Constitution Drafting Commission will pass the national referendum scheduled for July.

This draft constitution has come under heavy criticism, even from activists and academics who had earlier voiced support for the junta. Detractors of the draft – particularly leaders of the red-shirt movement who back the old power clique led by the Pheu Thai Party – called on voters to reject the draft. For them, voting against the draft is a way to show their disapproval of the people in power.

Critics of the draft charter agree that it contains no clear guarantee on the rights and freedoms of individuals and communities. Such a guarantee should be a “selling point” for every new constitution written after a military coup in order to compensate the illegitimate and undemocratic process of abolishing an old constitution and writing a new one.

The drafters explained that they wanted the new constitution to be concise. The draft focused on prohibitions and therefore it did not mention matters that were not prohibited, they said. However, critics argued that without a written guarantee of rights and freedoms, the government could cite the fact that they were not required by law to ensure such rights and freedoms.

It would be interesting to see what would happen next if the draft constitution fails to pass the referendum. The post-coup interim charter has no clause to address this scenario.

There have been two assumptions in case the draft fails the national vote.

First, the process of constitution drafting starts all over again. That means the schedules of the original road map will have to be amended.

Second, the government led by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, who also heads the National Council for Peace and Order, writes a new constitution by themselves. And that charter does not need to be subject to any referendum. The second possibility is more likely. The road map will not delayed further, and this option is in line with General Prayut‘s insistence that the next general election will take place in July next year.

The second option will benefit the powers-that-be in two ways. First, many voters will feel they need to approve the Meechai team’s draft constitution, or the junta will come up with its own charter, which could be worse. Second, even if Meechai’s draft fails to pass the referendum, the people in power can still write a new constitution. So, either way they will gain.

Things should become clearer on this matter soon. At least, the junta will need to amend the interim charter in order to clarify certain clauses that are viewed as unclear. For instance, it is unclear what is required for the draft constitution to pass the referendum – the majority of voters who turn out or majority of total eligible voters.

And it is highly likely that the people in power will make it clear in the interim charter what should be done if the draft fails to pass the national vote. Political developments will become more interesting from now on.