Prayut’s India trip could tip balance

ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Prayuts-India-trip-could-tip-balance-30288158.html

BURNING ISSUE

Prayut

Prayut

The visit of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha this week should give India further opportunity to fulfill a desire for tighter bonds with Southeast Asia.

In the big picture, the Thai delegation’s three-day trip is expected to see stronger strategic links forged between our region and South Asia’s major powerhouse.

The Delhi government under Prime Minister Narenda Modi has turned the 25-year-old “Look East” policy into an “Act East” push aimed at deeper connections with its regional neighbour.

The Modi government implemented “Act East” in a bid to balance the influence of a rising China in the region.

However, Delhi’s strategic push is being outstripped by Beijing’s more aggressive southward policy, initiated around the same time. While China has already completed transportation routes linking its south and southwestern regions to Southeast Asia, India will need another year or so to open the delayed 1,400-kilometre highway running from its Northeast through Myanmar to Thailand.

The delays have been blamed on India’s notorious red tape, political changes, the insurgency along the border, and construction difficulties. But successive governments in New Delhi have never given up on this centrepiece of their grand strategy. The country could hardly turn its back on Southeast Asia, where its cultural and religious influence has run deep for centuries.

Southeast Asia has been dubbed a crossroads for Indian and Chinese culture. Hence it would be impossible for Delhi to cede all the ground to Chinese influence.

Senior Indian officials have made regular trips to the region over the years and Modi himself has visited Myanmar, Malaysia and Singapore since taking power in 2014, raising India’s profile in the region.

For India, Myanmar is an important gateway to Southeast Asia. The neighbours share a 1,463km border and also the challenge of insurgencies that run along its length. Policy mistakes made by Myanmar’s military regime after 1988 enabled Chinese influence to take root and left India struggling to gain a foothold in the country. Now, under Myanmar’s new civilian government, the balance seems to have swung back in favour of Modi since de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi needs to find a beneficial equilibrium between the two neighbouring giants.

In order to access Southeast Asia, New Delhi cannot afford to ignore Thailand, whose position at the centre of the mainland remains strategically important even if its role as regional leader is waning due to military rule.

Previous governments in Bangkok have forged several diplomatic instruments that are useful here. Together with Myanmar, Thailand is part of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperative (BIMSTEC), along with Bangladesh, Bhutan, Sri Lanka and Nepal. While BIMSTECT might not bear much fruit in terms of economic development cooperation, it is a good consultative forum for the region running west of Thailand. Meanwhile relations between Bangkok and Delhi are excellent, free of major conflict and have spawned a slew of cooperation projects – though some are progressing more slowly than envisaged.

While the current military-backed regime in Bangkok has been criticised for tilting to far towards Beijing, Thailand has never turned down cooperation with India and is unlikely to do so in the future.

Prayut‘s visit will see discussion on enhancing bilateral relations and expediting pending issues in all fields, especially politics and security, economics, culture, religion, education and multilateral affairs, according to a Foreign Ministry statement.

Ongoing projects such as routes to link the two regions, and a Thailand-India Free Trade Agreement, will also be discussed.

The Thai delegation will focus too on cultural links by travelling to Bodh Gaya for prayers at the sight of Lord Buddha’s enlightenment.

Thailand’s slowing economy also badly needs to hook up with Modi’s “Make in India” and “Smart Cities” initiatives, which offer huge opportunities for Thai trade and investment in the giant South Asian economy. Though Thai business already has some presence in India, Prayut‘s delegation must focus on how Thailand can exploit new Indian initiatives to benefit our own economy.

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