During its reign, the coup-installed government has attempted to set a foundation for cleaner politics and in the process cleanse politicians. The efforts include the controversial attitude-adjustment sessions from national to community level, which have been pursued since the early days of the 2014 power seizure .

They also include the crackdown on mafia figures or so-called influential people believed to be political canvassers, banning political activities and formulating political restructuring proposals in the constitution draft which will be voted on in two weeks.

Politics is in a tangled mess. The charter draft is seen by many as the holy grail. Its acceptance is vital to the political elite. But more than the content of the charter will be judged on referendum day. The regime, too, will be put to the test. And among the factors people take into consideration are how well the regime has done in tackling the problematic politicians after all this time.

Sirote Klampaiboon, an independent political scientist, said the NCPO had gone far beyond the people’s demands and had crossed the line.

“When the coup was staged, if there were any reason at all [to do so], it was that power corrupted. But now, the NCPO has come way farther than dealing with corruption. Rather than limiting the power, politicians are now being eradicated,” he said.

He explained that politics could be viewed as a free market where players competed to win votes. He said the new system provided by the draft constitution undermined that, disabling politicians from selling their policies to earn popularity with voters.

“Under the new structure, politicians can barely propose policies or direct the country. So, if you ask whether the public is satisfied by the NCPO’s work on this, I would have to say this is far beyond the satisfactory point,” the scholar said.

However, Sirote does not think this point alone matters in the referendum. In his opinion, how people vote will be based more on the overall picture they see.

“The referendum is more about whether or not people are satisfied with the NCPO in general. Surely if they did not like it, they will vote to punish it,” he said.

Sirote said he had observed that the number of dissidents had grown compared to two years ago when the regime came in. This was because of the NCPO’s poor performance, especially on the economy, and perhaps because of the personality or character of its leading figures as well.

Attasit Pankaew, a Thammasat University political science lecturer, believes the regime has done very little to improve politics despite its efforts and the public expectations.

There have not been any clear signs that the political landscape will change much after the NCPO steps down next year, he said, adding that voters have not received any signals that the behaviour of politicians has changed.

The lecturer explained that while actions had been taken against politicians, they appeared to have been used to only preserve the junta’s position.

“Some [politicians] might have been summoned for attitude adjustment. Many have been blocked from moving politically. But overall, all these are just for securing the regime’s immediate position and never for long-run politics,” Attasit said.

He predicted that the old political structure would be resurrected after the election. And the general public can feel this unchanged pulse, he added.

“I cannot tell whether or not the NCPO is disappointing people in this matter. But from how I see it, I think this is rather far from a referendum matter,” he said, implying that what he regards as the NCPO’s unsuccessful work in tackling the so-called corrupt politicians is not an influential factor for the charter vote.

Like Sirote, Attasit believed the referendum was about the big picture. He said that political hard cores most likely had already made up their minds on how they would vote. But those who are non-partisan may be looking at the NCPO’s image in general as well as the content of the charter.

“The swing voters will rely on public opinion leaders who are now highly limited by the authorities. And in the process, the swing voters could grow dissatisfied with the NCPO for seemingly being unfair to campaigners,” he explained.

Nipit Intrasombat, a veteran politician of the Democrat Party, said similarly that he did not feel the NCPO’s efforts had led to much impact, and agreed that voters would unlikely take that into account before deciding on the new charter.

The Democrat deputy leader said that because of the limited dissemination of information about the constitution, whether people vote on the referendum would be largely dependent on recommendations they received from someone they trusted, including ideology leaders and politicians.