Despite pushing hard for the charter draft to be approved, the junta still faces a tough task.

The Nation last week gathered the stances of concerned groups in society to find out who supports and who opposes the draft. We found the voice of the opposition to be louder.

Those who expressed a clear intention to vote “No” were Pheu Thai Party; the red-shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship; Democrat Party politicians siding with current leader Abhisit Vejjajiva; pro-democracy academics from the Nitirat group; 43 other civil society networks; the student-led New Democracy Movement and Resistant Citizens Group.

The “Yes” votes are from the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO); the Constitution Drafting Commission; the National Legislative Assembly; the People’s Democratic Reform Foundation led by Suthep Thaugsuban; pro-Suthep Democrat politicians and former yellow-shirt groups.

Although there are still a number of undecided voters, believed to be more than 50 per cent of the around 50 million eligible voters, and their vote could prove decisive, the junta should still be concerned about the stance of major political parties.

The Pheu Thai and Democrat parties won more than half of the total eligible votes – 15.7 million and 11.4 million respectively – in the previous party-list election. They have sent a strong message to the junta by opposing the draft, without caring if the next election would be delayed as a result of the draft being rejected in the referendum.

The parties’ stance would undoubtedly have an influence on their supporters.

Such voters will be casting their votes without considering whether the charter is good or bad for the country, whether it will help move the country forward, or whether it will make their lives better.

It appears that they are being forced to choose between democracy and dictatorship.

If you decide to vote “Yes”, you could be branded as favouring the military regime. But in reality, you could have been fed up with professional politicians who in your eyes have done nothing good for the country except further their own interests. They are also the main factor in the prolonged 10-year conflict.

In fact, you may be just a pro-democracy activist who believes the end justifies the means. You just want the general election to be held as per the road map and you do not want any delay because of a new round of charter writing.

If you vote “No”, you will be called anti-coup or anti-dictatorship. But in reality, you wanted to show your rejection of the NCPO and their legacy – the charter draft.

Your “No” vote may have been to enable the NCPO to stay in power for as long as possible. Your simple reason could be that you are fed up with corrupt politicians and don’t want to see an election being held until reforms ensure all the defects in the political system, including bad politicians, are eradicated. You are not certain if the party you hate would win the election again, or you may think the country is not ready for democracy yet.

The outcome of the referendum will see different interpretations on the legitimacy of the winners and losers, which will definitely have a huge political impact.

A “Yes” win could be claimed by coup supporters as legitimacy for the coup makers, as it would be seen as a rejection of the politicians and their supporters who had rejected the draft.

But if the “No” camp wins, the anti-coup movement would claim the junta has no legitimacy and they would certainly put pressure to ensure the junta has no say in the writing of a new draft. In a worst-case scenario, they might come out on the streets to oust the junta from power.

Whether the draft will pass or not, the deep division in society still remains and this time it would be a fight between democracy and dictatorship.

jintana@nationgroup.com