AS POLITICAL FACTIONS grapple to impose their notions on what the referendum result would mean in a final bid to influence voters, the labyrinth that is the charter poll will not really bring an end to the junta’s mission. Instead, it will just be a transition to a new phase in the long-standing power struggle.

Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva’s rejection of the draft charter yesterday did little to ease matters, and instead dealt a major blow to the junta and supporters of the People’s Democratic Reform Foundation who helped topple the elected government more than two years ago.

As drafted, the charter draft would do little to tackle conflicts and divisions, and its new mechanism of 250 appointed senators could trigger new conflicts rather than let a normal system of checks and balances work, Abhisit said.

Also, he said, the government’s pre-referendum actions will only add to the conflicts as they undermine the legitimacy of the draft charter.

Shortly after Abhisit’s announcement, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha responded yesterday by calling on the public not to let others’ opinions influence their vote. “I want people to be strong and not listen too much to others,” he said.

Asked if the Democrat’s stance would affect the referendum results, Prayut said, “You have to ask people if they [the politicians] look down upon them. I believe people know how to think.”

Meanwhile, political analyst Sirote Klampaiboon said the referendum next month was not just about the charter, but also about how the public views the junta.

“The advocates of democracy will vote one way, and coup supporters will vote another,” he said.

“However, there are the non-partisan voters, and their decision will most likely be based on their impression of the NCPO [National Council for Peace and Order],” he said. “When deciding whether to vote yes or no, they might consider the NCPO’s performance over the past two years and perhaps the personality of the leading figures.”

This possibly explains the paranoia the regime has been exhibiting by arresting and taking legal action against those allegedly breaching the referendum law, including little children, teenagers and even monkeys who have innocently vandalised lists of eligible voters’ names.

There are other signs of desperation, as people like Constitution Drafting Commission chief Meechai Ruchupan insist that the rejection of the draft would not extend the stay of this coup-installed government.

Abhisit, on the other hand, has said that rejecting the draft would allow the country to have a better constitution with better people participation.

Attasit Pankaew, a political scientist at Thammasat University, said the junta’s legitimacy would be badly affected if the draft charter failed.

“The regime still needs to stay as it has set a time frame for its so-called road map. Hence they are trying to secure their position now. Why? Because the road will be bumpy unless the charter is endorsed in the referendum,” he said.

The margin of the vote will also be significant.

“Conflicts will arise even if the charter pulls through the referendum,” Piyabutr Sangkanokkul, a law professor and leading figure of the Nitirat group said at a recent assembly of the pro-democracy group on the constitutional agenda.

“The draft charter suppresses a lot of people and a rejecting |vote is a way for those against |the coup to express themselves. Even if the junta does stay on, its legitimacy will not be intact,” he said.

Piyabutr suggested that if the charter fails in the referendum, the NCPO should step down and stop playing a part in the drafting process. He warned that history had shown that there are only two options for dictators.

“They either step down |gracefully or face public insurgence disgracefully,” the academic said.