Thailand’s ‘Teflon’ economy now outperforming Singapore

ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Thailands-Teflon-economy-now-outperforming-Singapo-30293173.html

BURNING ISSUE

Thanks to stronger growth momentum since the start of this year, Thailand is no longer an economic laggard in the 10-country Asean grouping.

The latest figures show Thai GDP grew 3.5 per cent in the second quarter, putting the economy on track for 3-3.5 per cent growth for the whole of 2016.

That’s better than Singapore, whose GDP rose a meagre 0.3 per cent in the second quarter. Due to the weak global economic outlook, the forecast for Singapore growth in 2016 has now been revised downward to 1-2 per cent for the year.

Thailand has managed to boost its momentum following multiple quarters of sluggish performance by jump-starting public sector investment in mega-infrastructure projects.

These projects range from multiple urban mass-transit lines in Bangkok and nearby provinces and double-rail projects in Central and Northeast provinces, to the Suvarnabhumi Airport expansion and three motorway schemes linking Bangkok with other parts of the country.

These ongoing and soon-to-be-launched projects will run over the next 3 to 5 years and are worth several-hundred-billion baht.

For the first time in more than a decade, the government has been able to jump-start these schemes, after delays caused by the frequent change of governments.

Kobsak Phutrakul, a vice minister at the PM’s office, told me that this government’s successful lead in driving forward the infrastructure investment projects was quite unprecedented and would convince the private sector to follow suit.

Previously, the political divide meant few major infrastructure schemes had been implemented, prompting analysts to warn the country was short of critical infrastructure investment.

Besides the government’s lead in such investment, Thailand’s economic growth momentum is being buoyed by recovering private consumption, improving farm and other commodity prices which are crucial to grass-roots purchasing power, and a relatively strong tourism sector.

Regarding the export sector, which remains the biggest engine of growth, the outlook is still uncertain but the negative fallout from China’s economic slowdown appear to have stabilised with a Chinese growth rate of around 6.6 per cent while impacts from Brexit should be further delayed due to the multiple years needed to implement the UK’s exit from European Union.

On the other hand, Singapore, a financial centre and major trading hub, is more closely linked with international trade and the global economy, so has suffered more negative impacts from external factors.

The island nation has cut its previous 2016 growth forecast of 3 per cent to only 1-2 per cent, citing Brexit and China’s economic risk from an upturn of debt defaults.

Overall, Asean economies are poised to grow 4.5 per cent this year, down 0.1 per cent from 2015. The regional grouping’s second quarter growth was projected to be around 4.5 per cent, down slightly from the first quarter’s 4.6 per cent.

Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia are leading the pack with growth rates of 7 per cent or higher for this year, with Brunei and Singapore at the other end of the growth spectrum.

Thailand is now moving towards the middle range of growth after lagging behind other Aseancountries for years.

At a growth rate of 3-3.5 per cent, Thailand will still be trailing Vietnam and Philippines, whose economies are expanding at a higher rate of over 6 per cent, while the region’s largest economy Indonesia is projected to grow at 5 per cent this year.

Nophakhun@nationgroup.com

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