Thai politics, too, is currently in a frozen state. The question now is whether the junta’s road map to democracy will be impacted and whether the election will go ahead as promised.
Up until last Thursday, the clock was ticking and the country was entering the final phase of the road map. Before we heard the news that everyone was dreading, it seemed certain that a general election would take place no later than the first quarter of 2018.
The process for the return to civilian rule was enshrined in the interim constitution of 2007. Then came a draft charter written by the Constitution Drafting Commission and endorsed by a popular vote in the referendum before being revised in accordance with the Constitutional Court’s advice. One of the final steps left is for the prime minister to seek Royal endorsement for the supreme law, which had been due to happen within the next three weeks.
It had been speculated that the constitution would receive Royal endorsement and then be promulgated next month. But after the terrible rupture suffered by the nation seven days’ ago, nobody can be sure what the future holds for the country’s 20th constitution.
Everyone shares an understanding
that politics should be on hold as a mark
of respect during this early period of
national mourning.
No one is pressuring the authorities to push through the new charter’s adoption.
But at the same time, the public expects this vital step towards a return to normal governance to be taken soon. Without it, the path towards fresh elections is darkened. Failure to promulgate the new charter would also be unconstitutional.
Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam is adamant, however, that the government will submit the supreme law for Royal endorsement by November 9, in accordance with guidelines in the interim Constitution.
The problem lies in the next step.
The interim charter stipulates that if the King does not approve it, or if he does not act within 90 days, the charter should be nullified.
But with the entire nation in deep grief, the way forward here is not clear.
If no Royal endorsement is granted within the constitutional timeframe, the constitution draft would be rendered null. The question is, will the Prayut Chan-o-cha administration allow such a fate to befall a charter that took months to write and has been given the people’s approval in a national vote. The junta cannot afford to sit back and let all that effort come to nothing.
So what should the next step be? Many observers believe Article 44 could be used to extend the timeframe and thus resolve the problem at hand. But others caution that using the special provision for absolute power to change the essence of the interim charter would set a dangerous precedent.
Another option would be to amend the interim constitution. This is viable for the government and is probably the best option now.
However, the possibility of allowing this constitution to slip away and then beginning work on a new draft can’t be ruled out, though it would be the least favoured option for the current regime.
Of course, these are merely possible ways forward in case there is difficulty in promulgating the new constitution. They would be rendered unnecessary if the new constitution receives Royal endorsement. Prime Minister Prayut has announced that the new King will endorse the charter within the deadline set by the interim charter.
But the country nevertheless remains at a crossroads. Only time will tell what the future holds for this constitution, and whether it finally becomes the supreme law or remains merely a draft document.