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With what is going on in Ukraine today, no one would be more relieved right now than the Myanmar junta’s military generals in Naypyidaw.

JAKARTA – With the war in Ukraine, a once-in-a-century military conflict that many said could lead to World War III, the eyes of the world will certainly be directed away from the atrocities within Myanmar itself.

And for obvious reasons, ASEAN countries now find themselves being preoccupied with the possible spillover of the conflict to the region.

Many analysts have begun their hand-wringing about the possible effects of the conflagration within the Indo-Pacific region and the impact on the stability of the region, which could be adversely affected by the conflict in the eastern part of Europe.

Only two weeks before the invasion, the news about a Russian anti-submarine destroyer chasing off a US submarine near the Kuril islands, near Russia, certainly added to the foreboding sense of gloom in the region.

Another concern is that the invasion of Ukraine by a revanchist power like Russia could inspire China to do the same in Taiwan, something which could create a diplomatic, if not a geopolitical headache for ASEAN countries, forcing them to deal with a fresh tension in their backyard.

These are all grave concerns, but military generals in Naypyidaw are certainly happier from the fact that ASEAN countries have bungled their response towards the Ukrainian crisis and in the process, the regional group has lost some of its credibility.

And with much-diminished credibility, it will likely be very hard for ASEAN to deal with the Myanmar issue in the coming months.

With the exception of Singapore—which has slapped a number of sanctions against Russia, with the latest being an export ban on electronics, computers, and military items, no country in ASEAN has made a tough stance against Russia.

Malaysia has tried to make a point by denying the entry of Russia-flagged tanker sanctioned by the United States, but this gesture would only amount to a pinprick against Russia.

Early in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, shortly after Russia began its invasion, ASEAN did issue a statement with the group’s foreign ministers calling for an immediate ceasefire to what they called military hostilities in Ukraine.

The ASEAN ministers also said, “that they were deeply troubled by the intensifying gravity of the situation in Ukraine.”

The ASEAN ministers believed there was still room for a peaceful dialogue. Yet, there was no mention of Russia.

This stance is all the more baffling, given that ASEAN countries would only lose a little, if any, should they decide to deliver a stronger statement against the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov himself had said that the economic ties with Southeast Asian countries ran only a “skin-deep”.

So again, if ASEAN countries decide to stand against Russia, there’s not a lot to lose, given Russia’s shallow trade and investment exposure in the region.

And if the primary consideration for not condemning Russia was the prospect of not getting any access to its military equipment, that too is questionable.

Indonesia, for instance, in recent years has diversified the source of its military weapons and its purchase of a couple of dozens of Dassault-made Rafale jet fighters from France.

If anything, soon after the French and Indonesian governments announced the planned delivery of the Rafale jet fighters, the United States gave a green light for a US$13.9 billion arms sale to Indonesia, which includes up to 36 F-15 fighter jets.

Also, no one in ASEAN is seriously considering getting the shipment of COVID-19 Sputnik vaccine from Russia, as most of the vaccines used in the region come from manufacturers in Western nations or from China.

Again, there’s no other explanation for ASEAN countries’ reluctance to make a strong stance against Russia’s occupation of Ukraine, than their fear of confronting a superpower country.

With a weak statement that amounts to no less than a slap on the wrist, military generals in Myanmar can certainly be forgiven for thinking that there are two different rules governing ASEAN, one for a small nation like them and another for major powers.

Already in Indonesia, where the government issued a condemnation towards the aggression but omitted the name of the aggressor, cynics have begun to point out that the government was being tough towards a smaller nation like Myanmar, but had reservations about making any judgment when it comes to Russia.

But this should not surprise us.

Even on the issue of Myanmar, ASEAN is far from united.

The past year, ever since tanks started rolling in on the streets of Yangon and Naypyidaw, has shown us that when it comes to upholding some basic principles of democracy and human rights in the region, only a handful of countries were willing to put in the work.

Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia, ASEAN’s ‘coalition of the willing’ have been united in wanting ASEAN to have a strong position on Myanmar, while others were comfortable sitting on the fence and gave the generals a free pass.

The crisis in Ukraine again reminds us about the reality, that at the end of today very little has changed in how ASEAN member countries go about doing their business, that realpolitik, pragmatism, and short-term calculation would trump basic norms and decency.

Sadly enough for ASEAN watchers like us, only a few weeks before the Ukraine invasion we had the illusion that Jakarta, Singapore, or Kuala Lumpur were guided by high moral principles when they went after the junta government in Myanmar.

The illusion is now gone and the generals in Naypyidaw are certainly paying attention.

From now on, statements coming from ASEAN leaders calling for accountability in Myanmar would ring hollow. These generals have noticed that in the Ukrainian crisis we certainly did not practice what we preach.

It is also easy to see that Western powers like the United States and European Union, which were put off by ASEAN’s timidity in the Ukraine crisis, would recalibrate their position on some regional issues, including on the issue of Myanmar.

It’s a lose-lose position for ASEAN.

M. Taufiqurrahman

Editor-in-chief

The Jakarta Post, Indonesia

Published : March 19, 2022