Address ageing issues now, World Bank urges

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ECONOMIC

Ulrich Zachau, left, reckons “lost opportunity” if ageing issue is not properly addressed.--The Nation

Ulrich Zachau, left, reckons “lost opportunity” if ageing issue is not properly addressed.–The Nation

THAILAND’S economy will continue growing and the pace could pick up if the country properly addresses future challenges including its rapidly greying population, according to the World Bank.

The Bank’s 2016 economic forecast for Thailand was raised from the 2.2-per-cent growth estimated six months ago to 2.5 per cent. This is the slowest in Southeast Asia, whose gross domestic product is predicted to grow by an average of 6.3 per cent.

Thailand’s leisurely GDP expansion, below 3 per cent per year, is anticipated to run until 2018.

The Finance Ministry forecasts 3.3-per-cent growth this year, against the Bank of Thailand’s 3.1 per cent.

The future growth path looks rocky, with strong headwinds and the fact that Thailand’s working population will decline by 11 per cent from now until 2040, from 49 million to 40 million, the World Bank says.

This is the sharpest shrinkage among developing economies and compares with just 4 per cent in Vietnam.

Ulrich Zachau, the World Bank’s country director for Southeast Asia, stressed the need for three critical reforms – education for higher labour productivity, further liberalisation in the service sector to maintain economic openness, and fiscal arrangements to cope with the rising ageing-associated costs.

“Thailand has potential but it is not growing at its potential. Thailand will grow faster and Thailand can rise over time in the long run” if all these issues are addressed, he said at a press conference yesterday.

He encouraged the Kingdom first to focus on students at the primary and secondary levels, as they will enter the workforce in 10-15 years.

“It’s not a catastrophe if this doesn’t happen today. But it means a lost opportunity for Thailand. It will take Thailand more years and more waiting.”

Asean ‘champion’

More openness in the service sector is also highlighted as a way to make Thailand play the “champion role in Asean”, as this will complement its leading role in trade and investment.

Medical claims must be factored into fiscal planning, before society gets old and things get out of hand, the Bank said.

Vice Finance Minister Kiatchai Sophastienphong said the social-security system was being improved to help the very poor, while measures were being introduced to increase the number of female workers and increase productivity.

Labour policies are being geared to cope with migration to address the labour shortage in the country, he said.

Zachau said the mobility of people would only increase across the world, as people seek jobs and income opportunities elsewhere. An appropriate policy would help Thailand take advantage of this trend and concurrently address the ageing issue.

Kiatchai acknowledged the short- and long-term ramifications on the Thai economy of British voters’ decision last week to exit from the European Union.

While Zachau said the World Bank was about to release studies on the impacts of “Brexit”, Kiatchai said Thailand’s Finance Ministry and the Bank of Thailand were also completing an analysis of the repercussions.

“There are strong headwinds for Asean,” Kiatchai said. “But given Thailand’s very low debt to GDP, at 44 per cent, fiscal deficit at 3 per cent to GDP, and foreign reserves worth 10 months of imports, Thailand should be able to weather the turbulence.”

To support long-term economic prospects, he highlighted several reforms that were implemented in the past year to address short-term issues and also support long-term prospects.

They include the restructuring of personal income taxes and passage of the land and property tax, policies to boost entrepreneurship and strengthen smalle and medium-sized enterprises, innovation centres in five focus areas, mega-project investment, and improvement in the investment climate with the aim to achieve a higher rung in the World Bank’s “Doing Business Index”.

CAT, Chinese firm agree framework for inter-regional broadband link

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BOARDBAND LINK

CHINA TELECOM Global and CAT Telecom have signed an investment framework for a land- and water-borne high-speed broadband project to link China and Southeast Asia.

Both parties will now seek partners and strategic alliances for the new project, Uttama Savanayana, the Thai minister of information and communications technology, said yesterday.

CAT and China Telecom will form a joint venture very soon, which should begin with the land part of the cable this year, he said.

CAT will invest about Bt3 billion in this project. Its return will come from its share of profit based on the JV ratio.

The inter-regional Internet system will link Asean nations with mainland China by originating in Hong Kong, then passing through Thailand, Laos and the other counties in the CLMV subregion (Cambodia, Myanmar and Vietnam) before swinging upwards back to China.

Currently, more than 90 per cent of Internet streaming overseas has to go down to Singapore and Malaysia before reaching destinations even in China, but the project is expected to cut the distance, and that will reduce expenses.

The submarine cable in the |second phase of the project will facilitate maritime communication in east China and Southeast Asia, Uttama said.

Battered sterling gets a reprieve, yen’s rally pauses

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BREXIT

British Pounds in London./EPA

British Pounds in London./EPA

LONDON – Higher-yielding, riskier currencies such as the Australian dollar rose along with sterling on Tuesday on hopes of a more coordinated central bank response to stem steep losses in markets after Britain’s vote to leave the European Union.

Safe-haven currencies such as the yen and the Swiss franc, which had gained sharply since last Thursday’s vote, were weaker, although risk sentiment was fragile.

Ratings agencies Standard & Poor’s and Fitch have downgraded their sovereign credit standing, adding to the currency’s dour outlook.

The first EU summit since the vote will be held on Tuesday.

Sterling rose 0.8 percent to $1.3335, climbing from a 31-year low of $1.3122 struck on Monday, a trough not seen since 1985. The pound’s two-day slide on Friday and Monday wasthe biggest in modern history and came as British banks lost a third of their value in just two trading sessions.

“Markets may be heading towards consolidation after experiencing sharp losses within the post Brexit environment,” Morgan Stanley’s head of currency strategy, Hans Redeker, said, noting that sterling had fallen to technically significant levels against many other currencies.

“However, with the downgrade (by S&P) the short-term negative news flow may have reached its peak.”

The euro edged up to $1.1060, recovering from Friday’s three-month low of $1.0912. The single currency is under pressure as Brexit clouds the future of the whole bloc.

With European stock markets starting on a firmer footing on Tuesday, the Australian dollar, seen by many as a proxy for risk sentiment, rose 1 percent to $0.7407.

The dollar rose against the yen, trading at 102.17 yen. On Friday, it had fallen to 99 yen, its lowest since late2013, when it became clear that Britain’s have opted “Leave”.

“The market is experiencing a lull in absence of fresh factors and dollar/yen appears to be holding out well,” Societe Generale director of forex, Kyosuke Suzuki, said.

Central bank policy makers have an opportunity to soothe markets at a European Central Bank Forum in Portugal. Although ECB President Mario Draghi has cut short his appearance there to head to the EU Summit, he is due to speak on “The future of the international monetary and financial architecture”.

– Reuters

Exports face Brexit squeeze

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AFTERMATH

A monitor displays news at the Euronext Stock Exchange in Amsterdam, on June 24, 2016 after the result of Britain's in-out referendum on EU membership, as Britain voted to leave the European Union. Disbelief and shock hit financial trading rooms on June

A monitor displays news at the Euronext Stock Exchange in Amsterdam, on June 24, 2016 after the result of Britain’s in-out referendum on EU membership, as Britain voted to leave the European Union. Disbelief and shock hit financial trading rooms on June

British vote creates ‘huge impact’ on global economy that will see a 2%decline in Thai sales.

THAI EXPORTERS and capital markets will likely face a prolonged negative impact from Britain’s vote last week to quit the European Union, local analysts have said.

The Brexit vote saw the pound lose another 3 per cent in value against the dollar yesterday.

Although Thai shipments to the UK are relatively small – worth around 1 per cent of Thai gross domestic product (GDP), Nopporn Thepsithar, chairman of the Thai National Shippers Council, said Brexit had created a huge impact and the global economy could slow down over the second half of this year.

As a result, overall Thai exports could continue to contract in the third and fourth quarters, and cause a drop of more than 2 per cent in exports for the whole year.

“The immediate impacts are on exchange rates, but the global economy likely faces stagnation. Thai exports would also be hit by the global economy and weakening pound sterling and Euro currency,” he said.

So, Nopporn said the Thai government needed to review its international trade policy and take lessons learned for regional groups such as Asean

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, meanwhile, admitted that Brexit would hurt the export sector, which accounts for 70 per cent of Thailand’s GDP.

Commerce Minister Apiradi Tantraporn said the ministry will need to adjust some export promotion plans, while closely monitoring the Brexit process over the next two years.

Surapong Paisitpatanapong, chair of the Federation of Thai Industry’s Automotive Industry Club, said vehicles, especially eco-car exports to the EU, were likely to decrease by about 10 percent this year due to the Brexit. But the longer term effects would depend on the UK’s new trade policy.

Duenden Nikomborilak, research director to the Thailand Development Research Institute, said Brexit could lead to a collapse of the EU, as other member states could follow the UK’s move and conduct a referendum on whether they also want to leave.

The Thai stock market gained 11 points to close at 1,424 yesterday and the outlook that it will move “sideways up”. But Brexit will likely stop the SET index from topping the 1,500 level towards the end of this year, according to Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn, president of the Investment Analysts Association (IAA).

Jitiphol Preuksamethanun of Thai Military Bank (TMB) said the baht was likely to weaken against the dollar to trade around 35.20-35.65 while there were capital outflows of Bt784 million and Bt1.66 billion on sales of Thai equities and bonds, respectively, following Brexit.

Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank (HSBC), meanwhile, said Thailand may join other Asian economies in easing monetary policy to cushion the impacts from Brexit, but the move might not be immediate. At present, the Thai policy interest rate is set at 1.5 per cent. According to HSBC, weakened economic growth in Asia will prompt policymakers across the region to do more to steady the outlook.

“Still, not everyone has the same room for manoeuvre. Economies where the bias for further easing may have increased include Australia, New Zealand, Korea, Japan, China and Thailand. A little more constrained on the monetary front are India, Indonesia and Malaysia, with currency weakness either risking to stoke price pressures or tighten financial conditions (or both). Fiscally, the latter three, as well as Thailand and Taiwan, are also more constrained than others,” the HSBC note said.

Huawei plans R&D centre in Bangkok focusing on SMEs

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HUAWEI Technologies Co is |setting up a Bt350-million regional research and development centre in Bangkok to serve small and medium-sized companies as well as start-ups in Thailand.

Huawei has signed a three-year framework with the Science and Technology Ministry to develop the “digital economy” and smart cities nationwide, beginning with Bangkok.

Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak, who is visiting China this week, said yesterday that the agreement would also aim to help develop Thai agriculture and tourism.

The project will enjoy a corporate-income-tax deduction of up to triple the expenses.

The centre is expected to be established this year and with the hopes of opening up about 80 local jobs.

Besides Huawei, Somkid also met with executives from Baidu to discuss their expansion plans in Thailand.

Baidu recently launched a Chinese-language virtual map and travel-information application in Thailand to serve nearly 8 million Chinese travelling to Thailand each year.

Industrial corridor

Zhao Hongjin, president of overseas business at China Fortune Land Development Co, a developer of industrial parks and other real estate, said the company was interested in investing in a smart city in an industrial corridor in Thailand as well as in the CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam) region.

The Board of Investment of Thailand will later host an investment forum for Chinese investors.

Li Zhigang, senior vice president of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, expressed interest in Thailand.

The bank will encourage its 5 million investors to expand in Thailand.

During his visit to Beijing, Somkid presided over the inking of an agreement for a submarine cable and terrestrial network by CAT Telecom and China Telecom Global.

The two parties will work on the submarine-cable project that the Thai Cabinet has already approved.

China Telecom Global will help CAT develop a high-speed Internet network for all countries in the region.

The Cabinet has approved |a budget of nearly Bt20 billion for broadband Internet development.

RELATED STORY 4B

Auction of 1.11 tonnes of rice expected to yield a good price

ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

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THE Rice Policy Management Committee yesterday agreed to sell 1.11 tonnes of rice to 29 traders, which should earn the country Bt11.54 billion.

Duangporn Rodphaya, director-general of the Foreign Trade Department, said that with demand for rice rising in the market, the government could gain a good price from the latest auction.

The traders were among the 64 that joined the year’s fourth round of bidding for 2.23 million tonnes of rice.

The government has managed to dispose of 6.59 million tonnes of its rice worth Bt69 billion via tender in the past two years, leaving 9.5 million tonnes in its inventory. It will try to unload as much of this rice as possible this year. The government will continue to release rice via many methods including open general auctions to serve both domestic and overseas consumption during the drought.

“The drought has caused lower rice supplies. The government will try to manage rice stocks efficiently and be aware of the impact on the rice price in the market,” Duangporn said.

Commerce Minister Apiradi Tantraporn said the government planned to continue selling rice under government-to-government contracts with many countries.

Recently, the Philippines and Indonesia showed strong interest in placing a big order for rice from Thailand – for more than a million tonnes combined.

The ministry will send a mission to promote rice sales to many markets with potential, including Singapore, South Africa, Mozambique and Oman, which is seen as the gateway to East African countries.

Thailand woos Chinese start-ups to invest in high-end industries

ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

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THAILAND is beckoning Chinese start-up companies to invest in the Kingdom in such high-tech industries as information and communications technology, automobiles, aviation and electronics.

“To strengthen the economy for the long term, Thailand needs more high-end industries such as research and development, and Chinese companies can provide these,” Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak said yesterday. On Sunday, he took representatives of the private sector to China to seek more investment. The delegation will be there until Thursday, visiting Beijing and Shanghai.

He will talk with eight to 10 start-ups about setting up in Thailand as part of their overseas expansion. The Board of Investment of Thailand will offer them incentives.

Somkid is scheduled to meet with more than 300 Chinese investors tomorrow at a conference on “Thailand: Moving Forward |to Sustainable Growth”. The event aims to pinpoint investment opportunities especially in the |ICT, auto, electronics, parts, tourism, telecommunications-equipment and machinery industries.

Southeast Asia, including Thailand, is now well positioned for more investment from China because of the current uncertainty in Europe, the government believes.

While the political tension in the Kingdom may not bother investors in the short term, it will be good in the long term if the country returns to full democracy, Somkid said.

From 2010-14, 172 investment projects worth Bt85.3 billion from China were approved. The top destinations were the machinery, automotive and solar-cell industries.

Last year, the government approved 81 projects worth Bt28 billion, up from 40 projects in 2014.

From January to April this year, 27 projects valued at Bt5.9 billion received approval.

This year, Thailand is targeting more investment in high-end endeavours such as natural rubber, machinery and parts, automotive, rail, aviation maintenance, biotechnology, tourism, software parks, data centres and cloud service.

The Commerce Ministry reported that investment from Thailand in China in 2013 consisted of 37 projects, down 32 per cent from 2012, but up by more than 500 per cent in value.

In 2014, investment value from Thailand declined by 87 per cent. From January to October last year, Thailand invested about Bt1 billion in China, mostly in retail, banking and finance, and aviation.

Somkid in China to woo investments from start-ups

ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

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Thailand is encouraging China’s start-up companies to invest in Thailand.

Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak will be talking to the private sector in Beijing and Shanghai on a five-day trip that began yesterday to seek more investment.

Somkid will be talking to 8-10 start-up companies to invest in Thailand as part of their overseas expansion. The Office of the Board of Investment will be following up on the investments, offering special incentives and privileges.

Somkid is also scheduled to meet more than 300 Chinese investors on Wednesday at an investment conference entitled “Thailand: Moving Forward to Sustainable Growth”.

The event is set to pinpoint investment opportunities, especially in information and communications technology, automobiles, electronics parts, tourism sector, telecommunications equipment, and machinery sectors.

According to official statistics, from 2010-14, 172 investment projects worth Bt85.3 billion from China had been approved. Top areas of investment were machinery, automobiles, solar cells, and car assembly. Last year, the government approved 81 projects worth Bt28 billion, up from 40 projects in 2014.

From January to April this year, 27 projects had already received approval, valued at Bt5.9 billion.

This year, Thailand is targeting more investment from high-end products of natural rubber, machinery and parts, automobiles, train and tram, aviation maintenance, biotechnology, tourism activity and software park data centre.

The Thai Ministry of Commerce said Thai investments in 2013 covered 37 projects, down 32 per cent from the earlier year, but the value jumped more than 500 per cent. In 2014, total investment value from Thailand declined by 87 per cent. From January to October last year, Thai investment in China was valued at about Bt1 billion mostly in retail, banking and finance, and aviation.

Thai investors told to explore Yunnan

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AGRICULTURE food processing, services, tourism and logistics are potential business opportunities for Thai investors looking to plant a flag in Yunnan province, China.

That is the opinion of Natchathorn Manopanjasiri, Thailand’s consul of the Commercial Affairs Office at the Royal Thai Consulate-General in the province’s capital, Kunming.

“Chinese people in Yunnan province have an interest in buying Thai products,” she said. “Many of them have expanded their investments into logistic businesses in Northern Thailand to import Thai products, especially agriculture food products. There is potential in the province for Thai investors to expand their investments here.”

Natchathorn said the investment potential for Thai companies in Yunnan stemmed from the province’s higher consumer purchasing power when compared to many other Chinese provinces.

In 2015, the trade value between Thailand and Yunnan was US$975 million (Bt34.4 billion) and Thailand’s trade deficit with the province was $500 million. In the first five months of this year the trade value between the two was $150 million.

“Thailand’s trade deficit was because we imported fresh fruit, flowers, and agricultural products from Yunnan,” she said.

Natchathorn said Thai investors eyeing China needed to find local partners and do their homework before investing.

Pinnat Charoenphol, director and chief representative of the Tourism Authority of Thailand’s Kunming office, which also covers Guizhou and Guangxi, said Thailand also benefited greatly from tourists coming to the country from Yunnan, with 12 per cent of the total 7.8 million Chinese tourists who visited Thailand in 2015 coming from Yunnan and Guizhou, and Guangxi provinces.

“Kunming city has several direct flights to Thailand, especially to tourist destinations such as Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Koh Samui, Krabi, Phuket. The number of tourists from Yunnan to Thailand is rising,” Pinnat said.

The challenge for Thai investors is to establish a foothold in the tourism industry in Kunming, Pinnat added. The TAT aims to boost Chinese tourism arrivals in the Kingdom to 10 million this year, with 14 per cent coming from Yunnan, Guizhou, and Guangxi.

Chinese tourists’ purchasing power in Thailand has increased from Bt30,000 per trip in the previous two years to an average of Bt45,000 this year. She said most Chinese tourists who visited Thailand were quality tourists who bought branded products.

World trading system facing winds of change, warns Supachai

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Supachai Panitchpakdi

Supachai Panitchpakdi

BREXIT, the Arab Springs, the Orlando shooting and the migration crisis may seem disconnected but in Supachai Panitchpakdi’s grim interpretation they mark the end of the long-existing global economic landscape and the birth of a new, closed trade regime.

In a speech to the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce’s executive programme, Supachai foresaw more crises stemming from shale gas explorers’ debt in light of persistently low oil prices, financial hardships of oil companies in Russia, geopolitical conflicts in Europe, and conflicts in the South China Sea.

Trade would become the mechanism for countries involved to vent their spleen at each other. A myriad of non-tariff barriers would be invented.

He saw the Trans-Pacific Partnership as a good example as “there is no real free trade deal in this world”.

Even in the Asean Economic Community barriers exist to block the true movement of labour. Under the scheme allowing free movement in eight professions, no single Asean citizen has reaped benefits from it, he said.

“Global trade would no longer be influenced by economic policies but political policies, and the benefits will depend on whose side you are on,” said Supachai, who was former director-general of the World Trade Organisation and former Unctad secretary-general.

A scenario was imminent where no particular country would have absolute control over the global economy. It all started with the “financialisation”, which boosted the financial sector to the disadvantage of the real sector and led to the 2008 financial crisis.

“The world lacks an economic steering. We can’t rely on the conventional, useless leaders. What the world needs is common governance to address structural problems [that underline global conflicts]. These could be tackled by freer trade and equality,” he said.

Supachai said global problems are born mainly from ethnic conflicts, economic volatility and inequality. While ethnic conflicts heighten, major economies still maintain relaxed monetary policies and try to defend their economic powers. Inequality – whether within a country or among countries – will widen.

The West itself is faltering, growing their economies mainly through the services sector while maintaining huge subsidies on agricultural products and tax incentives for the manufacturing sector. Without the subsidies, the agricultural sector would flop. Without the tax incentives, manufacturers would have left for Asia, he said.

He said the 2008 financial crisis, Brexit, the Orlando shooting and migrant crisis all stemmed from inequality.

He noted that these structural problems need to be addressed or it would spur more imbalances in the world – including a stronger sense of protectionism in some countries and more migration of people to more promising countries; and economic nationalism – the opposite of liberalisation. And these were not a good answer.

Supachai said countries in the West still denied this fact, and were trying to block migration.

“Japan suffered from two lost decades. The EU is facing a lost decade and this will drag on. Migration will remain a global crisis. If we can’t fix inequality, we can’t fix the global economic woes,” he noted.

All chaos was interconnected and Asia, including Thailand, could not be spared, he warned.

In his comment after Britain voted to leave the European Union, Frederic Neumann, co-head of HSBC’s Asian Economic Research, said: “The fragility of the West, economically as well as politically, is a reminder that Asia can’t count on an export rebound any time soon to lift ailing growth. Reforms are urgently needed to put local demand growth on a more sustainable path.”