Covering 38 destinations, these annual Pata forecasts are well regarded for their overall accuracy and reliability in terms of highlighting shifts and trends in international visitor demand for travel in and across the region.

“This last series of predictions again highlights the rapidly approaching need for aggressive and appropriate visitor-management processes to be installed and operational before we literally destroy our destinations with our love and desire to interact with them,” he said.

In the 2015-20 period, Asia will continue to increase its dominance of foreign arrivals from 72 per cent to 73 per cent, while the absolute volume of arrivals into Asia-Pacific generally is predicted to rise from 528 million to 647 million.

In the period, Southeast Asia will continue with its dramatic rise in foreign arrivals, improving its share from 20 per cent to 22.5 per cent, when it will rival the Americas’ share of 22.6 per cent.

In the period, Asia will also continue to generate more international arrivals into the Asia-Pacific region, increasing its count from 355 million visitors to 448 million. That will see the Asian component of arrivals into the region – as defined in the summary report – increase from 66 per cent to 68 per cent in the period.

However, it is Northeast Asia that remains the workhorse for the region, generating an expected 333 million international arrivals in 2020 – more than half of the total foreign inbound volume expected in that year.

Intra-regional flows will continue to remain strong for most Asia-Pacific regions, but across the region, the influence of the Asian source market is undeniable and will only grow stronger, at least in most cases.

The Americas and Europe will continue to play important roles in Asia-Pacific travel and tourism, not just in the volume of arrivals they each generate but also in additional metrics that they bring to the industry – more for some destinations than others, but still significant none the less.

The Americas are expected to generate 113 million arrivals into the Asia-Pacific region in 2020, driven largely by North America, which will contribute close to two-thirds of that volume.

The 47 million arrivals from Europe expected in 2020 will come from Western Europe (19.5 million) but also Northern Europe (14.7 million). These two origin subregions will generate close to two-thirds of total arrivals from Europe by 2020.

“The predictions are positive but there will be some substantive changes in origin-market structure into a number of destinations. Forewarned is forearmed,” Hardy said.

“The NBTC needs to hurry to consider putting the 2600 megahertz and 700MHz frequencies up for auction in the near future, as they are valuable bands for telecom services,” he said.

The NBTC failed to review all telecom packages from existing operators and force them to offer lower prices, as required by the auction’s rules. Some packages are offering higher tariffs, he said

The Superboard also found fault with the NBTC for failing to resolve and clear all consumer complaints within 30 days as required by law.

Some cases took more than one year to end. That made consumers more dissatisfied with the NBTC’s response.

The NBTC was also found to have failed in fostering more competition by promoting newcomers to the mobile industry.

Three players

There are still only three incumbent operators – Advanced Info Service, Total Access Communication and True Corp.

The NBTC should issue regulations for mobile virtual network operators to support more of them in the industry, which would benefit consumers.

During the three-year term of the Superboard, it also found that the NBTC failed to outline a long-term roadmap for the telecom industry, especially for a spectrum plan.

That made it difficult for both incumbent and new operators to put together the right strategy and investment plan, he added.

The Superboard’s term comes to an end today.

Colquhoun, the head of Asia Pacific sovereigns at Fitch Ratings, sees the growth spurt, fuelled by a resurgence in borrowing, threatening to wreak havoc on the financial system.

“Whether we call it stabilisation or not, I am not sure,” he said in an interview in New York. “From a credit perspective, we’d be more comfortable with China slowing more than it is. We are getting less confident in the government’s commitment to structural reforms.”

While global equity and commodity markets have rallied on signs that a surge in lending is helping stabilise the economy, the borrowing binge is adding to an already unsustainable debt level, according to Colquhoun. Eventually, the very thing that has been driving the recovery could end up derailing it, he said.

Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service cut China’s long-term credit rating outlook to negative last month, citing the country’s surging debt burden and concern that the government won’t be able to implement reforms. Fitch affirmed China’s credit rating at A+, the fifth highest rating, in November, with a stable outlook. That is one grade lower than Moody’s and S&P.

China’s new credit increased a record 4.6 trillion yuan (US$710 billion) in the first quarter, surpassing the level of 2009 during the depths of the global financial crisis. Total debt from companies, governments and households was 247 per cent of gross domestic product last year, up from 164 per cent in 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Instead of focusing on reducing debt levels, Chinese policy makers choose to open up the lending tap whenever the economy slows, Colquhoun said. Such a stop-and-go policy weakens the credibility of President Xi Jinping’s administration as a reformer, he said. Gross domestic product rose 6.7 per cent in the first quarter from a year earlier, in line with the government’s growth target of 6.5 per cent to 7 per cent for the full year.

“It’s difficult to achieve both objectives” of reaching a 6.5 per cent growth target and carrying out reforms, including slashing debt and reducing excessive production capacity, said Colquhoun. “Given the twists and turns in the management of the policy over the last year, I am no longer sure which objective has higher weight.”

“Thai rice can be developed as a value-added ‘super food’ in the form of various products. The commercial rice institute would contribute to adding value to Thai rice so that farmers would receive more income,” she said.

If approved, it will take about five to six months to establish the institute.

Chutima said the institute could contribute to a doubling of income from rice products. This would result in extra government revenue from rice-product duties of about Bt700 million each year.

Normally, the government cannot collect value-added tax from rice trading, but if it has been processed, VAT can be added.

The ministry will discuss with the Office of the Public Sector Development Commis-sion the formation of the institute, as it will not be managed by the government but should be a non-government organisation so it will be more efficient and flexible.

Chutima said the institute would also employ highly qualified people for administration of research and development.

She added that if this institute could be set up, more than 60 per cent of Thais involved in rice farming should have more income and better living conditions, since the rice price would be increased.

High-nutrition food

According to the Commerce Ministry, rice is a high-nutrition food and has low sugar. It could serve health-conscious people and be developed into various kinds of food for babies, children, senior persons, and those watching their weight.

Rice could also be produced as cosmetics and other products.

Meanwhile, the ministry is considering a plan to continue releasing the remaining 11.6 million tonnes of rice in the government stockpiles. Chutima said the ministry would consider releasing rice every month through various channels such as open bidding and government-to-government contracts.