The study will be completed by the end of this year.

Winichai Chaemchaeng, vice commerce minister, said yesterday after visiting Eria’s office in Jakarta that the focus of the study would will be on three main issues of concern to Asean countries – investment, state-owned enterprises, and intellectual-property rights.

Eria has been working on the TPP impacts under the topic “21st Century Regionalism, Mega FTAs and Asean Regional Integration”. Once the study has been completed, it should help Thailand decide whether to join the TPP in the future.

Eria is an international organisation established in Jakarta in 2008 by a formal agreement among the leaders of 16 East Asian countries to conduct research activities and make policy recommendations for further economic integration in the region.

Eria works closely with the Asean Secretariat.

A separate study by Eria found that Thailand had imposed the highest non-tariff measures (NTMs) among Asean countries, since it has focused on protecting consumers and manufacturers.

According to that study, among the 5,975 NTMs found in Asean, 1,630 were implemented by Thailand. They are concerned largely with sanitary and phytosanitary standards and technical barriers on trade. The Thai agencies imposing the highest NTMs are the Public Health Ministry via the Food and Drug Administration, the Agriculture Ministry through the Agriculture Department, the Industry Ministry by the Thai Industrial Standards Institute and the Commerce Ministry via the Foreign Trade Department.

The NTMs that Thailand has imposed are not mainly related to commercial concerns but to consumer health protection. The government has imposed those measures out of high concern for consumers and not to obstruct trade, Winichai said.

Eria will organise workshops for Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam and Thailand on the “Potential of Fresh Tropical Fruits Value Chain in the Mekong Region”.

In a special address to the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce’s executive programme yesterday, Supachai likened the TPP to a political tool of the United States to maintain its power in Asia in light of the increasing influence of China. Meanwhile RCEP, which has Asean as the centre in collaboration with six other nations, is a positive mechanism in dealing with geographic issues involving Asian countries.

“With RCEP, there is no need for these countries to go to war. Don’t forget that Asia is a big spender on defence. However, RCEP will not go anywhere if some of our friends take the second row at the negotiation table,” he said, referring to Brunei, Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam – the four Asean members that have agreed to join the TPP.

He acknowledged that if all Asean nations joined the TPP, it would be a boon for the region. However, from his estimate, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar will never be qualified to join the pact, which demands, among other things, liberalisation in the service industries.

He also attacked the US for upgrading Malaysia’s ranking in the “Trafficking in Persons” report to Tier 2 and leaving Thailand at Tier 3 even though in the past year Thailand has made immense progress in tackling human trafficking. He claimed the US did so to make Malaysia qualified for TPP negotiation, which bars countries in Tier 3 from the table.

He expressed surprise that the four countries had agreed to join TPP even though the requirements were sky-high, a lot more demanding than RCEP, which is in turn slightly more stringent thanAsean agreements.

By initiating the TPP, the US wanted to prevent the transition of power from the Western to the Eastern Hemisphere, which will be led by China, Supachai said. Washington also went further by initiating another pact with Europe, called the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).

“Members of the two pacts will control about 60-70 per cent of global trade. If these two pacts are enforced, there will be no need for the WTO. That will pose risks to global trade, as giant and small countries are put in the same group,” he said, adding that in the end small countries would be left out.

He said Asean as a whole had immense potential to be part of the global value chain. Deeper integration means these nations could benefit from others’ human and non-human resources. However, at this stage, only Singapore is ready to exploit fully the possible benefits of the integration.

On the issue of firming relations with Beijing, he acknowledged that China has had thorny relationships with its Asian counterparts, chiefly the disputes over the South China Sea.

China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative and its projects along the Mekong River are all for their own interests, he said. However, Beijing provides room for negotiation, as seen through what Thailand and China are doing regarding the Sino-Thai high-speed-rail project.

Supachai said Thailand should ensure that it thoroughly considers the pros and cons before making the next move. He acknowledged the overwhelming pressure from the private sector for the accession to the TPP, but urged the government to negotiate for the highest benefits if Thailand is really to join pact.

“If we’re desperate to join, we will end up getting nothing,” he said.

Supant Mongkolsuthree, president of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), said most JSCCIB members agreed with the TPP, considering the overall benefits to and impacts on the country and the state’s assistance to suffering private organisations.

The JSCCIB, which comprises the FTI, the Board of Trade |of Thailand and the Thai Bankers’ Association, will conduct a study |on the country’s potential as |the Asean hub for several industries.

The committee encourages the private sector to join trips that will be organised by the public sector to promote economic and trade relations with other countries.

Thai exports this year could face pressure from risks to the global economy, particularly China’s economic slowdown, while the low prices of agricultural products and the drought could delay a recovery in consumption.

Outbound shipments sank 8.7 per cent in December and 5.8 per cent for all of last year. That was the third year in a row for contraction.

Sales slipped to most major export destinations, particularly China and Japan, but were robust to the CLMV countries of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam.

December’s private consumption continued to see improvement in spending for non-durables and durables, as car purchases ramped up before increases in excise taxes for some models.

In the month, the country’s economic activities warmed up from the government’s stimulus late last year with a consistent gain in confidence.

A highlight was the 21-per-cent jump in foreign tourists last year.

Thailand’s Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking and the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (JCCI) yesterday held a Thailand-Japan Economic Forum. The JSCCIB invited a group of 60 Japanese investors to join the event.

Akio Mimura, chairman of the JCCI, said the TPP would open up opportunities for Japanese investors, and Thailand was regarded as a destination for Japanese investment, but this country has not joined the TPP yet.

The JCCI says it will help Thailand deal with some of the barriers it faces in joining the US-led trade pact.

The Japanese chamber believes Thailand will become a member of the TPP soon and this will lure Japanese investors. The JCCI will encourage Japanese companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises to invest in Thailand.

Boontuck Wungcharorn, chairman of the Thai Bankers’ Association, said the JSCCIB would discuss the TPP at a meeting next week before submitting its conclusions to the government for consideration.

Mimura said half of new investment by Japanese companies in Thailand was by SMEs, but the high cost of labour here was causing them to worry. Possible solutions included increasing productivity and the migration of agricultural labour to the industrial sector.

Piti Tantakasem, chief wholesale banking officer at TMB Bank, told the forum that the government’s investments were a key economic driver and there was sufficient money to do this because the ratio of public debt to gross domestic product is only 40 per cent. A manageable proportion is 60 per cent of GDP.

Infrastructure projects in three main areas are mostly responsible for this economic stimulus: railways, energy and telecommunications. Japanese investors are able to join in these projects because they have the necessary expertise, Piti said. Teruo Asada, chairman of the board of Marubeni Corporation, said his company was interested in investing in Thailand’s infrastructure, as in the past it had been involved in many projects here, especially power plants and deep-water ports.

However, the study also found there would be challenges to confront by joining TPP including tougher competition and stringent protection of intellectual property rights.

The study is the result of the ministry hiring the Panyapiwat Institute and the International Institute for Trade and Development to probe the benefits and negatives of Thailand joining the TPP.

Sirinart Jaimun, director-general to the Trade Negotiations Department, said Thailand would get large benefits from the TPP.

Sirinart said the department would forward the results of the study and a public forum on the matter to the government to make the decision on whether Thailand would join the pact. The announcement of the decision is expected late next month.

According to the study, the country’s gross domestic product could grow 0.77 percentage points a year by signing onto the TPP.

But GDP could grow 1.06 percentage points if other Asean countries, including Indonesia and the Philippines, join it, the study found.

It also found the TPP would help promote growth in the automobile, electronic, computer, garment and textile sectors.

The pact would increase the development of the trade and service sectors as well as environmental protection and labour standards since member states would be encouraged to develop each sector to meet higher standards for sustainable growth.

The study found the TPP would increase opportunities for Thai enterprises to invest overseas, and source raw materials from other countries.

It would also promote better awareness of intellectual property rights, leading to stringent protection, as well as support new innovations and research and the development of high technology.

The tougher competition would be in the trade and service sectors, while the stringent protection of intellectual property rights could make it difficult for people to access public health services, and result in higher costs for pharmaceutical and medical products.

Thus, Thailand would need to adjust its rules and regulations in accordance with the TPP and prepare for the stringent protection of patents.

Before proposing the study results to policy makers, the department will organise the public hearing to hear any concerns about the pact from all involved sectors. The information will be gathered and evaluated.

Sirinart said the department would find out how Japan created understanding among its public after joining the TPP. It will do that by speaking to representatives from the Japan External Trade Organisation (Jetro) and the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) of Japan.

Meanwhile, Thailand plans to cooperate with Jetro Bangkok to support Asean countries in creating Asean-branded products that meet international standards.

Commerce Minister Apiradi Tantraporn said there were many products that had a good opportunity to be developed further under the scheme such as electronic appliances, auto parts, garments, and cosmetics.

Under the cooperation, Thailand will be a training centre for Asean industries, while Jetro will help promote improving the standards of products along industrial lines.

Apiradi said goods would be labelled “Made in Asean” so the world market would know all Aseangoods had the same good standard of production.

To promote closer cooperation in Asean, Thailand will host a forum in the first quarter where representatives from Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam will discuss cooperating in tourism, culture, and trade and industry.