The new United States President Donald Trump must be “fantastically” happy with a “wonderful” Asean because it is the only “great” regional organisation that has no military might and has not been at war. The problem is, he might not know about the grouping at all.

Here is a six-point dossier on the 50-year-old Asean and its top secrets.

First, Asean is not too weak and is not too strong as a regional organisation. It was established in 1967 out of a desire to prevent conflicts and wars and to promote peace and stability.

After three days of “sport-shirt” diplomacy in Bang Saen in August five decades ago – as former Philippine President Fidel Ramos described it – the foreign ministers from the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore signed the Bangkok Declaration.

This 752-word document, excluding their long names, has saved the region from the scourges of many potential wars.

Like the European Union, Asean should be a candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize in the coming decade, given its long and impressive stretch of peace and stability.

Well, the US has one less region to worry about.

Second, Asean members talk a lot among themselves. Outsiders often describe the regional grouping as a talk shop.

Indeed, it is. But that is nothing to be ashamed of. Those talks have not been in vain as they have effectively prevented wars and promoted cooperation.

There would be less talk in the future, meaning fewer meetings, if the current Asean chairmanship, the Philippines, has its way.

Manila wants to streamline Asean meetings.

On an average day, at least two or three meetings are being held. That makes it approximately 1,200 annually.

Last year, Laos cut it down to less than 1,000 meetings.

The Asean members discuss and consult a lot until they reach a consensus — very few organisations have that kind of perseverance.

It is an open secret that sometimes when Asean members agree, they do so not because they thought it was the best solution but rather it was the lowest denominator that all members would accept.

In Indonesia, it is called “mushiwara” or the art of bringing everybody together to make decisions by consensus rather than choosing winners and losers, which has helped Asean to survive without any “exit” from the 10-member grouping.

Asean seldom says “you are fired” because it prefers to say “you are hired” — to be inclusive and people-centred.

Third, Asean has a longstanding tradition – it does not promise what it cannot deliver.

It is a bit different from Trump’s style of leadership. Say it out loud first and then follow-up on those promises.

In Asean, action speaks louder than words — that is the reason the regional grouping has so many action plans. For the Asean Vision 2025, a total of 571 action plans have been identified for the next 10 years.

That explains why Asean goes slow before any decision is reached.

They have to be sure all promises could be delivered. Failure is not an option.

Quite often, outsiders do not understand the Asean way of handling challenges, whether they are disruptive or longstanding issues. In short, slow but sure is a preferred approach.

Fourth, Asean is not a military alliance akin to the Northern Atlantic Treaty Organisation.

So, Asean is not taking any advantage of the US and it is an important US strategic partnership – a pillar of the US rebalancing policy.

It is neither a military burden for the advance of American greatness nor does it pose any threat to the US.

Asean uses non-violent means to resolve conflicts as well as its goodwill to connect major powers.

Asean’s former secretary-general, Dr Surin Pitsuwan, often described the grouping as a fulcrum for all major powers to meet and get engaged.

Asean prefers security cooperation rather than forming military alliances.

Many Asean-led security dialogue platforms are designed to increase mutual confidence and promote preventive measures.

Now both foreign and defence ministers have their own ministerial level forums—the Asean Regional Forum and Asean Defence Ministerial Meeting Plus – to meet annually with their dialogue partners.

Fifth, Asean is good for Trump’s America, as it has created jobs both in blue and red states.

US trade with Asean has already created 500,000 jobs for American people.

Asean is the fourth-largest trade partner of the US, with deals worth about US$226 billion in 2015. And the US companies are the biggest beneficiaries of the grouping’s prosperity and modern lifestyle.

More and more US companies want to invest in Asean, not stay away.

In 2014, they pumped in nearly $25 billion.

With economies of new Asean members such as Vietnam and Myanmar growing, investment opportunities will be even more.

As a group, Asean is Asia’s third-largest economy after China and Japan and the seventh-largest in the world with a combined gross domestic product of $2.4 trillion.

By 2030, it could be the fourth largest in the world.

Today, Asean has a total population of 646 million and more than 65 per cent are under 35 years old.

Under the Obama administration, the US has been cleverly engaged in winning the hearts and minds of the Asean youngsters.

The Young Southeast Asian Leaders Initiative is an inexpensive programme to promote the networking of people-to-people ties that will keep Asean-US ties in the hands of future generation.

Sixth, each year Asean hosts one of the world’s most important leaders-only security forum, known as the East Asia Summit (EAS).

Leaders from Asean and dialogue partners, including the US, China, Russia, Japan and India will to the capital of the Asean chair to forge common positions on critical global issues such as epidemics, terrorism and climate change.

This forum is gradually becoming more dynamic and interactive, which could in the future transform into a new regional architecture.

If Trump decides not to attend the EAS at the Clark Airbase (he can easily find an excuse given his calibre) during his first year of presidency, it would be a big loss to US security interests.

Other participants are eager as always to inject their ideas and energy into the emerging security framework.

The writer is a former assistant group editor of Nation Group.

During his keynote speech at the SMX Convention Center here, Mr. Duterte outlined the direction Asean would pursue under his chairmanship: place people at the core, work for regional peace and stability and pursue maritime security.

The President also vowed to “advance inclusive, innovation-led growth, strengthen Asean resiliency and promote the bloc as a model of regionalism and a global player.”

“As a regional organization and as a community, Asean has, in its disposal, the full complement mechanisms and initiatives that can significantly impact the lives of our citizens,” the 71-year old Chief Executive said.

Duterte, who was swept to power by a landslide victory in last May’s election, said he was “truly honored and humbled” as the Philippines took the helm of leadership of the half-century-old Asean, calling it as “a landmark in its continuing positive narrative.”

“It is an event to renew the enduring ties that bind all Asean member-states. It is an occasion to reaffirm the shared aspirations and values that will lead Asean to the future our peoples truly deserve,” the President said, whose shift away from the United States and towards its regional neighbors defined the independent foreign policy of his seven-month old administration.

“The warmth of the reception and the undeniable connection we encountered speak well of the inroads we have achieved since 1967 when representatives declared the establishment of the Association as a demonstration of the collective will of the nations of Southeast Asia to bind themselves together in friendship and cooperation and through joint efforts and sacrifices, secure for their peoples and for posterity the blessings of peace, freedom and prosperity,” he said.

The President said Asean “has seen the burning desire to move forward together based on shared values.”

“And we see the very same resolve to work together for a world that recognizes interconnectedness and respects sovereign independence. This is one of the important lessons that Asean can hold to the Asia-Pacific region and to our world,” Duterte added.

“In five years’ time, hopefully, the ideas we’ve put in place today will come to fruition, and all of our companies will be Southeast Asia’s leading companies,” said Yerkin Tatishev, the group’s chairman.

Kusto Group – set up in 2002 with the idea of “doing different things in different markets and industries” – buys poorly managed companies and sets about lifting their game.

“It’s about transforming the company, such as in terms of managing efficiency and creating a good corporate culture,” Tatishev, 40, told The Straits Times.

in a recent interview.“Whether it’s oil or construction, it doesn’t matter what business, the aim is to create companies that will offer solutions for today’s markets.”

Kusto Group owns more than 30 companies worldwide, including in Israel, Kazakhstan and Vietnam, and they are spread across the construction, energy, agriculture and real-estate sectors.

It claims it is seeing its companies grow from strength to strength.

The group’s Israeli company Tambour, for instance, is now known as the country’s leading manufacturer of paint and gypsum board, while its cement firms in Vietnam supply about 60 per cent of the market in central Vietnam, or up to 4 million tonnes of cement per year, Kusto says.

Also, the group’s Vietnamese construction business Coteccons saw its revenues double between 2012 and 2015, and is on track to achieve a 10 per cent share of the residential and industrial construction markets by 2020.

Vietnam, in particular, is a key growth driver for Kusto, Tatishev said, noting that Southeast Asia will be a major area of focus for the group in the next decade, given the huge potential in the region.

He added that the group, which drew a turnover of more than US$1 billion (Bt36 billion) last year, hopes to be able to invest in Singaporean companies by next year.

Tatishev said Kusto tried to buy a Singaporean restaurant chain in late 2014, but was not successful.

“Most of our companies have enough jobs in their own markets, where there’s still a lot of space to grow. But Singapore is quite developed, so the more powerful idea would be to take Singapore companies out into the world,” he said.

“There are a lot of strong products and technologies here that can be delivered to other markets. It does not matter what kind of business – it can be food, medicine, construction materials or technology – we want a company that has a strong platform, a strong product, and if we can take this and put it into new markets with growing demand, there will be huge opportunities.”

Tatishev said that as Kusto Group expands, it hoped eventually to have its companies list in Singapore as well. The group employs more than 8,000 staff worldwide, including a team of about 10 in Singapore.

“Here, there is a strong financial sector, good legal system, and the business environment is very supportive and efficient. For us, when we decided to become international and invest in different parts of the world, it came very naturally that we should be in Singapore,” he said.

The report motivated me to think more deeply about the current state of the Singapore economy and its future prospects. In this column, I wish to discuss four questions.

First, what is the current state of the Singapore economy?

Second, is it the worst-performing economy in Asia?

Third, are the problems of the economy cyclical or structural?

Fourth, should we be pessimistic or optimistic about the prospects of the Singapore economy?

The Singapore economy is projected to grow at 1.4 per cent this year.

With the exception of tourism and related industries, the other sectors of the economy are not doing well. Manufacturing, finance and insurance, construction, wholesale and retail are all experiencing weak growth. Non-oil domestic exports have actually shrunk, compared with a year ago. Fortunately, the unemployment rate remains very low at 2.1 per cent. In view of these facts, it is not surprising that the Business Optimism Index is in negative territory.

Worst in class?

Is the Singapore economy the worst-performing economy in Asia?

Singapore’s per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) last year was $72,711, the highest in Asia. Singapore’s performance should not be compared with those of low-income or middle-income countries because they are at different stages of their economic development.

Singapore should be compared with other high-income economies in Asia, namely Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong. Those four economies are projected to grow at 2.4, 2.6, 1.1 and 2.1 per cent, respectively, this year. Singapore is not the worst in class. Taiwan is.

Are the problems of the Singapore economy cyclical or structural in nature? I would argue that they are mainly cyclical but there may be some structural issues which we should consider.

It is well known that Singapore’s external trade is three times the size of its GDP. We are the most trade-dependent economy in the world. World trade is weak and this has affected our economy very badly.

In addition, with the exception of India and Asean, all the other major trading partners, such as China, the United States, Europe and Japan, are experiencing sub-optimal growth.

Another factor affecting us is the downturn in the oil and gas industry.

Some of our thoughtful economists have, however, pointed out that there are some structural problems. They point to high costs, restrictive labour policy and risk-averse policymakers as three of the problems.

They point out that many small and medium-sized enterprises are being squeezed by high rental, on the one hand, and the inability to employ more foreign workers, on the other hand.

Some of my friends have decided to close their businesses. They told me that they could not survive the constant pressure of escalating rent. The invention of the real estate investment trust (Reit) is a boon for investors but a bane for tenants. An Irish friend who has lived in Singapore for over three decades recently warned me that Singapore is in danger of becoming a rentier society.

Optimistic or pessimistic

Should we be optimistic or pessimistic about the future of the Singapore economy? I am optimistic for these reasons:

Singapore has a corruption-free business environment and the rule of law is strong.

We have world-class infrastructure and good connectivity.

It is easy to do business here and we enjoy industrial peace.

We have a skilled and hard-working workforce.

We have a critical mass of interlocking activities in our financial and regional business hubs.

We have an IT-literate population and we aim to transform Singapore into a smart nation.

We have a culture of accepting change and embracing technology, including disruptive technologies.

In our new world, the most important resource of a country is its people. Brain power is more important than muscle power. Knowledge-intensive industries represent the future. Innovation, creativity and productivity are the new engines of growth.

Singapore is doing a very good job in educating and training its young people. Singapore’s Primary 4 and Secondary 2 students were ranked No 1 for maths and science in the 2015 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study. Singapore’s 15-year-old students also came first for mathematics, science and reading in the 2015 Pisa survey conducted by the OECD in 72 countries. Finally, the National University of Singapore and Nanyang Technological University have been ranked No 1 and No 2 respectively in the 2016 Times Higher Education ranking of universities in Asia.

In the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index (2016-2017), Singapore is ranked No 2, after Switzerland. In the Institute of Management Development’s 2016 World Competitiveness Scoreboard, Singapore is ranked No 4, after Hong Kong, Switzerland and the US.

I am confident that when the world economy recovers and world trade bounces back, Singapore’s economy will experience an upturn.

Singapore is investing wisely in education and skills training. Led by the Committee on the Future Economy, we are preparing to reinvent ourselves again in order to take advantage of the new opportunities in the digital economy, in disruptive technologies and much more.

Singapore is very fortunate to sit astride the three biggest growth stories of human history, namely China, India and Asean. We will participate in these growth stories. In my view, Singapore has a very bright future. – Straits Times/ANN

Tommy Koh is ambassador-at-large at Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

As of December 21, the SET Index had risen 17 per cent since the beginning of the year, compared with a range of minus 4 per cent to plus 13 per cent for other markets in the region. This has been the best annual performance since 2012. This reflected strong profit growth of 35 per cent for the first nine months of 2016.

Nonetheless, we maintain our 12-month target for the SET Index at 1,570 points, based on a forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 15.4 times for 2017. The upside potential of the SET Index from the current level is quite limited in light of the fact that the EPS (earning per share) growth of the Thai market is relatively low compared with regional peers. As the government continues to accelerate its spending, mainly on infrastructure projects, to drive the economy, we believe that construction activity will be ramped up in 2017. This will be positive for leading Thai contractors like Sino Thai Engineering (STEC) and Ch Karnchang (CK). We estimate construction contracts of about Bt500 billion to open for bidding. DBS also expects the baht to be on a downtrend throughout 2017 because of the appreciation of US dollar after the recent increase in the US policy interest rate. This will benefit the Thai export sector.

On this count, we like KCE Electronics (KCE), which exports 95 per cent of its products. The company could also leverage on the fast-growing PCB (printed circuit board) market for the automotive segment.

We also maintain our top picks, which are ANAN (Ananda Development), COM7, GL (Group Lease), MTLS (Muangthai Leasing) and TCAP (Thanachart Capital).

Tisco Securities

For the final days of 2016, market sentiment is likely to be muted by the Christmas and New Year holidays, lacklustre growth in tourist arrivals, and the US Federal Reserve’s increase in its policy interest rate.

This month has been a very good one for the contractor sector, with significant progress in many mass-transit projects, including the announcement that the CK/STEC (Ch Karnchang/Sino-Thai Engineering and Construction) joint venture won the last contract (No 5) for the Orange Line for Bt4.9 billion. In all, the CKST group won the most contracts for this line with a combined value of Bt47 billion. CK holds 60 per cent and STEC owns 40 per cent in the JV. ITD (Italian-Thai Development) won a contract worth Bt18.59 billion, and UNIQ (Unique Engineering and Construction) got one worth Bt13.75 billion. We remain overweight on Thai contractors, with STEC, CK and UNIQ as our top picks. Note that we recently upgraded our rating on STEC from “hold” to “buy” after its joint ventures won three MRT line projects worth a total of Bt68.9 billion (STEC’s portion).

Nuttachart Mekmasin

Vice President

Trinity Securities

We expect the SET Index next year to move sideways in a range of 1,350-1,620 points. More downside risks are projected. Despite the likely depreciation of the US dollar, commodity prices are estimated to improve after higher inflationary pressure across the world. Amid the SET Index’ higher downward risks and likely less liquidity in the world, stock investment should be accumulated when the SET Index makes corrections. Stock picks for 2017: energy and petrochemical group – PTT, IVL (Indorama Ventures); agricultural business – BRR (Buriram Sugar), STA (Sri Trang Agro-Industry); food and beverages group – CPF (Charoen Pokphand Foods), TU (Thai Union Group); electronics group – SMT (Stars Microelectronics (Thailand)), SVI; and construction group – CK (Ch Karnchang), EAFCO.