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Asean’s new online customs system set to boost trade (nationthailand.com)

Asean’s new online customs system set to boost trade

EconDec 01. 2020

By The Nation

The region’s businesses can now access a powerful new online trading system connecting countries under a single cross-border transit regime, Asean Secretary-General Lim Jock Hoi announced on Monday.

The Asean Customs Transit System (ACTS) will reduce intra-Asean trading challenges and enable companies to benefit fully from the Asean Economic Community (AEC) and the free movement of goods across the region, he added.

The new system aims to meet twin goals set by Asean economic ministers in 2017 – to reduce trade transaction costs by 10 per cent by 2020 and double intra-Asean trade between 2017 and 2025.

The ACTS has been developed to allow businesses to lodge e-transit declarations directly with Asean customs authorities and to track the movement of their goods from departure to delivery at the final destination.

“The implementation of the Asean Customs Transit System plays a vital role in facilitating seamless movement of goods in the region. I believe the system would be an excellent tool in enhancing Asean’s trade and production networks as well as establishing a more unified market for its firms and consumers,” said Lim.

“The ACTS could also support post-Covid recovery to accelerate the transit movement of medical supplies, vaccines and Personal Protective Equipment within the member states,” he added.

Under the ACTS, businesses can make a single customs transit declaration that covers the transport of goods across multiple Asean countries, without the need to make repeated customs declarations or change vehicles at each border.

Faster customs clearance at borders helps accelerate transit movements, and reduce the time and expense of carrying out regional trade in goods, to the benefit of producers and consumers across the continental Asean region.

The system is managed by a permanent ACTS Central Management Team based in the Asean Secretariat in Jakarta, with support from the EU-funded ARISE Plus programme.

“The ACTS is a remarkable achievement that is testament to the strong, dynamic and long-standing partnership between Asean and the European Union,” said Koen Doens, director general for International Cooperation and Development at the European Commission.

The first successful ACTS transit movement occurred on October 23-24 with a truck travelling from Singapore via Malaysia to Thailand. The system will soon be available in Myanmar, and depending on business needs may later be expanded to Brunei, Indonesia and Philippines.

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Weakening dollar will make Thai investments attractive next year, predicts expert (nationthailand.com)

Weakening dollar will make Thai investments attractive next year, predicts expert

EconDec 01. 2020Tak Bunnag, head of Krungsri Bank’s Global Markets Group 

By
Wichit Chaitrong
The Nation

Next year, the Thai baht, stocks and bonds will be attractive for foreign investors because the US dollar is on a weakening trend, Tak Bunnag, chief of Krungsri Bank’s Global Markets Group, said on Tuesday.

The baht is expected to remain strong next year, moving up toward Bt29 against the dollar from the current rate of Bt30, he said. 

Krungsri predicts that the baht will appreciate to Bt29.75 to the dollar in the second quarter of next year, and then up to Bt29.25 in the fourth quarter. 

The key reason for the weakening of the US dollar is that the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its low-interest rate policy.  

The US has also been facing deficits in its budget and current account, contributing to a weaker dollar. The International Monetary Fund has projected that the US government will run a large budget deficit equivalent to 18.7 per cent of the GDP and a current account deficit at 2.1 per cent of the GDP this year. 

The baht was the strongest currency in the region last year, soaring 8.6 per cent before falling 8.63 per cent in the first quarter this year, the second weakest compared to the Indonesian rupiah, which fell 14.98 per cent.

However, in the fourth quarter of this year, as of November 24, the baht rose 4.12 per cent, second only to the Indonesian rupiah, which jumped 4.91 per cent. 

Apart from the currency, Thailand’s stock market has also been highly volatile this year. Thai stocks plunged in March when foreign investors made a net sell of about Bt80 billion due to panic over Covid-19.   

Foreign investors returned to the Thai stock market in November following news of a breakthrough in Covid-19 vaccines and Joe Biden’s win of the US presidency. Though foreign investors dumped Thai government bonds in March, they returned later in the year and purchased more in November. 

“In the first half of the year, investors were risk-off, but now they are risk-on,” said Tak, referring to investors’ appetite for exposure to risks.

In the first 11 months of 2020, foreign investors made a net sell of Thai stocks and bonds worth Bt260 billion and Bt48 billion, respectively.

Krungsri Research forecast that Thailand would have a current account surplus worth US$18.8 billion (Bt569 billion) next year, which is considered large even though it is lower than the surplus of $20.3 billion projected for this year. 

“The years of current account surplus [close to $40 billion in 2019] is making the baht stronger as capital inflow is larger than outflow,” Tak said. 

Thai bonds are also promising for investors as low inflation supports investment returns, given the low policy interest rate of 0.5 per cent, he said. 

Yields of 10-year bonds issued by the government is expected to be 1.1 per cent by the end of next year, up from 0.829 per cent at present. However, he said, US government bond yields are expected to be 1.55 per cent by the end of next year, up from 1.412 per cent currently. 

Tak forecast that the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee will leave the policy rate unchanged at 0.5 per cent next year.

He also believes that the Biden administration will ease the degree of trade protectionism to some extent, which will lessen the pressure on regional currencies, especially the Chinese yuan. 

In the first 11 months, the yuan rose 6 per cent against the dollar, which is unusual, Tak said. 

China’s economic growth has almost returned to pre-Covid level despite the appreciation of the yuan, so Thailand should learn from China and restructure industries to boost its competitiveness in the export market, Tak said. 

Krungsri Research has forecast 3.3 per cent growth for Thailand next year, up from the projection of 6.4 per cent contraction this year. Exports, a major growth engine, are expected to expand 4.5 per cent up from the projected 7.5 per cent contraction this year.

Tourist arrivals, however, will only be about 4 million next year, down from 6.7 million this year and 39.7 million last year. “We are worried about slow recovery in the tourism sector,” Tak said.

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SET gain outstripped by rise in other Asian markets (nationthailand.com)

SET gain outstripped by rise in other Asian markets

EconDec 01. 2020

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,420.87 on Tuesday, up 12.56 points or 0.89 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt78 billion with an index high of 1,430.03 and a low of 1,416.39.

In the morning session, an analyst at Krungsri Securities predicted the day’s index would fluctuate between 1,400 and 1,420 despite the rise in other Asian indices.

“We expect the SET to face high volatility as investors delay trading to follow the Opec+ meeting and the Constitutional Court ruling in a case against Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha, as well as uncertainty over the Covid-19 pandemic,” he said.

The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were KBANK, PTT, ADVANC, GPSC, SCB, PTTEP, AOT, JR, SCGP and CPALL.

As of 4.30pm, the price of oil rose by US$0.25 or 0.55 per cent to $45.59 per barrel, while gold rose by $13.30 or 0.75 per cent, to $1,794.20 per ounce.

Other Asian indices were on the rise:

Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 26,787.54, up 353.92 points or 1.34 per cent.

China’s Shang Hai SE Composite Index closed at 3,451.94, up 60.18 points or 1.77 per cent, while the Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 13,930.38, up 260.26 points or 1.90 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 26,567.68, up 226.19 points or 0.86 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 2,634.25, up 42.91 points or 1.66 per cent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 13,885.67, up 162.78 points or 1.19 per cent.

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Long weekend this month pushes up hotel booking rates (nationthailand.com)

Long weekend this month pushes up hotel booking rates

EconDec 01. 2020

By The Nation

Hotel bookings in Thailand are riding a high for the upcoming long weekend, especially in Phuket, the World Hotel Index reported.

The index run by SiteMinder found that the rate of bookings in Thailand this week surpassed 59 per cent of the 2019 booking rate for the third time this year since March.

Since October, the booking rate of 14 hotels has increased by more than 77 per cent, especially those in Phuket which enjoyed the highest booking rate in 250 days.

The same phenomenon was seen during a four-day-long weekend in November.

A long weekend beginning with Constitution Day on December 10 has spurred a sudden increase in bookings among Thai tourists.

Over 17 per cent of the number of tourists in the coming months travel over the holidays. The number of hotel reservations tends to soar near the end of the weekend, the index reported.

“After the accommodation business in Thailand faced a difficult situation this year, we are glad to see Thai people support the tourism business during this four-day holiday,” said Brad Hines, regional vice president of Asia Pacific at SiteMinder.

“With the measure to restrict foreigners’ entry into Thailand still on, this is a great opportunity for Thais to travel within the country and experience the beauty of Thailand before foreign tourists gradually travel to Thailand again,” he said.

The increase in hotel reservation rates in Thailand is also in line with hotel reservation rates in other Asian countries.

In Taiwan, the rate of bookings increased by more than 20 per cent from the previous month. The Philippines was up 33 per cent from the previous month, and Vietnam was up 63 per cent from the previous month, according to World Hotel Index.

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News of Covid-19 vaccine pushes up oil prices (nationthailand.com)

News of Covid-19 vaccine pushes up oil prices

EconDec 01. 2020

By The Nation

The price of oil is expected to move upwards this week (November 30 to December 4) thanks to positive news about AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine, PTT’s International Trading Business Unit forecast on Tuesday.

The unit said the price of oil had been affected by the smooth US presidential transition and Shell’s oil-delivery accident in Nigeria’s Brass River on November 24. The unit also said that the number of oil rigs in the US rose by 10 rigs to 241 as of November 25.

“We advise following the Opec+ meeting as the organisation’s plan to cut oil production to 7.7 million barrels daily will be extended until the first quarter next year,” the unit added.

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SET slumps over MSCI’s decision to cut Thai investments, new Covid infections, pending court verdict on PM (nationthailand.com)

SET slumps over MSCI’s decision to cut Thai investments, new Covid infections, pending court verdict on PM

EconDec 01. 2020

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index fell almost 30 points on Monday due to global investment firm MSCI’s decision to reduce investments in Thai stocks, worries over rising Covid-19 cases in Thailand and the pending Constitutional Court ruling in a case against Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, experts said.

The SET Index closed at 1,408.31 on Monday, down 29.47 points or 2.05 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt120 billion with an index high of 1,435.04 and a low of 1,408.02.

Foreign and institutional investors made net sales of Bt4.37 billion and Bt2.98 billion respectively, while securities accounts and general investors made net buys of Bt725.71 million and Bt6.62 billion, respectively.

Therdsak Thaveeteeratham, Asia Plus Securities executive vice president for research, said SET faced short-term correction on Monday as domestic and foreign investors sold off stocks to reduce their risks from the new Covid-19 cases in Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai, as well as the pending court ruling in Prayut’s case on Wednesday.

“The Constitutional Court’s ruling on Prayut could affect Thailand’s economy in terms of policy continuation, because he may be removed from office at a time when the economy is recovering gradually,” he said.

He said he expects SET to move upwards as foreign funds are still flowing into Asian markets.

“If there is no negative sentiment, we expect Thailand’s deposits of Bt15.5 trillion to flow into the stock market due to low interest offered on deposits,” he said, adding that SET is expected to hit 1,550 points next year.

He advised investors to buy stocks that are likely to rise next year, such as commercial banks that will benefit from the economic recovery and construction stocks that would benefit from the government’s investment in various projects.

Kitichan Sirisukarcha, CGS CIMB Securities senior vice president for research, said SET fell on Monday due to MSCI’s move to reduce investment in Thai stocks from 1.9 per cent to 1.87 per cent, worries over rising Covid-19 cases and Washington’s move to ban another four Chinese firms as well as Thai and foreign investors’ move to speculate after the index skyrocketed by 243 points or 20 per cent in the previous month.

“However, we expect foreign funds to flow into the stock market as positive news of Covid-19 vaccine will help boost Thailand’s economy and SET-listed companies’ profits next year,” he said.

He advised investors to buy petrochemical, oil refinery, energy and commercial bank shares.

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SET expected to be uneasy as verdict looms in case against Prayut (nationthailand.com)

SET expected to be uneasy as verdict looms in case against Prayut

EconDec 01. 2020

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index rose by 10.77 points, or 0.76 per cent, to 1,419.08 in the morning session on Tuesday.

An analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the day’s index to fluctuate between 1,400 and 1,420 despite the rise in other Asian indices in the morning session.

“We expect the SET to face high volatility as investors are delaying their trade to follow the Opec+ meeting and the Constitutional Court ruling in a case against Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha, as well as uncertainty over the Covid-19 pandemic,” he said.

He recommended that investors buy:

▪︎ AMATA, WHA, SAT and AH that will benefit from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership pact.

▪︎ PTTEP, PTTGC, TOP, IVL and SPRC that benefit from the rising oil price.

The SET Index closed at 1,408.31 on Monday, down 29.47 points or 2.05 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt120 billion with an index high of 1,435.04 and a low of 1,408.02.

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Thai gold price edges up despite fall in US, Hong Kong markets (nationthailand.com)

Thai gold price edges up despite fall in US, Hong Kong markets

EconDec 01. 2020

By The Nation

The price of gold in Thailand rose by Bt50 per baht weight in morning trade on Tuesday after falling by Bt200 per baht weight at close on Monday, the Gold Traders Association reported.

As of 9.28am, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt25,450 per baht weight and selling price Bt25,550 while gold ornaments were priced at Bt24,998.84 and Bt26,050, respectively.

At close on Monday, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt25,400 per baht weight and selling price Bt25,500, while gold ornaments were Bt24,938.20 and Bt26,000, respectively.

Spot gold price moved to US$1,780 (Bt53,842) per ounce in the morning, while Comex (Commodity Exchange) gold price to be delivered in February next year dropped by $7.2 to $1,780.9 per ounce on Monday due to mass sell-offs in safe-haven assets amid positive news of a Covid-19 vaccine.

Hong Kong gold price, meanwhile, dropped by HK$20 to $16,430 (Bt64,112) per tael, the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society reported.

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U.S. stocks fall from record highs (nationthailand.com)

U.S. stocks fall from record highs

EconDec 01. 2020

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Vildana Hajric, Kamaron Leach

U.S. stocks fell from records as investors assessed the prospects for risk assets after a blistering month long rally. The dollar strengthened.

The S&P 500 dropped the most in more than a week, though the benchmark index still registered its best month since April. Global stocks and American small caps posted their best months on record. Broad selling sent the Dow Jones industrial average lower. The tech-heavy Nasdaq indexes that trailed in November fared better, briefly touching another record high on Monday. Gold slumped, and Bitcoin rallied back to an all-time high.

“The market may be getting tired from its very strong November and simultaneous all time highs (DJIA, S&P and Russell 2K), which could push the benchmarks into a traditional mid-December low,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.

The rapid pace to a coronavirus vaccine has given investors the confidence to price in a return to normalcy and faster economic growth, helping lift shares of companies that were hardest hit by the pandemic.

Over the weekend, Surgeon General Jerome Adams said the federal government hopes to quickly review and approve requests from two drugmakers for emergency approval of their covid-19 vaccines.

“November has been such an unbelievable move up,” said Andrew Mies, chief investment officer of 6 Meridian. “All that is being driven by the vaccine.”

Shares of Moderna surged 20% on Monday after the company said it plans to request clearance for its coronavirus vaccine in the U.S. and Europe.

The MSCI World index soared 13% in November, the best performance on record.

The risk-on mood across markets has hurt demand for haven assets. Gold posted its largest monthly decline in four years. Even after gaining on Monday, the dollar slumped 2.4% in November.

Oil edged lower in New York. OPEC+ began two days of potentially complicated talks to hash out the size of its oil-production cuts next year, with the group’s president calling for caution in a fragile market.

Elsewhere, the MSCI Asia Pacific index sank 1.6% on Monday, the biggest loss in a month.

Bitcoin took less than three years to replicate the euphoric ascent that catapulted the cryptocurrency into the mainstream consciousness. The world’s largest digital asset rose as much as 8.7%, to $19,351, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It traded at a few cents for several years after its late 2008 launch by an unknown software developer in the wake of the global financial crash.

These are some key events coming up:

– – –

– The Reserve Bank of Australia holds a policy meeting Tuesday.

– Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday.

– The U.S. employment report on Friday is expected to show that more Americans headed back to work in November, though at a slower pace than last month.

Here are some of the main moves in markets:

– The S&P 500 index declined 0.5%, to 3,621.82 as of 4:01 p.m. New York time, the lowest in a week on the largest drop in more than a week.

– The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.9%, to 29,643.97, the lowest in a week on the biggest dip in more than a week.

– The Nasdaq Composite index dipped 0.1%, to 12,198.74, the first retreat in more than a week.

– The MSCI All-Country World index sank 0.9%, to 617.87, the lowest in a week on the biggest dip in a month.

The Stoxx Europe 600 index sank 1%, to 389.36, the lowest in a week on the largest decrease in more than a month.

Currencies

– The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index jumped 0.3%, to 1,144.98, the highest in a week on the biggest increase in three weeks.

– The euro decreased 0.3%, to $1.1927, the largest decrease in almost three weeks.

– The Japanese yen weakened 0.3%, to 104.40 per dollar, the biggest fall in a week.

Bonds

– The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose one basis point, to 0.85%.

– The yield on 30-year Treasuries increased one basis point, to 1.58%.

– Germany’s 10-year yield rose two basis points, to -0.57%.

– Britain’s 10-year yield climbed two basis points, to 0.305%, the biggest surge in almost three weeks.

Commodities

– West Texas Intermediate crude sank 0.7%, to $45.19 a barrel, the largest decrease in more than two weeks.

– Gold depreciated 0.7%, to $1,776.09 an ounce, the weakest in five months.

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AOT revising Suvarnabhumi’s Bt44bn northern expansion plan (nationthailand.com)

AOT revising Suvarnabhumi’s Bt44bn northern expansion plan

EconDec 01. 2020

By The Nation

Airports of Thailand (AOT) is revising its planned Bt44-billion northern expansion of Suvarnabhumi Airport, said AoT president Nitinai Sirismatthakarn.

The revision to bring the plan in line with the “new normal” concept is expected to take between one and two months to complete.

The new northern terminal will have annual capacity for 30 million passengers.

Also to be drawn up are details for projects to extend the existing passenger terminal eastwards and westwards, he added.

Nitinai expressed confidence the global aviation sector would return to normal next year when Covid-19 vaccines are expected to become available.

The number of passengers at Suvarnabhumi is forecast to return to pre-outbreak levels of 65 million in 2023.

Meanwhile, AOT expects to finish construction of Satellite Terminal 1 in 2022, boosting Suvarnabhumi’s annual capacity by 15 million passengers.