Two sizable reporting errors in as many weeks have inflated the U.S. Labor Department’s nationwide jobless-claims count and the number of applicants under a federal emergency program. On top of that, the report has been beset by data quirks stemming from filing schedules that vary from state to state, as well as seasonal adjustments that have been rendered less useful because of the explosion in layoffs during the coronavirus pandemic.

While it’s not uncommon for claims to be revised, nor will the latest complications alter the bleak and sudden deterioration in the labor market, the errors come at a time when economists and policymakers are attempting to get the best-possible handle on the pandemic’s damage to the economy and the pace of recovery.

“It’s clear you cannot overemphasize or overfocus on any one week of a data point for a particular state given the volatility that we have, given the backlogs that a lot of these states have had to work through,” said Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank.

“As states begin to reopen, and as we’ve had this staggered reopening across different states, we will be looking at how that reopening is impacting the pace of improvement in claims,” Luzzetti said.

The latest report was marred by a data-entry error from the Massachusetts labor agency. An official from the state said in an email that it had 115,952 initial claims last week under the separate federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program, not the 1,184,792 shown in the U.S. Labor Department’s report.

That means nationwide claims under that program — which expands unemployment benefits to those not traditionally eligible, such the self-employed and gig workers — were actually about half of the reported 2.23 million figure. The U.S. Labor Department said it will incorporate the correction into next week’s report.

A week earlier, Connecticut corrected its count to show 29,846 new claims for the regular state program from a previously reported 298,680, explaining most of a 294,000 downward revision in the U.S. Labor Department’s adjusted figure for the week ended May 9.

Initial jobless claims for regular state programs totaled 2.44 million in the week ended May 16, Labor Department figures showed Thursday. Since efforts to the contain covid-19 pandemic rapidly shut down the economy in mid-March, about 38.6 million initial unemployment insurance claims have been filed under state programs. That’s roughly equivalent to all of the initial claims filed during the Great Recession, from December 2007 through June 2009.

Washington state has had its own troubles. Its Employment Security Department said Thursday that a fraud scheme has led to hundreds of millions of dollars in unemployment benefits going to impostors, according to the Associated Press. On its website, the department said part of last week’s spike in applications likely reflected an “increase in fraudulent claims.”

The state reported 138,733 initial regular unemployment claims in the week ended May 16 in its own release, up 29,308 from the previous week, and an increase of nearly 370,000 in total claims for all unemployment benefit categories from the prior week.

Differences in how frequently people claim continued benefits in states are yet another reason why it’s become more difficult to get a precise read on week-to-week changes in the labor market at the state level. Economists are monitoring the number of Americans already on benefit rolls to gauge the breadth of the recovery in the labor market as states begin to reopen their economies.

These data are lagged by a week, and in the period ended May 9, the majority of states reported an unadjusted decline, a sign that reopenings are putting people back to work in many parts of the country. Yet, total continuing claims jumped an adjusted 2.5 million to a record 25.1 million. The increase was due largely to big unadjusted spikes in California and Florida, and the California rise owes in part to a biweekly filing cycle for aid recipients.

The enormous influx of claims has overwhelmed state unemployment offices. Florida, which has received more than 2 million total claims since March 15, has more than 200,000 filings in its queue awaiting verification. Backlogs have led to delays for millions of Americans across the country in receiving payments, as states scramble to keep up with the unprecedented number of claims.

Errors and differing state reporting methods aside, some economists are looking to the raw numbers for a more accurate read on applications amid challenges with the federal agency’s seasonal adjustment process. On an non-seasonally adjusted basis, initial claims eased to 2.17 million last week from 2.36 million. Continuing claims on that basis totaled 22.9 million for the week ended May 9, up from 20.9 million.

“Given what’s going on is not part of any typical seasonal pattern or anything, I think the NSA data has given you probably a little bit better of a more accurate picture of what’s going on in the data,” Luzzetti said.

Total transaction volume stood at Bt64.469 billion with an index high of 1,311.54 and a low of 1,286.76.

A Krungsri Securities stock analyst said he expects the index to fluctuate between 1,310 and 1,330, adding that the market initially gained positive sentiment from the rising price of crude oil and the Thai Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to cut key interest rate to stimulate the economy.

“The price of crude oil rose to over US$33 per barrel after US crude stockpiles dropped by 5 million barrels,” the analyst said.

However, he added, the index will be under pressure over uncertainty about the renewal of US-China trade conflict, a rising number of US citizens claiming unemployment benefits and a tight SET valuation.

“The US Senate recently passed the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act that could bar some Chinese companies from listing on US exchanges. Also, the US reported another 2.44 million citizens claiming unemployment benefits,” the analyst said.

The top 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were STA, BAM, PTT, PTTEP, GULF, AOT, GPSC, PTTGC, CPALL, and IVL.

As of 4.30pm, the price of crude oil dropped by $1.87 or 5.51 per cent to $32.05 per barrel, while gold rose by $14.20 or 0.82 per cent, to $1,736.10 per ounce.

Global indices were also on a slide due to concerns over Hong Kong tensions and slow Covid-19 recovery fears:

Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 20,388.16, down 164.15 points, or 0.80 per cent.

China’s Shanghai SE Composite Index closed at 2,827.30, down 40.62 points, or 1.42 per cent, while Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 10,672.09, down 173.31 points, or 1.60 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 22,930.14, down 1,349.89 points, or 5.56 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 1,970.13, down 28.18 points, or 1.41 per cent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 10,811.15, down 197.16 points, or 1.79 per cent.

Exports in the first four months of this year expanded 1.19 per cent to $81.620 billion, while imports contracted 5.72 per cent to $75.224 billion.

SET officials explained that volatility in market had increased after the Covid-19 outbreak, causing volatility in economy. The possible extension will be discussed at a public hearing this week.

“We are currently in the process of accepting comments from relevant parties,” the officials said.

Somchai Kanjanapetcharat, senior managing director at KGI Securities (Thailand,) said that although the extension would mitigate the impact from market volatility, it would also cause difficulties for investors who speculate by shorting stocks.

“Institutional investors have an advantage over individual investors because institutional investors can borrow stocks to make short sales, while individual investors have to make short sales via Single Stock Futures or Derivative Warrants [DWs], causing short sale transactions to drop,” he said.

“Meanwhile, the decline in ceiling and floor prices criteria also reduce investors’ chance to make a profit, causing the trading volume of clients and brokers to drop as well.”

Montree Sornpaisarn, chief executive officer of Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand), advised the SET to permanently adopt the use of short sales criteria which force investors to make short sales only when the stock price is higher than the last trading price.

“After the measure was issued, investors were not taken advantage of by other investors pressuring stock prices and causing damage,” he said.

As of 9.27am, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt25,900 per baht weight and selling price Bt26,100, while gold ornaments were priced at Bt25,438.48 and Bt26,600, respectively.

At close on Thursday (May 21), the buying price of a gold bar was Bt25,950 per baht weight and selling price Bt26,150, while gold ornaments were priced at Bt25,483.96 and Bt26,650, respectively.

The Gold Spot Index price on Friday morning moved to around US$1,727 (Bt55,043) per ounce after the price dropped by $30.2 to $1,721.9 per ounce at close on Thursday.

Gold price was under pressure from the strengthening dollar, while the recovery of service and manufacturing sectors in US and Europe had an impact on holding gold as a safe haven asset.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong gold price dropped by HK$45 to $15,985 (Bt65,724) per tael.

The SET Index opened at 1,311.03, down 9.66 points, or 0.73 per cent, on Friday (May 22) morning.

A Krungsri Securities stock analyst expected the index to fluctuate between 1,310 and 1,330.

The market gained positive sentiment from the rising crude oil price and the Thai Monetary Policy Committee’s move to cut the key interest rate to 0.50 per cent to stimulate the economy.

“The price of crude oil rose to over US$33 per barrel after US crude stockpiles dropped by 5 million barrels,” the analyst said.

However, the index would be under pressure due to uncertainty following the renewal of the US-China trade war, the increasing number of Americans claiming jobless benefits, and the tight SET valuation.

“Recently, the US Senate passed the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act that could bar some Chinese companies from listing on US exchanges,” the analyst said.

“Meanwhile the US reported another 2.44 million Americans claiming jobless benefits.”

The analyst recommended investors to buy these stocks:

● Energy stocks, such as PTT, PTTEP, TOP, PTTGC, IRPC and SPRC, due to a rise in the price of crude oil.

● Financial stocks, such as KTC, SAWAD, MTC, JMT and BAM, due to a drop in interest cost.

● Stocks whose second quarter performance would improve, such as CKP, TASCO, STA and EPG.

“We advise investors to follow the Ministry of Commerce’s report about Thai foreign trade in April,” the analyst said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/c/embed/fc527080-e610-4bb0-8b1d-5d3beb021b47

The latest round of threats came hours after U.S. government released dour new jobless figures showing an additional 2.4 million Americans sought unemployment aid just last week, further compounding an economic crisis that already rivals the Great Depression in its severity. Over the span of nine weeks, more than 38 million Americans have filed unemployment claims across the country because of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

In March, Congress passed a law that gave people filing for unemployment benefits an additional $600 each week until July. The debate about whether to extent those benefits this summer have touched off fierce debate in Washington over the extent to which continued aid is necessary to stimulate a sagging economy.

Some White House officials and Republicans believe the extra payments are creating a disincentive for people to return to the workforce, potentially holding back the economic recovery. But so far there is no consensus over how to proceed, with some calling for phasing out the benefits entirely and others supporting a one-time payment that could encourage Americans to return to work.

“In certain cases, we’re actually paying people more than they made so we have to fix that,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in an interview with The Hill newspaper.

Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell blasted the expanded benefits as a “crazy policy” in a private meeting with lawmakers Wednesday, according to a person familiar with the remarks. The party’s position is backed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which on Thursday joined Republicans in arguing the extra payments might deter people from returning to work.

The renewed Republican opposition has incensed some congressional Democrats, who instead have sought to maintain and augment federal unemployment aid. During the Great Recession, lawmakers from both parties extended expanded unemployment benefits because so many Americans struggled to find work, particularly when long-term unemployment became a growing problem. The unemployment rate in April hit 14.7 percent, higher than any point during the Great Recession, suggesting the unemployment benefit challenges could prove even more complicated this time.

Democrats argue along with a stable of economists that the expanded jobless benefits are critical at a time when Americans have lost their jobs through no fault of their own – and desperately need the money to pay their bills and protect their homes.

“The worst thing Republicans can do to the economy and American families is to allow supercharged unemployment benefits to expire,” said Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore.

The White House declined to comment for this story. On Wednesday, White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said at a news briefing that the president would not “rush forward with spending trillions more dollars in taxpayer money.”

Spokespeople for Mnuchin and McConnell did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

For now, the new unemployment figures released Thursday further illustrate the precipitous economic decline caused by the coronavirus outbreak, which has shuttered many businesses nationwide. The impact on the labor market has been swift and severe, and it’s unclear how many newly unemployed will be able to quickly return to their old jobs.

Some Americans had struggled for weeks to obtain the benefits after a flood of applications overwhelmed aging or neglected computer systems in states including Florida, New York and Maryland. These and other states later made immense progress in reducing their backlogs, though delays still remain. More than 200,000 out-of-work Americans are in line for payments in Florida, state data show, while the New York backlog stands at about 44,000, it reported Wednesday. About 7,000 claims had been pending review there for roughly a month.

“The economic need is not going away,” said Martha Gimbel, a labor economist at Schmidt Futures. “The fact that we are two months into this, and we’re still getting multimillion claims numbers, speaks to how deep and intense the economic pain is right now.”

The threat of a protracted downturn prompted Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve Board, to warn that Congress may need to authorize additional stimulus during a hearing with the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. Trump and some of his top aides, however, have articulated a contrary view, insisting that business is set to rebound – and jobs will return – much more quickly than experts envision. “We’re opening up; the states are opening up,” Trump affirmed again on Tuesday. “It’s a transition to greatness.”

In response to the coronavirus, lawmakers in March extended unemployment support for an additional 13 weeks while granting new benefits to workers otherwise ineligible for jobless aid. That includes self-employed and so-called gig economy laborers, including those who drive for companies such as Uber. But the centerpiece of lawmakers’ efforts had been the additional $600-per-week in payments they authorized for out-of-work Americans until the end of July. Mnuchin reached the agreement with Democrats to include payments of that amount, even though some Senate Republicans immediately complained that the payments would be too high.

The heightened unemployment benefits had been designed to replace workers’ wages, unlike unemployment in normal times, which often only covers a small fraction of what people earn while they have a job. “They feel like they have some breathing room,” said Michele Evermore, a senior policy analyst at the National Employment Law Project. “For them to have enough money to know they can stock up on groceries, and finally get caught up on bills, and know their housing is okay – it’s a lifeline.”

But business groups have balked at the payments, fearing they are too high and making it less likely that Americans will quickly look to return to work.

Two-thirds of unemployed workers who are receiving benefits are earning more than they were taking home previously while on the job, according to a May analysis from the University of Chicago’s Becker Friedman Institute for Economics. Conservative groups and congressional Republicans have touted the study in recent days, while anecdotally, companies say they’re having a hard time persuading workers to return to their old jobs – even though some laborers say their reluctance is the result of unaddressed safety concerns.

“It absolutely makes sense in this current health pandemic, when businesses are forced to close their doors, to provide a higher level of benefit,” said Rachel Greszler, a research fellow who focuses on budget issues for the Heritage Foundation. But, she said, the Cares Act program “introduces a lot of inequities and perverse incentives that damage the economy.”

Neil Bradley, executive vice president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, told reporters on a conference call Thursday that the business lobby opposes continuing the $600-per-week additional unemployment benefit, which he described as an “across-the-board bonus.” Bradley said that this enhanced benefit provides more income for many workers than their jobs did.

With an eye on the July deadline, Democrats have put forward a slew of proposals to bulk up unemployment insurance. Last week, House Democrats approved a $3 trillion coronavirus relief bill that would authorize enhanced unemployment benefits until the end of the year, arguing such payments are critical toward keeping hard-hit Americans financially afloat.

But top congressional Republicans instead have signaled support for paring back these benefits, including during a meeting on Tuesday attended by Vice President Mike Pence along with Mnuchin, McConnell and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., according to a person familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the private conversations.

Talks remain in flux.

“On a lot of this stuff there isn’t a real consensus yet that’s formed because some of these programs are just delivering, and we’re kind of getting feedback on how they’re working so I think it’s going to take a little while,” said Senate Majority Whip John Thune, R-S.D., on Thursday.

Some Senate Republicans, however, publicly maintain they are unified in their opposition to extending the $600 unemployment benefit, said Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., who said he called the president around the time of the passage of the Cares Act to object to the provision.

“I don’t know of anybody that’s not on board,” he said. “The government is competing with businesses for workers, and that’s the craziest idea ever. . . . We can’t hurt our ability to reopen the economy.”

Several Senate Republican staffers privately have told advisers off Capitol Hill that they expect the GOP to accept some extension of the unemployment benefits increase, despite the caucus’s opposition to the expansion, according to two people familiar with the private conversations. They are debating a number of different scenarios, including a one-time return-to-work bonus and approving a smaller federal subsidy to the benefits that comes in lower than $600.

At the meeting, related agencies were given the job of setting up a working panel to coordinate both the upgrading of the U-Tapao International Airport and the Eastern Airport City Project at U-Tapao, as well as the development of high-speed railways linking U-Tapao Airport with Don Mueang and Suvarnabhumi airports.

The committee wants both projects to be developed simultaneously and completed at around the same time in a move to capitalise on their connectivity, maximise their economic benefits as well as offer additional convenience to the public.

The meeting also approved a draft contract on investment for the upgrading of U-Tapao International Airport and the Eastern Airport City Project. The draft will be presented to the Cabinet for approval, said Kanit Sangsubhan, secretary-general of the EEC Office of Thailand.

This draft will be signed by the Royal Thai Navy, which owns the project, and the winning bidder BBS consortium. The consortium comprises BTS Group Holdings, Sino-Thai Engineering and Construction, and Bangkok Airways.

Once upgraded, U-Tapao International Airport will serve as the third international airport of the capital. It is expected to generate up to Bt305 billion in financial returns from the lease of land and revenue sharing, as well as create 15,600 jobs in the first five years. All assets will be transferred to the state once the contract ends in 50 years.

The project, which covers 6,500 rais, include the world-class Terminal 3 as well as a commercial gateway, air cargo terminal, a maintenance repair and overhaul service centre, free trade zone, and aviation training centre.

Kanit said the project construction will begin this year and be completed in 2023.

Chief Executive Officer Jeff Gennette said Thursday that his company is working to introduce curbside pickup at its Herald Square location. Getting the store generating revenue again is a big deal for Macy’s: The location is the largest department store in the U.S. and a vital part of the retailer’s fleet. He expects service to begin in the next couple of weeks.

All of New York City’s enormous flagship stores have been closed to the public since mid-March due to the coronavirus pandemic. This includes Macy’s, Bloomingdale’s, Saks Fifth Avenue, Bergdorf Goodman, Nordstrom and Neiman Marcus. The companies have invested billions in these stores to serve as beacons for tourists and locals alike.

“New York City is very top-of-mind for us,” Gennette said during a call. He added there’s no timeline yet on when the store may allow shoppers back inside. New York State’s restrictions are scheduled to stay in place through June 13.

Department stores have been hard-hit by the two-month shutdown. Macy’s estimates a $1.1 billion loss in operating income for the quarter and has paused investment in its best-performing stores to refocus on digital sales. Executives are also accelerating the cost-cutting initiatives that are part their ongoing turnaround plan.

Macy’s expects to have four of every five stores operating in some capacity by the end of the week. The retailer has 775 locations in the U.S.

Total transactions amounted to Bt70.212 billion with an index high of 1,333.25 and a low of 1,315.03.

A Krungsri Securities stock analyst said he expects the index to rise between 1,330 and 1,335 before falling.

The market gained positive sentiment from the rising price of crude oil, hopes that the US Federal Reserve will issue additional economic stimulus measures to mitigate the impact of Covid-19 and the Thai Monetary Policy Committee‘s move to cut the key interest rate by 0.25 percentage point to 0.5 per cent.

“The price of crude oil rose to over US$33 per barrel after US crude stockpiles dropped by 5 million barrels,” the analyst said.

However, he advised investors to beware of mass sell-offs as the index’s price-to-earnings ratio has risen by over 17 times and banks’ net interest margin is likely to drop in line with interest rate.

The top 10 stocks with the highest trade values today were GULF, BAM, STA, MINT, TRUE, CPALL, PTT, AOT, PTTEP and SAWAD.

As of 4.30pm, crude oil price rose by $0.76 or 2.27 per cent to $34.25 per barrel, while gold dropped by $18.80 or 1.07 per cent to $1,733.30 per ounce.

US and European indices were on the slide, while Asian indices had a mixed day:

Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 20,552.31, down 42.84 points, or 0.21 per cent.

China’s Shanghai SE Composite Index closed at 2,867.92, down 15.81 points, or 0.55 per cent, while Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 10,845.40, down 103.08 points, or 0.94 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 24,280.03, down 119.92 points, or 0.49 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 1,998.31, up 8.67 points, or 0.44 per cent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 11,008.31, up 100.51 points, or 0.92 per cent.