“Part of legislating the new cybersecurity laws is making sure that the rules are flexible, market-oriented as opposed to being highly top-down and prescriptive,” said Jared Ragland, senior director for policy for Asia-Pacific at BSA, The Software Alliance, in an interview with The Nation yesterday.

The government aims to submit four bills to the Cabinet covering cyber security, data protection and electronic transactions as well as for the establishment of the Electronic Transactions Development Agency (ETDA), according to Pichet Durongkaveroj, Minister for Digital Economy and Society.

Ragland said: “Because the technology is moving so fast, and the way technology is being used is changing so quickly that highly prescriptive regulatory approaches are most likely going to be inadequate and potentially create problems.”

He is calling on the government to “create effective regulation instead of simply tightening regulation” in relation cybersecurity.

BSA, The Software Alliance, is an advocate for the global software industry with governments and in the international marketplace. The industry association is based in Washington DC, with an Asia-Pacific agency in Singapore. BSA members include large multinational companies such as Apple, Adobe, Amazon Web Services, Intel and Microsoft.

They association works on promoting licence compliance policies, helping local governments draft effective cybersecurity laws and enhance personal data protection laws.

One of the biggest cybersecurity issues facing Thailand is that it does not have a centralised command and control centre for cybersecurity and no comprehensive legal framework for managing risks, Ragland said.

“It is reasonable that the financial regulator has its own sets of rules. But on the other hand, you also need a coordinating centre that makes sure that the financial regulator is not doing something that is completely incompatible to what the healthcare regulator is doing,” he said.

“If you’re asking a large multinational company in Thailand or even a local Thai innovator to redesign their cybersecurity systems for each and every different government sector, such as one for finance and a separate one for health care, then it causes a lot of inefficiencies to the customers. “This is why it is important to get the current cybersecurity bill drafted.”

However, there are still some issues that could create problems if they are enacted as currently written, Ragland said.

“The main problem with the current draft is the overly broad and inadequately permitted powers that would be provided or given to the national cybersecurity commission,” he said.

The law would benefit by making more explicit the checks and balances. Also required is some independent oversight on how the commission conducts its commission and investigatory powers, so that it doesn’t disproportionately react to threats and cause an unnecessary burden for private businesses, Ragland said.

“If these bills are not enacted by end of this year, after the election set for next year, the new government should quickly pick up where it was left off, instead of scrapping all progress so far and starting all over again,” he said.

Thailand now has a score of 48.4 on the 2018 BSA Global Cloud Computing Scorecard, based on research which compares the level of data privacy, security, cybersecurity, intellectual property rights, standards and international harmonisation, promoting free trade, and IT readiness. The country ranks higher than India, Russia and China, but is behind Japan, Malaysia and South Korea.

Thailand should be concerned about trends in global trade, as they greatly affect the Thai economy due to its reliance on exports, said Supachai Panitchapakdi, former chief of the World Trade Organisation and former secretary-general of the United Nations Conference Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

The key threat from the trade war between the United States and China is not the level of tariffs but the uncertainty that comes with it, said Jayati Ghosh, professor of economics at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.

The two prominent economists issued their warnings during the launch of UNCTAD’s Trade and Development Report 2018 in Bangkok.

Uncertainty from the trade war ties in with how finance remains under-regulated even 10 years after the 2008 financial crisis. This poses big risks to world trade, said Ghosh.

“This issue affects all of us. We get speculative capital inflows, but there are also massive capital outflows whenever there is a hint of a crisis. That has already happened. It has started in many countries such as Argentina, Brazil and Turkey. It is also evident in the Asian stock market, which has fallen significantly in the past month,” she continued.

Uncertainty as a result of the ongoing trade war affects investments, as investors lose confidence and capital starts to flow out of the market, she said. This could lead to a fall in output and a rise in unemployment for all of us, including exporting countries like Thailand, she feared.

The unpredictable change from global capital flows as a result of the ongoing trade war and its uncertainties will eventually lead to problems with the depreciation of currencies as investors lose confidence, according to Supachai.

However, countries in the Asia-Pacific are relatively well prepared to deal with the impacts of the ongoing trade war. The accumulation of capital reserves is quite high in this region, he said.

“Thailand maintains a healthy level of capital in its reserves, giving the government a lot of options to stimulate the economy should the impacts of the ongoing trade war hit us,” he said.

Labour force on the decline

Meanwhile, the Asian Development Outlook 2018 by the Asian Development Bank, launched yesterday, painted a positive picture for the region. It said that Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam would benefit from the trade war as they could produce and export goods similar to those made by China.

Supachai, however, warned that increasing the volume of trade alone would not help Thailand prepare for the impacts of the trade war.

“Those that benefit from trade are exporters, which are usually giant companies. Hence, there is a concentration of power in the market. These giant companies have a lot of negotiating power when it comes to wages. Meanwhile, the negotiating power of the labour force has continually decreased,” Supachai said.

This has created a critical disconnect between a falling unemployment rate and sluggish wage growth.

“We must also facilitate the growth of smaller exporters and support small and medium-sized enterprises in the country,” Supachai suggested.

“This will allow more income to come to the labour force and not only to the top 10 exporting companies.”

Another way Thailand could prepare for the impacts of the trade war was to adopt a comprehensive and strategic policy planning approach, according to Supachai.

“In Thailand, we are slow in adopting policies but we are on the right track. The government is focusing on improving infrastructure, connecting people and linking it to trade. This is seen in the government’s policy to develop the Eastern Economy Corridor and its plan to improve trade relations with Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam through investments in infrastructure,” he said.

Meanwhile, a citizen’s group is demanding a halt to the auction until proper negotiation takes place.

Representatives of the companies submitted their auction documents to the Department of Natural Fuels before the deadline, including their planned objectives, an investment budget, technical specifications, and benefits for the government in accordance with the terms of reference (TOR).

Chevron Thailand Holdings Ltd, in partnership with Mitsui Oil Exploration Co Ltd, and PTTEP Energy Development Co Ltd in partnership with M2 G2 (Thailand) Ltd handed in required documents yesterday for the G1/61 field. For the G2/61 field, Chevron Thailand Holdings Ltd, in partnership with Mitsui Oil Exploration Co Ltd, will be bidding against PTTEP Energy Development Co Ltd alone.

“Chevron is auctioning for both G1 and G2 fields because we believe in our capabilities in the region”, said Pairoj Kaweeyanun, president, Chevron Thailand.

“We believe our proposals are attractive for the government, and that through it, we have demonstrated our technological capabilities as well as expertise in the region,” he said.

Somporn Vongvuthipornchai, chief executive officer of PTTEP, said his company has submitted bid proposals for the two expiring concessions. PTTEP will bid solely on Bongkot, while for the Erawan gas block they will partner with Mubadala Petroleum (Thailand) Ltd, which also operates an oil and gas field in the Gulf of Thailand.

Continuity in Supply

“Our expertise and experiences in the exploration, development and production for 25 years in the Bongkot field have positioned us as a prudent and strong operator,” said Somporn. “We will ensure continuity in the natural gas supply with competitive costs, resulting in maximising benefits to the country and creating energy security in the long term.”

The Bongkot and Erawan gas fields are considered vital indigenous sources of Thailand’s energy supply, with a combined natural gas production accounting for 60 per cent of the country’s total output, he said.

The National Energy Policy Committee kicked off the auction for Erawan and Bongkot petroleum fields on the instructions of the Department of Mineral Fuels under the Ministry of Energy. With the current licences for the field due to expire in 2022 and 2023, the Ministry of Energy on April 24 invited interested parties to apply for the auction.

The Department of Mineral Fuels began on June 1 to accept auction entry forms from companies that satisfied its qualification evaluation, says Sarawut Kaewtathip, the department’s deputy director-general. The initial qualification evaluation for the field G1/61 gave the nod to Chevron Thailand Holdings Ltd, PTTEP Energy Development Co Ltd, Total E&P Thailand and MP G2 (Thailand) Ltd to proceed to the next stage. Meanwhile, bidding applications for the field G2/61 were opened to Chevron Thailand Holdings Ltd, PTTEP Energy Development Co Ltd and MP L21 (Thailand) Ltd.

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has made it publicly known that the government aims to increase its financial benefits from auctioning these two fields.

It takes five years to draft investment plans and to transfer equipment from the previous operator to the new operator, General Prayut noted yesterday after a Cabinet meeting at Government House.

The government is doing its best to understand the various issues surrounding the auction process, he said. It asks the public to carefully evaluate which of their demands are achievable and which are not, he added.

The most worrying issue is the reduction of gas and oil yields, which will impact the manufacturing industry. What the government has to do now is to try to increase public financial privileges while also maintaining oil prices at a level acceptable to the public. The latter was a key issue discussed during the Cabinet meeting, he says.

The Erawan and Bongkot petroleum fields make up 70 per cent of the country’s entire natural gas deposit, holding up to 278 oil rigs, says Siri Jirapongphan, minister of energy.

Meanwhile, representatives of the Citizen’s Protection of Thailand’s Energy Network yesterday converged on the Ministry of Energy to protest the auction for Erawan and Bongkot fields. They call for the ministry to delay the auction by three months in order to establish a board of committee to jointly investigate the matter. Protesters are insisting on standing their ground in front of the ministry until a “proper negotiation” takes place.

He added that of the total export value of US$42.7 billion in the first seven months of this year, $39.97 billion came under FTA agreements, with GSP agreements accounting for the balance of US$2.73 billion.

She said after meeting with French investors who visited the office and EEC yesterday, that most of them expressed an interested in investing in the aviation business in the EEC after hearing about the BOI incentive. Potential investments include an assembly plant, aviation maintenance repair and overhaul facility and related businesses.

He added that the state-enterprise investment budget and framework will cover 55 state enterprises under 16 ministries which had submitted their investment budget to the NESDB.

The framework consists of a proposed investment budget of Bt2.058 trillion and a disbursement limit for actual investment of Bt638.94 billion.

State-enterprises’ net operating profit is expected to rise by 18 per cent year-on-year to Bt117.11 billion with estimated revenue of Bt2.04 trillion and estimated expense of Bt1.93 trillion in the fiscal year 2019.

He added that an emergency fund could, in the event of a shock, maintain liquidity at a normal level for financial institutions.