The theme will be “Transforming the Asean Retail Landscape”.

More than 4,000 attendees from e-commerce, entertainment, healthcare, design and hospitality are expected.

The three-day event is co-organised by the Thai Retailers Association, Clarion Events and Impact Exhibition Management Co Ltd and is supported by the Thailand Convention and Exhibition Bureau.

TRA executive director Chartchai Tuongratanaphan said RetailEX defines “retail possibilities, expectations, behaviour and opportunities, which are evolving fast in the Asean community.

“Sharing our insights, knowledge and experience is absolutely essential, as is making those valuable connections and sourcing new products, services and even ideas. Retail beyond 2018 is uncharted territory and retailers and brands need to know how to navigate these newly emerging landscapes.”

Impact general manager Loy Joon How promised “the very best in cutting-edge retail technology innovation and solutions”.

“It’s a must-visit, go-to marketplace as well as an insightful, industry knowledge-sharing platform with keynote speakers, workshops and invaluable networking opportunities.”

Charkrit Direkwattanachai of the Marketing Association of Thailand said this was the first time his organisation had partnered RetailEX and would present a “Marketing in Retail” seminar.

“The objective is to provide latest marketing trends and updates to retail brands. The seminar will feature many topics from various perspectives. These include consumer insights, how brands can differentiate themselves at points of sale, utilising Big Data for marketing strategy, case studies on the omni channel, and how to integrate offline to online to revolutionise the retail industry.”

The forecast was made by the National Centre for Socio-economic Information and Forecast (NCIF) under the Ministry of Planning and Investment, which organised a seminar on Wednesday in Hanoi on the theme “Vietnam ’s economic prospects for the last six months of 2018 and the impact of US-China trade tensions”.

The seminar reviewed the country’s macroeconomic situation during the first six months of 2018 and discussed likely challenges in the second half as well as the impact of external factors, particularly US-China trade tensions, on Vietnam’s economy.

The NCIF expects the GDP growth rate in the third and fourth quarter to reach 6.72 per cent and 6.56 per cent, respectively.

Average annual inflation is forecast to be in the range of 4 to 4.2 per cent.

“In the second half of this year, Vietnam will still have to face many challenges, including pressure from the appreciation of the US dollar against other currencies after the US Federal Reserves raised interest rates on June 14 and signalled two more hikes to come later in 2018,” said Dang Duc Anh, head of NCIF’s Analysis and Forecast Division.

He said American trade protectionism and fluctuations in the prices of basic commodities and energy will affect Vietnam ’s economic growth as the pressure to stabilise exchange rates and inflation is increasing.

Thai exporters should be aware of potential consequences and mitigate the risks. For example, the US could put more scrutiny on Thai exporters (as well as other exporters in the region) – concerned that the goods from this region are actually China origin trying to circumvent the new duties.

Companies should be prepared for challenges to their exports, and have proof that they qualify as Thai origin. Rules of origin can be complicated, and just because the goods qualify for a Form D within Asean does not mean they are Thai in the eyes of US Customs. Understanding the rules and being prepared to defend the origin is a necessary step.

Before this latest turmoil, there had been many years of trade liberalisation of duty rates (but an increase in non-tariff barriers). There are growing numbers of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) as well as other forms of trade cooperation which provide preferential duty rates and reduce trade barriers among members. This means that the use of FTAs not only reduces the landed cost of your goods, but also makes them easier to import.

Thai businesses have benefitted from preferential duty benefits under both multilateral and bilateral agreements for decades. But there are inconsistencies in some of these regulations as some important technical details need further specific interpretation by the governing authorities of the FTA members.

If these principles aren’t clarified, Thai businesses might find themselves ineligible for the preferential duty rates even though their goods appear qualify based on the origin criteria alone. The additional written and unwritten rules are often overlooked.

A Back-to-Back Certificate of Origin (Back-to-Back CO) is one of the unclear principles. The Back-to-Back CO principle aims to facilitate easier logistics as an intermediate country can perform a distribution function by break-bulking a shipment into smaller partial shipments and issuing a Back-to-Back CO for preferential claims in the importing countries.

However, this process wasn’t universally accepted due to Thai Customs’ interpretation of each FTA member’s operational certification procedures for rules of origin.

Currently, only three Thailand-relevant FTAs explicitly allow partial export shipments from intermediate member states: the Asean Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA), the ASEAN–India Free Trade Agreement (AIFTA), and the Asean–Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership (AJCEP). Thai Customs might not allow partial shipments under other FTAs, invalidating any Back-to-Back CO or preferential FTA duty rates.

A different interpretation on the concept of third or fourth country invoicing could lead to controversy as to whether the FTA preferential rates can be used. ‘Third-country invoicing’ is when a trading entity who is an intermediary buys goods from an exporting entity and sells them to an importing entity but the goods are directly consigned from the exporting country to the importing country.

Big questions arise for transactions with more than one trading entity. For example, what happens if there are four or five parties in the transaction? ATIGA didn’t clarify this issue until 2012.

Thai Customs follows the 2012 ATIGA committee guidance and accepts the concept of having more than three entities in a transaction, but the documentary requirements can be complex and may involve sharing commercially confidential information.

The next difficult question is, what if there are three entities in the transaction and the trading is in the country of import? Would this transaction be deemed as third country invoicing?

This answer can be debated. You might take a conservative, strict view that the current regulations don’t have guidelines for this kind of transaction, so it shouldn’t be allowed. On the other hand, due to acceptance of a trading being in a third country, you might feel that having the trading located in an importing country should be allowed.

The process of having the principles agreed is not as simple as it sounds. Thai Customs has been trying very hard to push unanimous agreement through but it may take several months or more likely years.

In our experience, companies usually don’t know how much customs duty they pay. It’s very rare to know how much duty is saved through FTAs and other duty privileges. This makes it hard to determine the level of internal resources and external support necessary to protect the savings and avoid penalties, delays and reputational risks. Companies that don’t appropriately invest in this area are probably sitting on a lot more risk that they realise, and origin audits are becoming more common.

Contributed by TANARAT PERMPOONSAP, senior manager of Customs & International Trade, PwC Thailand

“In 2017, the gems and jewellery industry was ranked the third exporting industry in Thailand after automotive and computers and parts. During the first six months of 2018 (January to June 2018), exports of gems and jewellery (excluding unwrought gold) increased by 7.49 per cent compared to the same period in 2017. DITP is confident that the gems and jewellery industry will see robust growth in the future,” said DITP Director-General Chantira Jimreivat Vivatrat.

“Key factors for growth in this industry include the improving economies in export markets such as the US and Europe, while neighbouring countries have also been growing steadily in the last few years, adding to demand for more gems and jewelley products,” she said. The major markets are China and Hong Kong, USA, Europe and the Middle East.

Chantira said the gems and jewellery industry in Thailand is vital to the development of the country’s economy besides trade, tourism, employment, value-adding of products and services, and innovations.

DITP yesterday announced its readiness to host the 62nd edition of the Bangkok Gems & Jewellery Fair (BGJF) under the theme of “Heritage & Craftsmanship” to highlight Thailand’s cultural heritage and the internationally renowned, exquisite craftsmanship of Thai artisans. The 62nd BGJF is expected to welcome over 20,000 buyers and visitors from more than 130 countries across the globe.

Trendsetter

The 62nd Bangkok Gems & Jewellery Fair will take place from September 7 to 11, 2018 at Challenger Hall 1-3, IMPACT Muang Thong Thani. It will showcase Thailand as a trendsetter in the world’s gems and jewelry industry.

The fair is an important marketing channel to promote the industry’s capabilities and support Thai manufacturers, including SMEs, to expand their businesses abroad while networking and trading with partners from Thailand and other countries. Moreover, new brands and designers will receive an opportunity to present their unique creations to target buyers from around the world. It will highlight Thailand’s cultural heritage that perfectly combines beautiful Thai designs with international touches.

As a special to this year’s fair, experienced artisans from the Thai Goldsmith Association will be demonstrating their skills in crafting jewellery that is rare to find elsewhere, such as jewellery moulding, invisible setting, jewellery carvings, and stone polishing. Moreover, educational seminars and one-on-one consulting services from experts will be offered as well as a mobile gems analysing unit.

DITP is determined to continuously support, promote, and develop the gems and jewelry industry in Thailand. Throughout this year, DITP is holding in-depth seminars and workshops to encourage Thai entrepreneurs to expand overseas. Moreover, DITP carries out strategies to promote the image of Thai gems and jewellery products overseas in order to add value to this industry and propel Thailand to become the world’s next jewellery trading hub.

“The 62nd Bangkok Gems & Jewelry Fair offers an opportunity for participants to meet manufacturers, distributors and over 900 leading exporters from Thailand and other countries.

It will exhibit all categories of products in the gems and jewelry industry in over 2,200 booths, featuring products from Hong Kong, Turkey, Singapore, Poland, India, and Asean countries.

DITP expects the fair to generate over Bt2.2 billion in sales this year, with international buyers and visitors from 130 countries. Moreover, the BGJF is different from other gems and jewellery fairs and many exhibitors have expressed their interest in joining the show,” said Chantira.

The environmentally friendly tourism initiatives in Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat are also aimed at boosting the number of visitors from across the Malaysian border and farther afield, he said.

Nalikatibhag was speaking after the signing of a memorandum of understanding that covers the Tourism and Sports Ministry, the Southern Border Provinces Administrative Centre, the Thai Research Fund, the Thai Health Promotion Foundation, Yala, Pattani, Narathiwat, and Songkhla Rajabhat University.

The signing of the document paves the way for the creation of community-based tourism (CBT) in the three provinces. Under the programme, a tourist management system will be provided along with help for how to devise tourism packages for domestic and foreign visitors as part of efforts to boost people’s incomes in the targeted communities and contribute to peace-building in southern Thailand. “The main idea is to do what is needed to create a more peaceful environment in the south of Thailand and also improve the quality of life of the people,” Nalikatibhag said.

Currently, Yala, Pattani and Narathiwas have a combined 32 communities that are being developed as CBT tourist destinations, with six of them already established as pilot projects that will also serve as prototype communities for a further 26 communities to be incorporated into the broader goals of the plan. Participants in the programme will learn how to develop local attractions as CBT destinations. The DASTA will invite representatives of the 32 communities to participate in a tourism trade exhibition, the Matta Fair 2019 in Kuala Lumpur, in March next year.

“We also are negotiating with 14 local CBT tourism firms to join in with the programme and this will help the communities to create their own tourism package to serve the demands of tourists.

This is a way that we can boost the number of tourists and also create peace for this region,” Nalikatibhag said.

He said that the 32 communities comprise 8,500 families with a total of 35,000 people. The programme will help them to improve their livelihoods and will serve as an example for other communities to benefit from CBT tourism.

At the end of year 2016, the combined number of tourists visiting Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat was 1,528,042. Up to 58 per cent of them – or 897,835 – were foreigners, with the remainder from Thailand.

Deputy Prime Minister Chatchai Sarikulya said after ceremony for the signing of the MOU that the initiative formed part of efforts to promote tourism businesses and to contribute towards peace in the region, which has suffered from a long-running insurgency.

It also fits in with the government’s strategy to develop the “Southern Economic Triangle” into stable, prosperous and economically sustainable provinces by 2020, he said.

Under the Southern Economic Triangle strategy, the Cabinet in 2016 approved Bt5 billion to be spent on 63 infrastructure projects in the three provinces from 2017 to 2020. Some Bt300 million has been invested in 17 of the projects this year, with spending to continue over the next two years. State agencies are also planning investments in the three provinces.

Among the big projects, the Airports of Thailand Plc plans to invest Bt1.03 billion to develop Yala Airport and Narathiwat International Airport by 2020, and the Marine Department of the Transport Ministry plans to spend Bt116 million to develop Pattani Port into a commercial port serving cargo ships of up to 5,000 tonnes gross weight in 2020.

The strategy is aimed at increasing prosperity in the three southernmost provinces by making them more politically and economically stable. One city in each province will be developed as a model city, setting an example for other cities in the region.

Nalikatibhag said that, under the Southern Economic Triangle strategy, Nongjik district in Pattani has been selected to serve as an agricultural city role model for the development of agricultural industries and bio-diesel. Similarly, Betong district in Yala will become a model natural tourism city. Sungai Kolok district in Narathiwat is to serve as an example of an international trade hub in southern Thailand by developing a distribution centre and a logistics system to link the district to neighbouring Malaysia and Singapore.

Predee Daochai, chairman of the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB), said the committee has been closely watching developments in the trade conflict and other potential issues in the global economy. The trade tensions have so far had only a limited impact on the world economy and in Thailand, Predee said

If the US sets out a new list of targets – both in terms of the particular Chinese goods and the tariff rates – for possible retaliation, Thai exports could come under pressure and regional currencies may depreciate amid a period of volatility that would likely follow a weakening in the Chinese yuan, he said.

Damaging floods in the West and the Northeast are also being monitored. However, they may not give rise to the severe impacts that were seen in 2011 when floods devastated the Central and Northern regions – home to most of the country’s industrial estates.

The economy has been driven mainly by exports and tourism, with expansion of private consumption and investment, Predee said. The country’s farm incomes have turned positive and this trend has helped to sustain purchasing power at the grassroots level.

The JSCCIB is maintaining its forecast for growth in the economy this year in the range of 4.3-4.8 per cent, with expansion in exports of 7-10 per cent. Inflation is projected at 0.9-1.5 per cent.

Exports are estimated to grow 5.5 per cent to US$129.99 billion in the latter half of this year; this would be lower than the 12 per cent growth posted for the second half of 2017.

For the whole year, the value of shipments is expected to grow 8.1 per cent to $255.8 billion, said Aat Pisanwanish, director of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC)’s Centre for International Trade Studies.

The UTCC centre forecasts economic growth in the range of 4-6.9 per cent this year, with exports expanding 7.3-8.9 per cent.

Aat cited the growing global economy and the likely depreciation in the baht against the US dollar for the projected rise in exports. The baht is estimated to average 34 to the US dollar this year.

However, risks are present with the trade war and the likely depreciation in other currencies against the US dollar, as well as the projected increases in global crude prices that could affect production costs, and falling prices of agricultural products.

“In the latter half of the year, crude prices are expected to rise as a consequence of the US sanctions imposed on Iran,” Aat said.

“If the situation escalates, crude prices are expected to increase to US$80-$90 per barrel. We’ve also monitoring the US-China trade war and a retaliatory plan to raise tariffs on US automobiles.”