“We expect the trade dispute between the US and China and other countries to be prolonged, with further trade measures being put in place over the rest of 2018,” said Elena Duggar, chair of Moody’s Macroeconomic Board and co-author of the report “Cross-Sector: Global Trade Monitor”.

“We think the trade dispute will stop short of full implementation of the most severe potential measures announced so far, including tariffs on all US automotive imports or a breakdown of NAFTA.”

In Moody’s view, the trade dispute will have a manageable aggregate impact on global growth and inflation.

However, if there is a large reaction in the financial markets or if confidence is undermined, the dispute has the potential to derail the global economy.

The trade restrictions are expected to cut about 0.25 percentage points off US real GDP growth in 2019, offsetting some of the economy’s underlying strong momentum and fiscal stimulus gains.

Trade restrictions will contribute to a slowdown in China’s growth, cutting real GDP growth by around 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points in 2019.

Moody’s assumes that these effects will be largely offset by moderate fiscal and policy easing.

Its latest findings revealed that as many as four in five (79 per cent) Thai consumers living in the cities would like to have a healthier diet, just over three in four (76 per cent) would like to have a better work-life balance while 73 per cent to exercise more.

The survey was carried out in May this year among 1,500 internet users, aged 16 and over, living in the metropolitan areas of Thailand.

Almost half (48 per cent) of metro Thai consumers plan to adjust their diets over the next 12 months for their personal health and wellness.

Of these consumers, the majority (90 per cent) plan to eat more fruits or vegetables, over half (53 per cent) are looking to reduce their meat intake and 45 per cent to follow a plant-based, vegetarian or vegan diet.

Rising income

“Amidst rising income and rapid urbanisation, consumers in Thailand are embracing the benefits of personal wellness, and, as a result, are increasing their efforts towards self-betterment—be it physically, mentally or emotionally. Thai consumers are not only cutting back on their bad habits, but also paying more attention to what they consume.

Our research indicates that customisation can be a key player in consumers’ pursuit of bringing positivity into their daily lives. As well, instances of customisation can be introduced in everyday products,” said Delon Wang, trends manager, Asia Pacific, at Mintel.

Customisation

Indeed, two in five (41 per cent) metro Thais think that brands which offer them the choice to personalise or customise their purchase provide the sense of a premium service.

Additionally, the majority of metro Thais prefer the option of being able to personalise or customise in the food (67 per cent) and health and fitness (63 per cent) categories, respectively. When it comes to grooming, over half like the option of personalising or customising in the household and personal care (51 per cent) as well as the beauty and personal care categories (51 per cent), respectively.

When it comes to everyday purchases, high quality (63 per cent) is the top influencer, followed by convenience (48 per cent), price (38 per cent), durability (37 per cent), and customisation (29 per cent).

Choices via technology

Meanwhile, it seems that the advancement in technology is shaping how Thais are consuming information and being influenced. Mintel research shows that over three in five (63 per cent) metro Thais are getting their nutritional or dietary information from online searches and over half (54 per cent) via social media or blogs. Furthermore, three in five (59 per cent) say that they are getting their beauty information from social media or blogs, while 56 per cent through online searches.

“With so many choices in the market, consumers may start skewing toward brands that help guide them in their purchase decisions and aid in their journey of self-betterment. “To stand out against the crowd, brands should consider offering advice to help inform these decisions.

“As reflected in our research, brands can leverage digital channels to ensure they are at the top of mind among Thai consumers, especially in this day and age where more and more consumers are moving online.

“Moreover, body trackers, wearables as well as consumer data will play a large role in the future, aiding customisation and guiding consumers with their choices. We can expect to see integrated features added to surroundings, helping consumers to better understand themselves and how their surroundings can affect them.

These present opportunities for brands and companies to reach out and target consumer movements based on lifestyle changes, and in this case, their pursuit of achieving their personal health goals. This aligns with Mintel Trend ‘Data Creators’ which discusses how consumers are creating data through their actions, movements and behaviours—all of which leave a trail and tell a story. Technology allows people to listen to this data, learn from it and react,” continued Wang.

In fact, Mintel research finds that 39 per cent of metro Thai consumers currently own or have the intention of owning smart technology in their homes.

Keeping things natural

Overall, Thai consumers are undoubtedly on the right track to living healthier lifestyles, but what exactly does a healthy meal mean to them today? Mintel research highlights that two-thirds (67 per cent) of metro Thai consumers describe ‘healthy food’ as all natural ingredients, 61 per cent as low-fat, 56 per cent organic, 55 per cent low in calorie, and 54 per cent describe ‘healthy food’ as being low in sugar.

What’s more, more than half (53 per cent) of metro Thais are avoiding saturated fats, while 43 per cent are avoiding refined sugar and a third are avoiding salt (33 per cent) and red meat (33 per cent), respectively.

At the same time, it appears that companies in both the food and drink and beauty and personal care industries are aware of consumers’ preference for all things natural.

According to Mintel Global New Products Database (GNPD), 41 per cent of food, drink, beauty and personal care products launched in Thailand in 2017 featured a ‘natural’ claim, up from 34 per cent in 2010.

Plant-based offerings

Finally, Thai consumers are gradually warming up to the idea of plant-based food and drink offerings, finding them just as nutritious and tasty as meat-based options.

As many as three in four (76 per cent) metro Thai consumers agree that plant protein (such as legumes and nuts) is just as nutritious as animal protein (such as meat and eggs), while more than half (55 per cent) agree that plant protein tastes better than animal protein.

“To appeal to Thai consumers who are starting to adopt better lifestyle habits, more companies should offer food, drink, beauty and personal care products that are made with natural formulations, seeing the high demand in the market.

In addition, consumers preference for natural, simple and flexible diets will drive further expansion of plant-based alternatives, especially as they are finding them just as nutritious and tasty as animal-based food and drink products,” concluded Jane Barnett, head of insights, South APAC, Mintel.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Monday launched the Indo-Pacific Business Forum in Washington DC as the economic pillar for his country’s Indo-Pacific Strategy.

To implement the new strategy launched by the Trump administration, the forum will serve as an instrument to expand the US’s economic role in the region, said Brian Hook, senior policy adviser to the secretary of state.

Pompeo left Washington for an Asean ministerial meeting in Singapore after the forum.

“Because our allies and our partners are essential to our goals in the Indo-Pacific, we want to expand economic investment and development,” Hook said in a phone conference with journalists from across Asia and the Pacific.

Officials from Japan, Australia, Singapore, India and Indonesia spoke at the forum, together with members of the American business community.

During the forum, Pompeo and other officials announced new US government initiatives and funding primarily focused on the digital economy, energy and infrastructure.

These sectors are foundations of the Indo-Pacific‘s economic future and the initiatives and funding are designed to accelerate US private-sector investment in the region, support more job-creating US export opportunities, and also to meet the region’s needs for economic growth and development, Hook said, while declining to give details of the funds.

Pompeo will also announce funding to support Asean through US-Asean Connect, the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) forum and the Lower Mekong Initiative, as well as announcing a first-ever US contribution to the Indian Ocean Rim Association, the senior policy adviser explained.

Asked if the Indo-Pacific Business Forum was responding to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Hook said: “We have a vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific. It doesn’t exclude any nation. We welcome contributions by China to regional development; we just want them to adhere to high standards and to uphold areas such as transparency and rule of law and sustainable financing.

“So I would not say that this is meant to, it’s not a strategy to counter ‘One Belt, One Road’. The Belt and Road is, for the moment, China’s way of doing things. It is a made-in-China, made-for-China initiative.”

As to the role of India in the US strategy, he said the country remained a key partner in efforts to ensure that the entire Indo-Pacific region was a region of peace, stability and growing prosperity.

“We work very closely with India … and so the US and India are working bilaterally, and we also do that in cooperation with other like-minded partners, especially Japan and Australia, Korea, to advance our shared vision of the Indo-Pacific,” Hook added.

However, the Centre believes that the Fed will increase its policy rate over the rest of this year.

Director-general Chantira Jimreivat Vivatrat said on Monday the overseas market for halal food was valued at US$5.63 billion at the end of 2017, up 11.73 per cent from 2016.

The market’s continuing strong growth offers potential for Thai food producers to export their goods, she said.

Than Lwin, a senior consultant at KBZ Bank Ltd and former deputy governor of the Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM) stressed the importance of addressing four key challenges – religious conflicts in Rakhine State, revenue mobilisation, lack of investor-friendly laws and the undeveloped banking industry.

“The biggest challenge Myanmar is facing today is the Rakhine crisis, for which some foreign investors from western countries tend to adopt a wait and see attitude and a drop in visitor arrivals is obvious,” he told a seminar on Myanmar’s industrial collaboration opportunities last week.

“Revenue mobilisation tends to decline due to much needed tax incentives to revive stagnation in the economy. The much debated Tax Amnesty law is still pending.”

According to the banker, Myanmar’s investor-friendly laws remain inadequate, particularly laws related to intellectual property that are still waiting for the Parliament’s approval after years of debate and revisions. Local banks are still unable to leapfrog, though the new regulations imposed by CBM are destined to reach international standards and best practices.

He said Myanmar’s industrial sector is constrained by availability of capital, capacity and technology.

“Industries in Myanmar are generally described as ageing and inefficient because most of them still use out of date technology, although some modernised plants came into operations with foreign assistance,” he said.

“Myanmar’s industries are still in an infant stage of development, which itself will provide extensive opportunities for foreign investors.”

He said Myanmar workers usually possess high IQ levels, which helps reduce training time to transform them into a skilled workforce. He cited positive examples in the garment sector.

Than Lwin believes Myanmar offers an excellent ground for foreign investments in agro-based industries, as it was once hailed as a granary of Asia and the world’s largest rice exporter.

Given a huge potential of mineral resources, most of which are still untapped, Myanmar is in a better position to establish resource based industries, he said. The banker urged that a modern industrial base be established using the latest state of the art technology.

Industrial reforms in Germany in the 1990s and the growth of Taiwan’s SMEs sector in the 1950s and 1960s with support of the World Bank set good examples for Myanmar, he said.

“In a survey conducted by West Germany in the process of German unification in 1990, 90 per cent of East German industries were using out of date technology and were later scrapped. So Germans began to build state of the art industries and in 10 years, the eastern part of Germany became the most modernised industrial area in Europe. Today, though President Trump sets measures for tariff protection, German industrial goods are still competitive and in high demand in the United States,” he said.

Remains upbeat

The banker is confident that Myanmar will manage to revive the development of small and medium enterprises with assistance from Asian investors. Myanmar’s SMEs at this juncture are still small in size and scope – barely numbering 100,000 compared to nearly 2.7 million SMEs in Thailand.

Despite the decline in the revenue of Myanmar’s services sector and the slowdown in FDI inflows driven by the Rakhine crisis, Than Lwin expects the fallout to be short-lived. He hopes for investors satisfaction over adequate incentives provided through the new Foreign Investment Law, the new company law taking effect from August 1, and the new Condominium Law providing ownership rights to foreigners.

“Despite the handicaps, banks in Myanmar are transforming rapidly, adding far-reaching products for their expanding customers. As the smartphone penetration rate is fast approaching about 90 per cent of the population, Myanmar banks now try to take advantage by adding more fintech products, and are moving towards agent banking on a wider basis to reach mass market,” he said.

He believes Myanmar’s financial sector is moving towards a sound and efficient financial system to ensure inclusive growth across the nation.

“Currently, the Myanmar economy performs better, although growth was uneven in recent years,” Than Lwin said, citing figures released by development lenders.

Since fiscal year 2013-14, Myanmar has managed to sustain strong economic growth with gross domestic product growing on average at 7 per cent per annum over the past five years – except for FY2015-16 when growth subsided to 5.9 per cent due to policy uncertainty with the change of government.

On the fiscal front, implementing the new Myanmar Sustainable Development Plan has been fairly successful in breaking the circle of low revenue and low public spending in the past.

“With a latecomer advantage, Myanmar has the opportunity to learn from the experiences and mistakes of other countries with a view to leapfrog the economy,” Than Lwin concluded.

Moody’s conclusions are contained in its just-released credit analysis titled “Government of Thailand — Baa1

stable”, which examines four categories: economic strength, which Moody’s assesses as “high (-)”; institutional strength “high (-)”; fiscal strength “very high”; and susceptibility to event risk “moderate”.

The report constitutes an annual update to investors and is not a rating action.

The system, which would allow people from either country to rapidly send funds to one another, is aimed at those who travel often for business or tourism.

An announcement from the National Bank of Cambodia (NBC) said it would let users bypass the need to use costly exchanges to turn Cambodian riel into Thai baht, or vice versa.

The systems will also allow Cambodian workers in Thailand to transfer money to their families at home.

The NBC’s director-general of central banking, Chea Serey, said the initiative will receive support from financial institutions in both countries and that leaders would meet up later this year to define rules and procedures.

She said the system was set to go public next year.

“This is another effort to promote the use of riel. [It] will allow Cambodians to use their own currency abroad and will prove to the public that it is internationally recognised,” she said.

The system will only work for users whose bank accounts utilise Cambodian riel, and aims to be a catalyst to boost riel usage.

Cambodian imports accounted for $15.5 billion in total last year, in which the imports from Thailand was 16.5 per cent of total imports. It is second only to China, whose products account for 41.7 per cent of imports to the country.

In September of last year, the NBC signed an agreement with the People’s Bank of China in Guangxi to set up an official yuan-riel exchange rate, allowing businesses to conduct settlements without having to use the US dollar.