The economist endorses a move that will see fresh studies conducted into patterns of expenditure in household consumption starting from 2010. He hailed the Central Statistical Organisation’s efforts to undertake such an update with the support of World Bank, which, with the International Monetary Fund, has maintained its positive outlook for the national economy.

“I believe the study will provide useful information on the state of life and labour for the common folk in our country,” U Myint said.

He said that average incomes of families in many parts of Myanmar were inadequate to meet household consumption expenditure. Estimated monthly incomes of average households were insufficient to cover consumption costs in all the states and regions except Yangon and Ayeyarwady.

He referred to a previous study that showed spending on food was very high in Yangon, the nation’s commercial hub, accounting for 68 per cent of total household consumption. He said it seemed to be among the highest in Asia, taking into account a very low level of income for the nation.

“With rising incomes, the share of food declines while there is a corresponding increase in the share of other items such as housing, consumer durables, transport, education, health, recreation, and family welfare services,” he said.

He also pointed out that there had been a rise in the share of charity and ceremonials (C&C), which has become a major item of expenditure since 2001. Spending on C&C was higher than what the typical household spent on renting a home, home improvements, education, clothes, and health.

He sees families doing meritorious deeds and playing an active role in ceremonies – including celebrations, conventions, festivals, musical events and rituals – as major reasons for the rise in C&C expenditures.

In its latest Myanmar Economic Monitor launched last week, World Bank projected Myanmar’s economic growth would increase to 6.7 per cent next year. Yet, the economist warned that the authorities should not become “too happy” with a narrow focus on gross domestic product (GDP) growth alone.

“In Myanmar, like in most countries, a lot of attention is devoted to GDP and its components in reporting about economic conditions in the country and plans for the future. There is a tendency to think the higher the growth rate, the better [the economy]. Whether this is really true has been debated for a long time,” he said.

“Too much pre-occupation with GDP is not good.”

He urged that the government should focus on the distribution of income that accompanies growth in GDP.

“In addition to looking at GDP, which deals with production and output aspects of an economy, it will be instructive to pay some attention to the consumption and expenditure aspects to get a better idea of our people’s economic situation,” he said.

He also warned of the impact of a brain drain, and urged the authorities to encourage Myanmar people living abroad to return to their homeland. In 2016, the International Organisation for Migration estimated that 4.25 million Myanmar nationals are living abroad. A large number of them work in Thailand and Malaysia, driven by the need to earn more for their families.

According to the economist, the major reasons for migration are higher wages in neighbouring countries, conflicts, and environmental migration caused by natural disasters.

“Children of the cream of Myanmar society in government, business, defence, academics and the professions are mostly all residing abroad either studying to acquire skills or settling down and working abroad,” he said.

Yet, he believes Myanmar now has a better political landscape.

“Now our situation is different. I believe we have made some progress with regard to freedom of legitimate thought, word, action and expression. Such progress should be maintained and strengthened,” he said.

The optimism is shared at research units across state and private organisations and is also based on the strong demand for Thai products and the rising prices in oil-related commodities. The low end of the forecasts is for an increase in the value of shipments of 7.5 per cent.

TMB Analytics’ growth forecast sits at the high end of the range, at 8.6 per cent citing the higher prices for agricultural products and oil-related products and the sustained expansion in the economies of Thailand’s trading partners.

Given the higher global demand for products in light of the world’s impressive economic growth in 2018, Siam Commercial Bank’s Economic Intelligence Centre (EIC) forecasts exports to expand 7.5 per cent this year. It also pointed to the higher prices of oil-related products as a result of expected continued rises in crude prices,

Kasikorn Research Centre is looking at export expansion of 8 per cent this year, highlighting the growth in global trade.

On Monday, the National Economic and Social Development Board forecast an 8.9 per cent in exports for 2018, drawing encouragement from the economic growth of 4.8 per cent recorded for the first quarter from the year-earlier period – the highest mark in five years.

However, the Ministry of Commerce is sticking with its estimate of 8 per cent growth in exports.

The value of shipments jumped 12.3 per cent year on year in April – extending a winning streak to 14 months – to US$18.95 billion.

The performance was led by oil-related products such as finished oil, chemicals and plastic products. For the month, imports advanced 20.4 per cent year on year to US$20.23 billion. As a result, Thailand’s trade was in a deficit of $1.28 billion.

In the first four months of this year, exports climbed 11.5 per cent year on year to $81.77 billion, at a monthly average of $20.44 billion.

The result reflected the higher product prices following the rises in crude prices and the global economic expansion. The four-month imports tally jumped 17.2 per cent to $81.10 billion. The country incurred a trade surplus of $673 million.

TMB Analytics forecasts that while exports will continue to rise, they will do so at a slower rate for the remaining eight months of this year – due to the statistical effect of high base of comparison

Based on a study by the research house, every 1 per cent change in crude price will prompt changes in the prices of exported agricultural products and oil-related commodities in the same direction by 0.11 per cent.

TMB Analytics expects the global crude price to increase 30 per cent year on year to US$71 per barrel for the rest of this year. The EIC predicts the Brent crude oil price will rise 28 per cent year on year to US$70 per barrel in 2018.

As a result, prices of exported agricultural products, rubber, chemical products, finished oil and steel – accounting for a quarter of Thai exports – will likely rise, TMB Analytics said.

Exports could improve in light of the estimated expansion in the global economy and import, led by the United States, the euro-zone countries, the Asean-5 states and CLMV countries (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam), the research house said.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global economy is forecast to grow 3.9 per cent this year compared with last year’s 3.7 per cent, while global imports are estimated to rise 5.7 per cent compared with the 5.5 per cent growth last year.

However, risks remain to exports in the form of US-China trade conflicts and the baht’s strength.

Even though a trade war between the top two economies would have a relatively short-term impact on Thai trade, this warranted monitoring for its impact in the medium to long term, TMB Analytics said.

The Thai currency’s appreciation would likely continue, it said. The baht is predicted to appreciate by 3.5 per cent from the current level to 31 to the US dollar by the end of the year. The increase would factor in the improved Thai economic fundamentals on the back of income from exports and tourism as well as foreign direct investment.

The EIC forecasts imports will increase 12.2 per cent this year, due to the expected higher demand for raw materials and capital goods. Such demand would be in line with the expected recovery in public and private investment and likely higher fuel prices.

Coinciding with the announcement of the course, they called on the Revenue Department to scrap the high tax rates imposed on digital assets.

The partners said at a press conference yesterday that the first course would start on June 12 and end on August 14, priced at Bt185,000.

The course is designed to match the needs of chief executive officers of listed firms, investors, business owners and professionals from the financial sector and government officials, said Karndee Leopairote, chief executive and co-founder of ICORA.

The announcement of the course comes against the backdrop of the Revenue Department having imposed a high tax rate on digital assets, in a move that has disappointed the market. At the same time, the Securities and Exchange Commission has started to hold a public hearing into proposed regulations for the emerging industry.

Karndee said that the course will enable participants to gain an understanding of the major financial and technological changes sweeping markets, including cryptocurrencies and related initial coin offerings (ICOs), as well as the blockchain technology that underpins theses assets.

Experts who have contributed to the course include Santitam Sathirathai, an adviser to ICORA; Bhume Bhumiratana, an adviser to the SEC; and Sakolkorn Sakavee, CEO of Blockchain Capital Group, Karndee said.

Korn Chatikavanij, chairman of the Thai Fintech Association, expressed his concerns about the new tax imposed on digital assets, saying that taxation would drive business away and limit the potential of Thai startups.Korn, who was is a former finance minister, was referring to the income tax imposed on funds raised through ICOs along with other transactions involving digital assets.

Under the new law, firms that issue ICOs have to book their fund raising as revenue and this make the funds subject to corporate income tax of 20 per cent. Transactions related to ICO sand other digital asset have been made subject to capital gain tax of 15 per cent. Moreover, the trading in digital assets – including cryptocurrency and crypto tokens – outside authorised exchanges would be subject to value-added tax of 7 per cent.

“These tax measures will drive businesses to other countries, such as Singapore, and the Revenue Department would get nothing,” said Korn.

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Government officials had said that they wanted to protect the interests of retail investors and chose tax and other regulatory means to safeguard them against the high risks involved, including fraud.

However, Korn said that the government should not use tax measures. Instead, it should ask the SEC to lay down effective regulations against investors taking on excessive risk and to counter the risk of financial fraud.

He said the government has time to adjust the policy as many countries also have little idea what to do with the emergence of digital assets driven by the digital revolution.

Nintita Loetruangsuphakun, chief strategy officer of ICORA, shares this view. Nintita noted that, aside from Singapore and Japan, Malaysia under Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad will aggressively pursue favourable policies on digital assets and this could draw business away from Thailand.

Prinn Panitchpakdi, managing director of CLSA Securities Thailand, said he hoped that the SEC would talk with the Revenue Department about the issue of tax policy.

Subcon Thailand 2018, held from on May 16-19, has succeeded in match-making 7,211 firms with total market value of Bt12.7 billion – higher than the pre-event estimate of 6,500 firms worth about Bt12 billion, said Krongkanoke Managitjonggol, The Board of Investment’s executive director of Industrial Linkage Development.

Companies in auto appliance, electronic appliance, and machine sectors top the list. She added.

The programme is part of Alibaba Group’s commitment to Thailand under the scope of four memorandums of understanding signed in April between the China-based giant and various units of the Thai government to drive development in e-commerce, digital logistics, tourism, and the entrepreneurial talent pool.

Under the programme, Alibaba Business School together with IPD and ITPD will host a broad spectrum of online and offline training sessions that serve the needs of different target audiences.

In addition to e-commerce and entrepreneurship topics for start-ups, retailers, exporters and agricultural industry practitioners, the programme will also present government officials with an opportunity to discover how technology can help create a better and smarter society, while college students can sign up for courses that delve into the core skills required for success in the digital-economy era.

“SMEs [small and medium-sized enterprises] in Thailand are currently facing both opportunities and threats from technological disruption, and success depends on their ability to adapt,” Deputy Industry Minister Somchai Harnhirun said on Tuesday.

“By empowering entrepreneurs with a greater understanding of the digital business landscape, we can drive growth not only for the SMEs themselves, but also the nation’s economy as a whole. Alibaba’s commitment to share its experience and expertise in these areas will give Thai SMEs a newfound capability to compete on a global level, and this training programme is another important step forward in our mission to drive Thailand’s economic value to new heights,” he said.

James Xu, deputy chief representative of Thailand, Alibaba Group, added: “We are delighted with the opportunity to continue our mission to equip stakeholders in Thailand with a deeper, more thorough understanding of the e-commerce landscape and its impact on how business is done today.

“From opening up opportunities to enter the China market to helping the younger generation become future-ready, we are confident that our joint training initiatives with the IPD and ITPD will be conducive to the development of Thailand’s digital economy under the Thailand 4.0 policy.”

The kick-off of the training programme was marked by a special lecture session on May 18 offered by Alibaba Business School and delivered by Yang Wenya, certified lecturer at Alibaba’s Taobao University, to around 500 members of the Thai SME community.

It formed part of the “SME Transform” event at Challenger Hall 2, IMPACT Muang Thong Thani, jointly hosted by the IPD – part of the Industry Ministry – the Office of SME Promotion, and the SME Development Bank.

The ITPD is part of the Commerce Ministry.

To keep the Thai economy and businesses competitive in a globalised digital and financial world, Thai investors, business owners and professionals from financial institutions have a chance via the new course to learn important and useful knowledge from national and international experts who have first-hand experience in the new crypto economy.

The first CAR course will take place from June 12 to August 14.

An introductory press conference about the innovative training course will be held on May 22 at The Campus, classroom 2, of the Grand Hyatt Erawan hotel in Bangkok.

Korn Chatikavanij, chairman of the Thai Fintech Association, said on Tuesday: “The Crypto Asset Revolution course is the first programme in Thailand that has a complete curriculum about the global crypto economy. Our experienced national and international experts will share their knowledge about both investing in digital currencies and fund-raising.”

“The course will integrate both intensive theoretical and practical situations to prepare participants to understand and analyse market trends, help with business planning, recognise opportunities and threats and how to deal with potential critical market situations. The content and objectives of the CAR course are of great importance to both the public and the private sectors to understand and get ready for present and future global digital economic systems,” he added.

Karndee Leopairote, chief executive officer and co-founder of ICORA, said: “The different professional backgrounds of the participants of the CAR course is a very important success factor of the programme. With investors, business owners, professionals from the finance sector and government officials, the participants can not only share experiences and ideas, but can also influence and keep the country up to date with the new trends in digital economic systems.”

Nintita Loetruangsuphakun, chief strategy officer of ICORA and CAR course director, said the 11-week course was divided into five main topics: introduction to crypto currencies and ICOs; blockchain technology and crypto currency; initial coin offering; ICO growth-hacking day; and group work for ICO growth hacking.

SINCE THE May 2014 coup d’etat, the Prayut government has been running the Thai economy with a tight grip facilitated by special powers under Article 44 of the charter.

For the past four years, the results have been generally mixed with the majority of Thai people’s economic wellbeing remaining stagnant or worse.

Over these years, multiple polls have often suggested that the government’s economic management was not delivering results, especially among medium- to low-income groups.

On the other hand, the rich appeared to be getting richer as the country’s economic growth since 2014 has averaged nearly 4 percentage points per annum, but the wealth is not being evenly distributed.

Big business, export-oriented industries, tourism and related businesses were among the major beneficiaries of economic expansion during this period.

Farmers, in contrast, have been hurt by the relatively low market prices of agricultural and other commodities in the past several years, leaving most unimpressed by the government’s economic performance.

Other low-income wage earners have seen minimal tangible benefits, as the country’s official minimum wage has increased just slightly from Bt300 per day to Bt305-322 over those years.

Yet the latest 2018 Forbes list of Thai billionaires paints a sharp contrast as the country’s richest businesspeople enjoy a disproportionate wealth boom, driven by a stock market upturn and a stronger Thai baht.

Many of these billionaires have been closely allied with the government’s Pracha Rath projects, which use partnerships between the public and private sectors as a state mechanism to tackle economic inequality and related issues.

The Forbes list of the 50 richest Thai billionaires shows their combined wealth rose nearly one-third over the past year to a total of more than US$162 billion (Bt5.2 trillion).

Dhanin Chearavanont and other key members of his family have remained the country’s richest people on the Forbes list, with a combined wealth of US$30 billion due to high share prices for their major holdings in 7-Eleven, agro-industrial and other businesses.

Dhanin’s CP Group is among several Thai conglomerates involved in the Pracha Rath projects, which aim to help community-based enterprises in various provinces to grow their businesses as a means to narrow the economic gap and tackle rural poverty.

Other Thai billionaires such as Charern Siriwatanapakdi of Thai Beverage Group, the Chirathivat family of Central Group, and the Chokewatana family of Saha Group have also been closely associated with the Pracha Rath schemes.

While Pracha Rath and other projects of the Prayut government are arguably sustainable in terms of alleviating rural poverty, they have been less popular among farmers and other low-income people when compared to the previous government’s campaigns.

The previous government’s massive rice-pledging scheme cost an estimated Bt500 billion in taxpayers’ money but its benefits were only short term while its corruption was widespread.

To deliver better longer-term results, policymakers need to come up with more creative programmes to tackle poverty, which are also not politically addictive and whose cost-benefit ratio is more reasonable.

According to the latest Nida Poll conducted in February this year, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha unsurprisingly got high scores for his decisiveness in restoring law and order over the past years.

However, his government’s economic management remained a bone of contention as most respondents said the economy had not been good for them largely due to the uneven distribution of wealth over recent years.

The same opinion was shared by respondents to another survey conducted by Bangkok Poll earlier this year – they also urged the government to further improve its economic management.

Despite unfavourable world market prices for farm and other commodities that are out of government control, as well as other negative factors, the government still owes the public a better performance on the economic front.

The Ministry of Transport said it was now aiming to finish the study in July, with the announcement following discussions yesterday with representatives of the Thai Bus Operators Association and The Transport Co Ltd.

The operators say they have been hit by high costs since last year, since the steady rise in oil rises, but fares have been capped.

Transport Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith said: “The Ministry of Transport understands the problem and will rush to finalise the review of the bus fare structure, which should be in line with costs.”

Regarding fuel costs, the ministry has had discussions with the Ministry of Energy, which uses a fund to maintain the diesel price at below Bt30 per litre and has been encouraging operators to use cheaper biodiesel at Bt20 at litre, he said.

Sujinda Cherdchai, the president of the Thai Bus Operators Association, said after the discussions that the results would be relayed to its members. She understood there would be a further meeting within a week or two and that there were doubts over the use of the biodiesel at Bt20 a litre on concerns over possible damage to vehicle engines.

A fare rise based on the formula of Bt0.10 per kilometre has been proposed, reflecting the operators’ inability to shoulder the burden of high oil prices.

The diesel price had stayed at Bt29.79 per litre since May 19, 2010, but was increased by Bt10.10 from February 1, 2016.

“From February 2016, the (bus) operators have not increased their fares, while the oil price has continued rising,” Sujinda said. “More than 30 per cent of the bus operators have terminated their businesses from early 2017 to February this year.”

Sujinda said that the proposed fare rise is not expected to have much impact on consumers, given the high competition from low-cost airlines and operators of public vans. The bus operators see the fare rise as reasonable, she said.

The Transport Department’s registered buses now number more than 10,000. Of the total, 5 per cent uses natural gas vehicle (NGV) and 95 per cent use diesel.

Yoo Chienyuenyongpong, president of the Asean Trucking Federation (ATF), went to Ministry of Transport to ask the government to use the Oil Fund to help relieve the problems caused by the rising diesel prices. Nowadays, the energy cost in transportation accounts for 50-55 per cent of total operating costs.

The transportation cost per trip has risen by 7 per cent on average. About 5 per cent goes on oil costs and 2 per cent to intercity motorway tolls.

The federation has asked the government to sustain the appropriate diesel price within four months as a means to give time for the operators to adjust,” said Yoo, adding that further discussions would be needed after that.

Charoenporn Charoentham, managing director of the shuttle boat service Chao Phraya Express Boat, said that if the diesel price rises to more than Bt29 per litre for more than 15 days, express boat operators may have to raise their fares by Bt1.

Chavalit Maetayaprapas, executive of the Khlong Saen Saep shuttle boat operating company Krobkrua Khonsong, shares this view and plans to meet the Marine Department to ask for a fare rise of Bt1 per trip.

An anonymous source from the Ministry of Energy said that the ministry is monitoring crude prices closely after pressure from truck and bus operators for the proposed use of the Oil Fund to sustain the diesel price.

According to the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, a crude price of close to US$80 per barrel may be reached within the next six months.