The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index is projected to close the first four months of 2018 with a gain of just 0,54 per cent. The gauge dropped 2.2 per cent for the first quarter. Yesterday, it closed up 3.95 points to 1,767.17.

Voravan Tarapoom, chairperson of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organisation, conceded that this year’s yield on the stock market will likely be less than that of last year, at about 5 per cent.

Prinn Panitchpakdi, managing director at CLSA Securities (Thailand), sees the benchmark gauge resuming its upward trend with a target of 1,900 points by the end of this year.

Korn Chotijiraphas, chief executive officer of Asia Wealth Securities, said that the Thai market is expected to get back to a growth path, estimating the SET Index will trade in a range of 1,700 to 1,900 points.

Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn, chief executive officer of Tisco Securities, shares in the view of an upward trend for the market, despite a number of negative factors. , Paiboon projects the SET Index will test 1,850-1,900 points in the latter part of this year.

Prinn said: “Recently, stock prices have gone down too much, especially for shares of the banks that cut their service fees. I see the declines as an opportunity for investment.”

Korn believes there will be market volatility from negative factors ranging from a trade war between the United States and China to the reduction in commercial banks’ fees.

Paiboon said the US-China trade conflicts were priced in and will have a short-term impact, while the market has also factored in a likely postponement of the general election. If the election occurs sooner than expected, the market could gain.

Prinn said that investors looking for yield over the next six to 12 months could turn to the banks, which could post a good performance, as well and construction stocks that stand to gain from the government’s acceleration in public investment.

Korn said rises in the oil price could be positive for the market, as about 40-45 per cent of the combined profits of Thai listed companies come from energy plays, while economic indicators have shown a marked improvement. He recommends energy stocks, citing the higher oil prides.

Paiboon prefers banks despite the fee reductions, given their business strength and consistent profitability. Construction firms will gain from the increased state investment and some property companies have good growth prospects, too, he said.

He said that the outlook for stocks of telecommunications was unclear, as the market would await clearer signs regarding the proposed postponement of fees collected by the regulator from holders of spectrum licences.

Padermphob Songkroh, managing director of Kasikorn Securities, estimates the SET Index will move in a narrow range due to an absence of market-influencing factors.

In the short term, the index is forecast to move in a range of 1,730-1,780 points, he said, suggesting investors should keep a watch on profit revisions by analysts after listed firms announce their first-quarter earnings.

 Prospects for a sustained broad-based global recovery and robust domestic demand underpin this positive outlook. Still, emerging risks to stability and sustained growth require close attention.

“Enhancing Potential”, the April edition of the World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update released yesterday, underscores that even with favourable prospects, policymakers in the region will be well advised to recognise and address emerging challenges.

Attending to the short-term risks associated with a faster-than-expected rise in interest rates in advanced economies and possible escalation of trade tensions will require tighter monetary policy and larger fiscal buffers. To raise growth in the longer term, boosting public and private investment, productivity growth, and human capital will be key.

After growing faster than anticipated in 2017, China is expected to slow moderately to 6.5 per cent in 2018 as its economy continues to rebalance away from investment and towards domestic consumption with policies that focus more on slowing credit expansion and improving the quality of growth.

Excluding China, growth in developing EAP is expected to remain stable in 2018 at 5.4 per cent, reflecting continued robust domestic and external demand. Growth in Indonesia and Thailand is expected to strengthen in 2018, with improved prospects for investment and private consumption. In the Philippines, growth is likely to remain stable in 2018. In Malaysia and Vietnam, growth is expected to ease, as public investment moderates in the former and agricultural production stabilises in the latter after rebounding in 2017.

Prospects for several of the smaller economies are generally favourable, in part due to higher commodity prices. In Myanmar, economic growth is projected to rise in 2018, although investment prospects could deteriorate with the problems in Rakhine state. Mongolia’s higher growth is predicated also on continued macroeconomic stabilisation. Papua New Guinea could experience a cyclical recovery as commodity prices rise, although the recent earthquake could hurt prospects. Growth in Cambodia is expected to pick up slightly, while Laos will likely see stable growth.

“Robust growth has underpinned the region’s tremendous gains in reducing extreme poverty. To build on this success, and improve prospects for the large share of the population who remain economically insecure, will require sustaining growth over the longer term,” said Victoria Kwakwa, World Bank vice president for East Asia and the Pacific. “Policymakers need to focus on addressing risks to economic stability while taking steps to enhance longer-term growth potential.”

The growth outlook for the Pacific island countries is mixed. Growth in Fiji and the Solomon Islands is projected to ease. Growth in the smaller island states is expected to be modest but volatile due to their high susceptibility to natural disasters and reliance on commodity imports.

“While the region’s growth outlook is positive, there are challenges for policy makers in the short and medium term,” said Sudhir Shetty, World Bank chief economist for the East Asia and Pacific region. “Addressing these challenges will require measures to dampen the possible impacts of a more rapid pace of monetary policy tightening in advanced economies as well as to enhance longer-term growth prospects in the face of policy uncertainty, particularly around global trade.”

With continued threats to the global trading system, developing EAP can respond by deepening its own trade integration and facilitation, through such mechanisms as the Asean Economic Community, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, and the Belt and Road Initiative. Done well, these initiatives will be even more important as countries adapt their manufacturing-led development strategies to the emerging challenges of labour saving technologies and automation, and the blurring of the lines between manufacturing and services, the report said.

The board will wait to see if the NLA succeeds in appointing the new commissioners on that date before making a decision on how it will proceed.

On Tuesday, NBTC commissioner Prawit Leesatapornwongsa said board members had mixed views on the case with one group seeking to go ahead and approve the draft auction rules given that the Council of State has replied to the NBTC that it could continue to perform its duties under the new NBTC law.

However, those in the other camp feel that it would be better to hand this responsibility to the incoming board.

MAZDA LIFTS SALES 31%

Mazda Sales (Thailand) Co Ltd has announced business results for the 2017 fiscal year, including record sales of 56,000 units with growth of 31 per cent.

During the year, The Mazda2 subcompact produced a strong performance to capture young customers and become the market leader, while the new CX-5’s performance was equally impressive, with sales of 3,929 within 5 months of launch.

Mazda is planning to expand business with the “Mazda Way” philosophy, and is promoting Thai executives to lead all departments in order to strengthen the organisation through the “One Mazda Team” strategy.

Chanchai Trakarnudomsuk, president of Mazda Sales (Thailand) Co Ltd, commented that the Thai automobile market started to recover during the first-half of fiscal year 2017 and the positive scenario became clear in the second half.

Sales in fiscal year 2017, April 2017 to March 2018, amounted to 56,379 units, the highest in 5 years, representing a 31 per cent growth form the previous year. Meanwhile, Mazda’s estimated market share has risen to 6.3 per cent, the highest since the company started doing business in Thailand.

This is also Mazda’s second-highest market share in the world, and Thailand is also Mazda’s fastest-growing market worldwide,” he said.

Thailand is Mazda’s seventh-largest market after China, the US, Japan, Australia, Canada, and Germany.

In its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2018, the ADB forecasts gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Asia and the Pacific at 6 per cent in 2018 and 5.9 per cent in 2019, a slight deceleration from the 6.1 per cent registered in 2017.

Excluding the high-income newly industrialised economies, growth is expected to reach 6.5 per cent in 2018 and 6.4 per cent in 2019, from 6.6 per cent in 2017. ADO is the bank’s ADB’s flagship annual economic publication.

“Economies across developing Asia will maintain the current growth momentum driven by sound policies, expanding exports, and robust domestic demand,” said Yasuyuki Sawada, ADB’s chief economist. “Strong regional trade links and rising financial buffers position the region well to withstand potential external shocks, including the risks of rising trade tensions and rapid capital outflows.” The recovery in industrial economies continues, with the US, the euro area, and Japan are expected to collectively grow by 2.3 per cent in 2018 before slowing to 2 per cent in 2019. Recently enacted tax cuts will fuel growth in the US as the Federal Reserve keeps inflation in check through gradual monetary tightening. Meanwhile, rising business confidence and easy monetary policy will support growth in the euro area and Japan.

The service sector is fuelling China’s continued growth, increasing by 8 per cent in 2017. Growth in China will slow to 6.6 per cent in 2018 and 6.4 per cent in 2019, following the rapid 6.9 per cent expansion in 2017. Strong demand at home and abroad together with economic reforms lay the foundation for continued growth and macroeconomic stability in China.

Growth in South Asia remains among the world’s fastest, driven by a recovery in India, the region’s largest economy. Indian growth is expected to pick up to 7.3 per cent in fiscal year 2018 and 7.6 per cent in fiscal 2019, following the estimated 6.6 per cent in fiscal 2017. The impact of the demonetisation of high-value banknotes has dissipated and the full implementation of the goods and services tax will bolster growth through 2019.

Southeast Asia continues to benefit from the rise in global trade and the pickup in commodity prices. The subregion is expected to maintain its 2017 growth rate of 5.2 per cent in both 2018 and 2019. Strong investment and domestic consumption will drive an acceleration in growth in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand, while an expansion in its industrial base will boost Vietnam.

Central Asia

Growth in Central Asia is expected to reach 4 per cent in 2018 and 4.2 per cent in 2019, on the back of rising commodity prices. Meanwhile, growth in the Pacific will reach 2.2 per cent and 3 per cent over the next 2 years as the region’s largest economy, Papua New Guinea, stabilises following an earthquake that temporarily disrupted gas production.

Asian consumers and commodity price rises will fuel higher inflation in the region. Regional consumer price inflation is projected to accelerate to 2.9 per cent in 2018 and 2019, from the 2.3 per cent registered in 2017. Inflation projections for the next two years, however, are well below the 10-year regional average of 3.7 per cent.

Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, driven primarily by fears of escalating trade tensions. Recent US tariffs on select products have not yet dented trade, but further actions by the US and counteractions against them could undermine business and consumer confidence in Asia and the Pacific. Higher US interest rates could accelerate capital outflows, although this risk is mitigated to some degree by abundant liquidity throughout the region. Fortunately, most Asian economies are well positioned to meet these challenges.

Rising private debt remains a concern in some Asian economies. ADB research prepared for the ADO shows that debt accumulation has a positive impact on economies only in the short run.

Private debt in developing Asia has risen markedly since the global financial crisis and its limited effect on output suggests not all of the additional debt is channelled into productive investments. Authorities can counter this risk by strengthening regional financial systems.

We attempt to gauge the impact of US-China trade spat on Thailand’s economy by analysing the list of products that would be subject to import tariff in both countries. As part of China supply chain, the most vulnerable part of Thailand’s exports includes rubber and products, computer and parts, chemicals, auto parts, integrated circuits and electrical appliances. Taken together, they worth around US$14 billion or almost 6 per cent of total exports in 2017. Some of these products will be re-exported to US, while the others will be for domestic use or re-exported to other countries. We use OCED data to gauge the extent to which China re-export these products to US, and find that Thailand exports would likely be hit by 0.66 per cent. Finally, we estimate the impact on Thai GDP by using the value added to GDP by each industry and conclude that negative impact on Thai economy would be limited to 0.17 per cent of GDP.

On the bright side, as China plans to retaliate with tariff on US goods, Thailand could gain from increased exports to China. China tariff list includes pork, fruits and nuts, soy bean, wine and steels. For fruit and nuts, Thailand’s products are very competitive and are popular among Chinese, they account for 3.0 per cent of total exports to China in 2017.

Contributed by Wilanda Disorntetiwat, economist at TISCO Economic Strategy Unit. She can be reached via http://www.tiscowealth.com or wilanda@tisco.co.th.

Pittaya Virapanyasakul, executive vice president for credit cards at Krungthai Card Plc (KTC), said estimated spending put on credit would exceed that of last year’s festival, and would be in line with the 7-8 per cent increase seen for the first quarter of this year.

A large share of the extra spending is expected to go on travel-related expenses, such as petrol, restaurants and overseas trips.

In the second quarter of this year, credit-card spending is expected to grow steadily in almost all sectors, said Pittaya, indicating credit-card holders tend to purchase more and more products and services online. For the year, spending on credit cards is forecast to rise by 15 per cent.

Thakorn Piyapan, head of Krungsri Consumer Group, which operates the Krungsri credit card, Krungsri First Choice Visa, as well as Central’s The 1 credit card and the Tesco Lotus Visa credit card, said the overall business outlook remains bright this year, reflected by strong spending in the year so far.

In the first quarter of this year, Krungsri Consumer Group recorded Bt63.7 billion in spending through its cards and Bt19 billion in total loans, while its non-performing loan ratio was stable at 3 per cent.

During this year’s Songkran Festival, consumers are likely to prefer travel or family activities and these trends would point to higher spending.

KTC and Krungsri Consumer Group will launch marketing campaigns, such as for cash-back coupons, promotions at restaurants and other outlets popular with tourists, and discounts or cash- back offers for local and overseas spending covering shopping, dining and travel during the festival.

More broadly, Kasikorn Research Centre (KResearch) expects domestic travel in Thailand in the first half of 2018 to continue its boom, driven by factors including the “Go Local” campaign and the long Songkran break. Thais go back to their hometowns to reunite with their families and celebrate the Thai New Year, while taking leisure trips during such trips.

For Songkran this year, tourist destinations are increasingly showcasing the theme of Thai culture in line with a trend for heritage tourism that is taking hold among Thai holidaymakers.

KResearch estimates that during the seven-day Songkran Festival – from April 11-17 – tourism receipts are set to reach Bt15.6 billion, up 15.8 per cent from the same period last year.

The research house said the Go Local tourism campaign was particularly evident in the increasing number of domestic tourists at historical sites in Bangkok and Ayutthaya.

Due to the positive trends, KResearch projects that in the first half of 2018, the Go Local campaign should generate Bt515 billion in tourism receipts, rising 8.5 per cent year on year.