“With more than one year left before the TPP is open to new member states, Thailand will take this opportunity to conduct a public hearing to voice opinion from all involved sectors before signing the agreement, in order to reduce conflict in society and find remedial measures or an ‘introduction programme’ in advance,” he explained.

After meeting with FTA Watch yesterday, Commerce Minister Apiradi Tantraporn said her ministry would listen to all suggestions from government agencies, the business and farming sectors, academics and social sectors, as well as seek to improve competitiveness and identify remedial measures to mitigate any adverse impacts after joining the TPP.

Thailand needs to improve its competitiveness as part of preparations for joining the TPP, as well as for other free-trade agreements, she stressed.

A number of countries have already expressed interested in joining the partnership, including South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Honduras and Columbia.

Apiradi said the government would work out remedial measures for concerned sectors, on such issues as intellectual property rights on pharmaceuticals, plant variety protection, investors’ rights and the farming sector, in order to ensure the maximum overall benefits from the Kingdom’s membership.

As it stands, the TPP is the biggest trade agreement in history, with a combine gross domestic product worth US$27.4 trillion (Bt997 trillion), accounting for 39.3 per cent of global GDP, while combined trade among the 12 members is worth $8.7 trillion, accounting for 26.17 per cent of global trading.

The TPP, which aims to reduce tariffs and other forms of protectionism among its membership, came after more than five years of negotiations among the United States, Canada, Japan, Australia, Singapore, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru and Vietnam.

For Thailand, an official study shows that the country could benefit in some sectors and lose in others as a result of TPP participation.

Apiradi said that as more than 60 per cent of the national economy was reliant on exports, the TPP would definitely affect Thailand’s trading.

FTA Watch spokeswoman Kannika Kittiwetchakun called for government agencies to reveal information about the potential TPP benefits and impacts on all sectors, so that a fair, weighted view could be reached on whether Thailand needed to join the agreement.

She said that if Thailand decided to join the TPP, it would need to accept the extension of medicine patent protection from one to 10 years, which could affect the national social health-guarantee programme.

The Public Health Ministry would need to prepare a budget of up to Bt288 billion a year to remedy the problem, while the study found that Thailand’s TPP participation would promote economic growth by just 0.77 percentage point, she added.

Moreover, the Kingdom would need to set up an Investor-State Dispute Settlement mechanism and amend many of its laws and regulations, Kannikar said.

Other issues of concern are a TPP allowance for beef and pork imports from the US, the elimination of labelling on alcohol beverages, and labels on food supplements for babies.

She said that with so many risks and matters of concern for Thailand, the country should not rush into a decision to join the pact, but should carefully consider all impacts and create balance for all sectors.

Nopporn Thepsithar, chairman of the Thai National Shippers Council, said the TPP should help support Thai trade growth, as was the case with other trade agreements.

The government should prioritise on which pacts Thailand should focus, and then find remedial measures for negatively affected sectors, he said.

The government stance in regard to applying for TPP membership is a good signal that will boost the confidence of foreign investors and encourage more investment, said Pimonwan Mahujchariyawong, deputy managing director of Kasikorn Research Centre.

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking also urged Thailand to join the TPP, with the government’s stance as stated by Somkid opening up further opportunities for exporters to the US.

The Thai banking sector has matured thanks to its ability to withstand difficult crises in past years, and the banks now have a clear role in supporting cross-border business activities, said Vivek Pathak, IFC regional director for East Asia and the Pacific.

The IFC and two Thai banks – Bangkok Bank and Kiatnakin Bank – on Monday signed an agreement on a syndicated loan totalling US$160 million (Bt5.7 billion) to ACLEDA Bank, a commercial bank that plays a significant role in microfinance in Cambodia. The IFC’s share of the syndicated loan is $70 million, with the rest shared by BBL, KKP and Cathay United Bank (Cambodia).

ACLEDA will use the funds to finance the Women Entrepreneurs Opportunity Facility, a first-of-its-kind global facility dedicated to expanding access to capital for up to 100,000 female entrepreneurs.

More than 40 per cent of Cambodia’s small and medium-sized enterprises are owned or managed by women, yet the vast majority of them are either unserved or underserved by the financial sector.

Pathak said the GMS market was growing strongly and there could be a lot of demand for financing, which means a lot of demand for the Thai banking sector, which is very mature. Moreover, Thai banks are well placed to provide technical skills to financial institutions in the GMS.

He said the IFC wanted ACLEDA to diversify its sources of funding, and Thai banks were the logical choice.

He said the IFC’s role was to get its clients to meet new partners as sources of funding and encouraging Thai financial institutions to invest in firms in Cambodia. He said the IFC would work with Thai banks to get them outside the home market and help them invest in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam.

Pathak pointed to Myanmar as one of highest-growth markets among developing countries, and said his organisation had just signed a deal in that country’s import sector and was looking for more involvement it its power sector.

“Myanmar is a very important market for us. Following the isolation of its economy for many years, we think the IFC role will help the country moving forward,” he said.

The IFC will sign a similar deal in Myanmar to the one with the Cambodian microfinance bank in the next two or three months, he said.

In Myanmar, demands for financing are in infrastructure, financial services, and agricultural-related business.

Even though the syndicated loan in Cambodia has seen the private sector play a role in helping a small business access lending, Pathak believes that the private and public sectors have to work together to ensure that businesses including SMEs can access finance.

He does not think political uncertainty in this region will pose a concern for the IFC’s efforts to provide financial support to the developing countries, as the corporation is a long-term investor. But the key thing is that governments continue to carry out the right kind of reform, as good governance and transparency are important for the IFC.

Last year, the IFC’s long-term investment in developing countries was around $18 billion, and Pathak said this year’s figure would be the same because of uncertainties in Latin America and because commodity prices were coming down, causing the economies of developing countries to slow down. However, there are a lot of opportunities for Asean, which means the long-term investment by IFC this year should stay at $18 billion.

Commercial banks are willing to do long-term lending and a lot of them are actually pouring money into emerging markets, so the IFC’s role is becoming more importance in many markets, he added.

As for Thailand, even though it is facing an economic slowdown, the government is doing a lot of work to try to get the economy to move faster, and in his view, these efforts are in the right direction.

“If the global economy has not recovered and Thai exports still decline until June, the country’s exports for the whole year could see negative growth again,” Nopporn Thepsithar, chairman of the TNSC, said yesterday.

The global economy could face an economic crisis like the one in 2008, which would cause global trading to become sluggish.

The risk factors for global trading and Thai shipping are the economic problems in China, the European Union and Japan, currency wars, fluctuating prices of oil and commodities, the United Kingdom leaving the European Union, political conflict in many countries, fear of terrorism, natural disasters and disease, and the refugee problem affecting the economic growth of the EU.

The exchange rate is expected to fluctuate after the likely increase in US interest rates, while China will continue to push for including its currency in the international trading basket.

The expected range of the baht is 34-36.5 against the US dollar this year.

However, exports in the third and fourth quarters could return to growth, resulting in full-year growth of zero to 2 per cent.

Gross domestic product in April picked up at a gradual pace with the service sector as the main growth engine, according to the “Economic and Monetary Conditions for April 2016” report of the Bank of Thailand.

Manufacturing expanded at a lethargic pace as merchandise exports continued to contract in line with the slowdown in major trading partners’ economies, and domestic purchasing power weakened as a consequence of the drought.

Private investment has yet to show a clear sign of recovery. Public spending weakened slightly after accelerating in previous periods.

The unemployment rate remained stable from the previous month. The current account registered a surplus thanks to a low level of imports and high tourism receipts.

Tourism continued to be a main growth driver. Foreign arrivals surged 9.8 per cent from the same period last year, partly because of the expansion of international routes by low-cost airlines.

Manufacturing production slightly improved from the same period last year.

However, overall production for exports continued to contract in line with the slowdown in the economies of major trading partners such as China and Asean, while some industrials continued to face structural constraints both from domestic factors and changes in the global trade structure.

Merchandise exports contracted 7.6 per cent from the same period last year. Regarding domestic demand, private consumption indicators were relatively stable from the previous month.

While spending on non-durable goods improved slightly, households were still cautious in their spending owing partly to fragile consumer confidence and subdued purchasing power.

Pongpun Gearaviriyapun, director-general of the department, said it would ask the Interior Ministry and the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration for the authority to set up an online registration system to save entrepreneurs cost and time.

She said that besides helping enterprises, the online registration system should allow consumers to check the backgrounds of companies easily. “The department will help verify enterprises to prevent unscrupulous businesses ripping off consumers.”

The system should also help increase Thailand’s competitiveness ranking, Pongpun said.

The IMD World Competitiveness Centre upgraded Thailand’s ranking from 30th to 28th this year. The upgrade resulted mainly from the improvement in government efficiency to facilitate business transactions and better service standards.

The department will also encourage online traders in social networks such as on Facebook and Instagram to register with the department.

The Commerce Ministry has called for e-commerce traders to register with the department so they will get a legal business licence and protection under the law.

With rising trend of e-commerce, the Business Development Department has projected the number of registrations of online traders surging to 60,000 this year from about 15,000 in 2015.

The department has found that more than 500,000 enterprises trade online, but only a few of them have registered for a business licence.

The department will host the fifth “Thailand E-Commerce Days” from June 9-11 at Queen Sirikit National Convention Centre in Bangkok. The event is aimed at promoting online trading, whose value is estimated to reach Bt2.1 trillion this year.

Thailand ranks 28th among 61 economies. In 2015, the country dropped one place to 30th.

All five sub-indicators in |the government-efficiency pillar – public finance, fiscal policy, institutional framework, business legislation and societal framework – showed progress.

Among three other pillars, economic performance remained unchanged at 13th, business |efficiency slipped one place to 25th and infrastructure fell three ranks to 49th.

In the infrastructure pillar, while Thailand sits high at sixth in mobile broadband subscribers, energy intensity is 58th, showing low energy efficiency.

In the business-efficiency |pillar, while the labour force and factors for the financial and banking sector are ranked in the top 15, labour productivity is as low as 55th and the competitiveness of small and medium-sized enterprises is 50th.

Hong Kong takes over top place from the United States, which was the champion for the past three years.

While the US backtracks |to second, Switzerland comes |in third. Singapore, Sweden, Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway and Canada round out the top |10.

Five countries from Southeast Asia are listed, of which three saw slippage – five places for Malaysia to 19th, one for the Philippines to 42nd and six for Indonesia to 48th.

Professor Arturo Bris, director of the centre, said yesterday that one crucial fact that the |centre’s research underlined year after year was that current economic growth is by no means a guarantee of future competitiveness.

The common pattern among all of the countries in the top 20 is their focus on business-friendly regulation, physical and intangible infrastructure and inclusive institutions.

In Thailand’s case, it is urged to focus on issues ranging from investment and education to political reform to boost its competitiveness ranking in a few years.

Thailand should especially accelerate mega-project investment and launch inclusive political and social reform for social and economic stability.

On the education front, Thailand needs to reform the system to align with development needs.

The country’s education ranking is low.

All scores for human development, computers per capita, student/teacher ratio, broadband subscribers, secondary-school enrolment and high-education achievement are below 50th place.

It is also recommended to develop transport and logistics systems to capitalise on its competitive advantage and optimise Asean supply-chain linkages to strengthen competitiveness.

At the first-ever “Bangladesh Trade and Investment Expo”, a three-day event that kicked off in Bangkok yesterday, Bangladeshi Commerce Minister Tofail Ahmed said the two countries could cooperate more in many sectors.

“Bangladesh’s economy is expected to grow strongly, by more than 7 per cent this year from last year’s 6 per cent,” he said.

“The country has a policy to promote more export and promote more foreign direct investment to help develop our nation. Thailand, with [its] close relations [with Bangladesh], could seek greater trading and investment opportunities. Bangladesh has tariff privileges for being a least developed [country], while we can be a springboard to third markets,” he said.

The minister said there were many sectors in which Thai investors and traders could do business in his country such as information technology, textiles and garments, infrastructure development, travel and tourism, beverages, pharmaceuticals and construction.

The Bangladeshi government has a policy to promote special economic zones and offer many investment privileges for investors, he added.

Thai Commerce Minister Apiradi Tantraporn said Thailand could be a gateway for Bangladesh to reach other Asean countries, while foreseeing Bangladesh as a springboard for producing and exporting goods to third countries.

Thailand and Bangladesh will strengthen ties in trade, investment and economic activities at the upcoming fourth Thailand-Bangladesh Joint Trade Committee meeting to find more cooperation in various areas as well as solve problems for both countries in trading and investing, she said.

Bilateral trade is expected to double to about US$2 billion (Bt71 million) next year from the current level. Thai exports to Bangladesh last year were worth about $900 million, while Bangladesh exports to Thailand were valued at $39 million.

Bangladeshi Ambassador to Thailand Saida Muna Tasneem said her country would like to broaden trade and investment with Thailand.

The ongoing expo is the first in the 44 years of diplomatic relations between Thailand and Bangladesh. Fifty-five top companies from Bangladesh are showcasing their products and services including ready-made garments, pharmaceuticals, leather, ceramics and tableware, silk, tea, jute products, light engineering, furniture, IT and tourism.

Isara Vongkusolkit, chairman of the Board of Trade of Thailand, said many trade and investment opportunities were awaiting Thai investors. Bangladesh has a large population of more than 160 million and a supply of cheap labour, with the facility for duty-free re-export.

Products that Thailand could export more of to this market include fruit juice and halal food, and it could invest in energy, agricultural and manufacturing.

Stanley Kang, chairman of the Joint Foreign Chambers of Commerce, said Thailand and Bangladesh could begin talks on a free-trade agreement to facilitate trade growth.

Abdul Matlub Ahmed, president of the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry, said the two sides could set up a bilateral agreement on |trade in priority products under an early harvest programme. For instance, they could select 30 items on which both sides waived tariffs.

Kalin Sarasin, managing director of SCG Trading, said the company had exported many construction materials to Bangladesh to support its infrastructure-development projects.

To date, Thai interests have invested in 96 projects worth $605 million in various industries such as poultry, fish meal, electronics and power generation. Charoen Pokphand has invested in Bangladesh’s food-processing industry, and Italian-Thai Development in the infrastructure sector, including the Dhaka Elevated Expressway.

There were 37,684,243 people employed during the quarter, a slight increase of 0.2 per cent year on year.

However, the number of jobs in the agricultural sector dropped by 2.7 per cent because of severe drought, while employment in the non-agricultural sector rose by 1.5 per cent on economic expansion, especially in the manufacturing, construction, transport and tourism sectors.

The number of the unemployed stood at 369,893 in the first quarter, resulting in an unemployment rate of 0.97 per cent, versus 0.94 per cent in the first quarter last year.

Currently, among the key labour- and employment-related issues needed to be monitored are the drought and slow global economic growth, especially in neighbouring countries and in China. These negative factors are believed to have had an impact on Thai exports, especially from labour-intensive sectors such as cassava, rubber, and textiles.

The drought last year caused a 3.8-per-cent contraction in agricultural value-added, with the farm production index dropping from 119.9 in March 2014 to 113.65 in March this year. Accordingly, employment in the agricultural sector declined by more than 460,000 workers.

The government has launched several measures to tackle the problems of drought with the focus on a long-term solution through technical improvements in farm production.

The growth rate of household debt this year is expected to decline, judging from the slow growth in outstanding loans of commercial banks in the first quarter as financial institutions tightened lending.

Last year, the average income of households was Bt26,915 per month, up 3.4 per cent year on year, while expenses were Bt21.157 per household per month, up 5.4 per cent.

In 2015, the average debt per household was Bt156,770, down 2 per cent, compared with an increase of 10 per cent year on year in 2013, thanks to stricter policy on loans among commercial banks and government measures to tackle household debt.

The NBTC and the Transport Ministry have signed a memorandum of understanding on allocating the bandwidth for wireless railway communication under the high-speed-rail projects, using Global System for Mobile Communications-Railway technology. GSM-R is an international wireless-communications standard for contact between trains and railway control centres.

However, the telecom operators want the licensing body to allocate the band for their cellular services.

As one of the lower telecommunication spectra, 800MHz is much-sought by mobile-phone operators as it is technically suitable for providing cellular service upcountry. The spectrum is being used by Total Access Communication (DTAC) under a CAT Telecom concession that will expire in September 2018.

The importance of the 800MHz is high because of the shortage of available lower-band spectra.

The NBTC auctioned two licences of another lower band – 900MHz – last December. True Corp and Jasmine International subsidiary Jas Mobile Broadband each won a 900MHz licence at that auction. Jas later lost the right to use the band after its failure to pay the first instalment of the upfront licence fee. The NBTC called a new auction of the forfeited licence last Friday, which Advanced Info Service subsidiary Advanced Wireless Network won uncontested.

Earlier the NBTC planned to allocate another low band – the 700MHz spectrum – for telecom services. However, that spectrum is being used by Bangkok Broadcasting & TV Co, operator of analog television station Channel 7, under a Royal Thai Army concession. That concession will not expire until 2023.

The NBTC has hired Chula Unisearch of Chulalongkorn University to study the economic and social impacts of the allocation of the 800MHz spectrum for high-speed rail. The study will be complete this September, but preliminary findings were released last week.

According to NBTC deputy secretary-general Air Vice Marshal Thanapant Raichareon, Chula Unisearch has initially proposed three scenarios. The first is the allocation of the whole 10MHz to serve communications for the high-speed trains, the second is to allocate only 5MHz for that purpose, and the third is to allocate the whole band for telecom services. Last week Chula Unisearch presented its preliminary findings to the focus groups of relevant parties.

The study found that in the base case, if the NBTC assigns 5MHz of the 800MHz spectrum to the railway system, the state will lose the opportunity to gain Bt37.988 billion if this band were put to auction. The loss could reach Bt75.976 billion if the whole 10MHz were assigned to high-speed rail.

The loss figures were calculated from the average final price of two 900MHz licences at the auction last December, or Bt75.976 billion.

If the NBTC allocates 5MHz of the spectrum to high-speed trains, the loss to state revenue over 15 years would reach Bt177.229 billion, and Bt354.46 billion if the whole 10MHz band is allocated to that. These projected losses were calculated from total revenue of the three mobile operators in 2015, Bt258.47 billion.

In the same base case, the assignment of half or all of this bandwidth to the high-speed trains could cut the communication costs of the private sector by more than Bt76 billion.

During a focus-group meeting, a DTAC representative recommended that the NBTC consider using Long Term Evolution-Railway technology instead of GSM-R for the high-speed-rail communication system. The spectra that can be used for LTE-R include 2.3, 2.5 and 3.5 gigahertz.

A representative of the State Railway of Thailand said the state agency was waiting for the government to finalise which technology it will deploy.

If the governments selects Chinese railway technology, it will need 10MHz for the communication system. If it selects European technology, it will need only 5MHz.