Retailers see bright online future

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ANALYSIS

DESPITE online shopping contributing a low proportion of their sales so far, major retailers have prepared strategies to cash in on the rising trend of shoppers shifting towards the online option.

The boom of smartphone technology, social networks and online applications will play a crucial role in the growth of online activities in Thailand and other markets around the world.

Central Group’s recent acquisition of online fashion retailer Zalora in Thailand and Vietnam shows a strong commitment by Thailand’s largest retail conglomerate in the future of e-commerce.

Kridchanok Patamasatayasonthi, managing director of Index Living Mall, said the e-commerce market in Thailand was now quite competitive and would become more so in the future.

There are currently more than 38 million social-media users in Thailand, accounting for 56 per cent of the population. Such numbers are a significant driving factor for the growth of e-commerce market in Thailand.

A survey by Rakuten.com founded that online shoppers in Thailand preferred shopping for several products online, which are fashion apparel (24 per cent), fragrances (11 per cent), furniture (10 per cent), information-technology products (8 per cent), and food and beverages (6 per cent).

“Index Living Mall has seen the business opportunity of e-commerce,” Kridchanok said.

“We have created a new online retail store for our individual clients via www.indexlivingmall.com. With the site, customers will be able to select our home-furnishing products in any category. We provide delivery and installation services from our professional teams. She said e-commerce was expected to grow strongly this year, by about 150 per cent compared with last year. In 2015, online sales surged by 100 per cent from 2014, of which 80 per cent were sales of furniture and the rest home decorative items and electrical goods.

Onsurang Keratichewanun, director of online shopping at Big C Supercenter, said the company planned to become one of the biggest online grocery-shopping outlets within five years, with year-on-year growth of more than 100 per cent.

“Thailand has huge potential for e-commerce business, since [for the past] couple of years we have been able to see there is high demand and supply via online purchases. The market will move forward to omni-channel; with the combination of online and offline, customers can order online and they can select whether to pick up the purchase at the store or [have it delivered to] their house,” Onsurang said.

At a recent press conference, John Christie, chief executive officer of Tesco Lotus, told the media that an expansion of online distribution was among the company’s three key business strategies. The others were new branches and keeping prices low.

To cash in on the change in customers’ digital lifestyles and behaviour, Tesco Lotus continues developing its online shopping platform with its partners, he said.

“We are now offering more than 8,000 non-food products via Lazada.com. They include electronic devices, beauty and healthcare products,” he said.

Crude looks tentative on new perch in mid-$40s

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OIL INSIGHT

CRUDE-OIL FUTURES touched year-to-date highs in April and held on to most of their gains entering May, despite major producers inside and outside the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) gathered in Doha on April 17 failing to agree on a production freeze in a last-ditch bid to curb oversupply.

An open-ended oil workers’ strike in Kuwait, the start of which coincided with the Doha meeting, slashed that country’s crude-oil output by 60 per cent to around 1.1 million barrels per day (MMbpd), reminding the markets that producers across the Middle East and North Africa remain particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions, due either to sabotage, or terrorist activity, or general unrest.

The Kuwaiti strike was in response to a raft of financial and economic reforms proposed by the government in March to cope with low oil prices, including oil-sector wage cuts. The strike was the first at a national oil company in the Gulf region since 2011, but can hardly be expected to be the last, given that governments across the region are tightening their fiscal belts.

The Kuwait strike ended after three days, but it set crude on an upward trajectory, which saw Brent vault over US$48 a barrel on April 28 to a year-to-date high settle.

Supply disruptions continue to plague Nigeria, while growing financial distress among producers such as Venezuela and Angola is shaping the view that involuntary output reductions may be coming down the pike for some of the Opec producers who are starting to run out of money to pay their joint-venture partners and oilfield service providers.

US crude-oil production continues to slide. It slipped below the 9MMbpd million mark in April, and is on course to average 8.6MMbpd in 2016, according to the latest projections by the US Energy Information Administration, down around 800,000bpd from last year. The EIA also lowered its 2017 output forecast to 8MMbpd.

Hedge funds and money managers on both sides of the Atlantic built major net long positions in the NYMEX light sweet and ICE Brent contracts through April, presumably buying into the narrative of steady global demand growth and declining non-Opec production rebalancing markets in the second half of this year.

The US Federal Reserve decided to hold interest rates steady at its April 27-28 meeting, which, though widely expected, weakened the greenback, also giving a leg up to crude-oil prices. Several market watchers, nevertheless, remain unconvinced by crude’s latest rally.

The continued slide in US oil-rig count, now down 80 per cent from its October 2014 peak, is no longer a surprise, and the first annual drop in crude output in 2016 after seven consecutive years of gains has long been baked into market fundamentals.

Iran ratcheted up its crude-oil production to 3.23MMbpd in March, according to S&P Global Platts data, 340,000bpd higher than December, the last full month before the lifting of sanctions against the country over its nuclear programme. Opec’s March production inched up from February, and preliminary data showed a modest climb in April exports.

Saudi Arabia scuttling a production-freeze agreement in Doha because of Iran’s refusal to participate points to a likely roll-over of Opec’s market-share strategy at its next scheduled meeting on June 2.

In the absence of any further major supply disruptions in the Middle East/North Africa region, and with Iran pulling out all the stops to ramp up, even if that happens to be slower than suggested by official rhetoric, it’s hard to see what exactly is accelerating the market towards a rebalancing in the second half of this year. The International Energy Agency expects world oil demand to rise by 1.2MMbpd in 2016, with Asia-Pacific contributing a robust 900,000bpd.

Hopes are pinned on India displacing China as the new driver of demand growth in Asia. India is rising, no doubt, but from a relatively smaller consumption base of around 4.2MMbpd. Even with anticipated 8-per-cent annual growth, the country will add barely 340,000bpd to oil demand.

Meanwhile, Chinese oil-demand growth is slowing from 5.7 per cent in 2015 to an expected 2 per cent in 2016 on a base of just over 11MMbpd. This slashes nearly 400,000bpd of incremental consumption, leaving it to add a paltry 220,000bpd this year.

Demand in Asia’s second-largest oil consumer Japan is in secular decline. In South Korea, the region’s fourth-largest consumer, it grew by a healthy 5.9 per cent in the first quarter of this year on the back of low prices, which adds about 110,000bpd. Even disregarding the downside risk to expected rates of demand increase in Asia’s major consumers, the numbers don’t add up.

The bottom line is that the current oil-market downturn is destined for a mainly supply-driven and hence painfully slow rebalancing, given that the demand response is being weakened by economic headwinds in the short term and a push towards cleaner energy in the longer term.

The industry’s math is being rewritten, from the cost of the marginal barrel, to the price elasticity of demand. The magic moment may not come in the second half of 2016. If it does, it may not endure.

Vandana Hari is Asia editorial director, S&P Global Platts, and research scholar, S&P Global Institute.

Air passenger demand up 5.3% globally in March, IATA reports

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AIR-TRAFFIC

GLOBAL air-passenger traffic rose by 5.3 per cent year on year in March as measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), the International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported.

Capacity grew slightly faster at 5.9 per cent, which pushed the average load factor down by half a percentage point to 79.6 per cent.

March performance shows a moderate slowdown on the year-on-year growth rates recorded in January (7.2 per cent) and February (8.6 per cent) even after adjusting for the leap-year impact in February.

Demand for international traffic grew significantly more quickly (6.2 per cent) than that for domestic travel (3.7 per cent).

Long-term trends

“While in line with long-term trends, demand growth in March represented a slowdown compared [with] January and February,” said Tony Tyler, IATA’s director-general and chief executive officer.

“It is premature to say whether this marks the end of the recent very strong results. We do expect further stimulus in the form of network expansion and declines in travel costs. However, the wider economic backdrop remains subdued.”

March international passenger demand rose 6.2 per cent compared with March 2015, which was a decline compared with the 9.1-per-cent increase in February. Airlines in all regions recorded growth. Total capacity climbed 6.9 per cent, causing load factor to slip 0.5 percentage point to 78.5 per cent.

Asia-Pacific airlines’ traffic rose 6 per cent in March compared with the year-ago period; however, capacity increased 7.8 per cent, which caused load factor to slide 1.3 percentage points to 77.4 per cent.

Key routes within Asia, across the Pacific and to the Middle East grew strongly in the opening months, although Asia-to-Europe routes lagged behind.

Asia embarks on structural reforms

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ECONOMY

pic

WITH THE COLLAPSE in commodity prices and growing global financial-market volatility, most Asian countries are being forced to rely more on domestic demand and undertake drastic economic restructuring to strengthen growth.

Indonesia has embarked on fiscal reform to ensure that its money is spent on productive industries rather than continuing to support a fuel subsidy.

At the annual meeting of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Bambang PS Brodjonegoro, the finance minister of Indonesia, said his country was moving away from the unproductive petrol subsidy to providing more productive infrastructure and social protection.

“For the remaining subsidies, we are working to ensure they are better targeted to the poor and the needy. The government has also delivered a series of deregulation packages,” he said.

There are now 12 structural reform packages being implemented, all directed at maintaining purchasing power to boost consumption and improving the business climate to promote investment.

The government is also working closely with the central bank to ensure that monetary policy will be set in line with the fiscal and structural reforms.

In 2015, Indonesia’s gross domestic product grew by 4.8 per cent. Inflation was 3.35 per cent. Despite low commodity prices, it recorded a trade surplus of US$7.52 billion, and its current-account deficit shrank to 2.1 per cent from 3.1 per cent in 2014.

“It is very important to acknowledge that the global economy will continue to be volatile in the midst of low commodity prices. For an emerging economy like Indonesia’s, that means we cannot rely on the external sector to promote growth. We have to explore all possible policy tools – fiscal, monetary and structural reform,” he said.

Nguyen Thi Hong, the ADB governor of Vietnam, said that country was also going through a transition, with GDP growth reaching 6.7 per cent last year and inflation under control.

Vietnam has been restructuring its banking system, including tackling non-performing loans.

It has also entered free-trade agreements with major trading partners.

“This process is expected to accelerate the structural transformation of Vietnam’s economy, stimulate investment and reinforce the further diversification of Vietnam’s export basket towards manufacturing products,” he said.

Somdy Douangdy, governor of the central bank of Laos, said his country’s economy expanded by 7.4 per cent last year, down from 7.8 per cent in 2014.

Inflation has been adjusted to a downtrend from the decline in global oil prices and moderation in domestic demand.

On the monetary front, the Laotian government has taken a series of measures including issuing tighter regulations on foreign-currency management and widening daily exchange movements to allow flexibility to some extent.

“A stable exchange rate against major foreign currencies will remain as a key priority in order to improve domestic and foreign investors’ confidence and to boost economic output,” he said.

“We also acknowledge the necessity to build up gross international reserves as a cushion against external shocks.”

The government has implemented a mechanism to assist domestic revenue collection, enforce laws and regulations and strengthen public-debt management, he said.

Vongsey Vissoth, Cambodia’s finance minister, said the country continued to sustain its strong growth trend over the past decade with solid expansion of 7 per cent in 2015 as a result of industrial and service-sector expansion.

Agriculture grew by only 0.2 per cent, however, hampered by the unusual drought brought about by El Nino.

Inflation fell to 1.2 per cent compared with 3.9 per cent in 2014 and is projected to be at 1.9 per cent this year. The fiscal deficit narrowed to 3.7 per cent of GDP last year.

The poverty rate was slashed to 14 per cent in 2014 from 53.4 per cent in 2004.

Cambodia’s GDP growth is forecast at 7.1 per cent this year and 6.9 per cent in 2017.

Commerce Ministry targets service-export growth

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TRADE

THE COMMERCE Ministry has responded to the exports slowdown by strengthening its plan to promote service exports, in particular healthcare and wellness items, by adopting the South Korean model for their promotion.

Chantira Jimreivat Vivatrat, deputy director-general of the International Trade Promotion Department, said the department would promote businesses such as spas, hospitals and cosmetic surgery as it foresees a good opportunity to raise related revenues.

She said Thailand could be promoted as a healthcare and wellness service centre, as those businesses have been well accepted by foreigners.

According to the Commerce Ministry, exports for the service sector are worth US$53 billion (Bt1.9 trillion) a year. The government expects that export revenues from the service sector will grow beyond $55 billion this year.

Under the service-business promotion plan, the department will focus on developed markets and specific target groups such as the elderly and younger people who are greatly concerned about health and beauty.

Lalida Jivanuntapravat, director of the department’s Service Trade and Logistics Office, said that on a visit to South Korea to learn about its cosmetics industry, people there suggested Thailand could become a centre for healthcare and beauty in Asean. The South Korean government foresees Thailand as having good potential to produce goods and services to serve the beauty industry, Lalida said.

She said that to promote the growth of the sector, the department would soon invite traders and buyers from overseas for a field trip to Thai plants and a trade fair related to beauty and healthcare.

She said the department would also create a story for each product as a strategy to increase their values.

Bangladesh expo aims to boost trade, investment

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EXPO

BANGLADESH will promote more trade and investment with Asean and Thailand in particular, banking on momentum from the first-ever “Bangladesh Trade and Investment Expo” to be held in Bangkok from May 30 to June 1.

Bangladesh’s ambassador to Thailand, Saida Muna Tasneem, said that in view of the good relations with Thailand, the embassy would host the expo for the first time here.

Thai Commerce Minister Apiradi Tantraporn and Bangladeshi Commerce Minister Tofail Ahmed will co-chair the event, which will take place at Queen Sirikit National Convention Centre.

“More than 50 Bangladeshi manufacturers and service enterprises that export goods and services to Europe and North America will join the expo to seek trading and investment opportunities in Thailand and Asean,” Tasneem said, adding that Thailand has strong potential to be a gateway to other Asean countries.

At the expo, Bangladesh will present its special economic zones and bring members of the Board of Investment and the Board of Export Promotion to woo investors from Thailand.

The ambassador said Bangladesh was considering special privileges for Thai investors.

Industries in which Thailand and Bangladesh could form closer cooperation and promote joint investment are garment and clothes, pharmaceuticals and medical products, ceramic and tiles, kitchenware, furniture, leather and footwear, energy and alternative energy, electronic and electric appliances, ICT and software, silk, handicraft and home decorative items, tourism, food and beverages, frozen food, organic tea, hospital and medical services, chemical products, cosmetics, jewellery and ornaments, machinery and engineering equipment, and automobile and parts.

According to a survey last year by the Japan External Trade Organisation, Bangladesh has been rated as the country that generates the highest return on investment in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors compared with other countries in Asia and Oceania. Bangladesh offers labour at a competitive cost and the cost of energy is low, as is the cost of production. Many Thai investors could do business in the country.

So far, Thai interests have invested in 96 projects for combined initial value of US$605 million (Bt23 billion) in Bangladesh. Of these, 48 projects are 100 per cent owned by Thais, and the rest are joint ventures between Bangladeshi and Thai investors.

Thai investments are in the poultry industry, fishing, electronics, processed food, and utility development, including the Dhaka Elevated Expressway.

New FTI chief vows to lead industry forward

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Chen

Chen

CHEN NAMCHAISIRI, the new chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, yesterday pledged to usher manufacturing into the “Industry 4.0” era.

FTI is one of the country’s three flagship business organisations.

Chen, 60, is president of Asia Fibre Plc, a manufacturer of nylon-6 products.

He holds masters degrees in mechanical and industrial engineering from Stanford University in the US.

“It is my aspiration to see FTI become a principle institution for manufacturing, which contributes over 40 per cent of GDP [gross domestic product] and more than 10 per cent of the labour force, that has dignity and honour, wins the public’s confidence and is dependable for manufacturers,” he said.

His strategy for manufacturing is to enhance industrial competitiveness with efficiency, productivity and innovation; ensure sustainable development through social and environmental responsibility; strengthen manufacturing through clustering; make use of benefits from trade negotiations; develop human resources; and collaborate with the public sector to build supportive factors for manufacturers.

McKinsey & Co, a major management consulting company, has defined Industry 4.0 as the next phase in the digitisation of manufacturing, driven by four disruptions.

They are the astonishing rise in data volumes, computational power and connectivity, especially new low-power wide-area networks; emergence of analytics and business-intelligence capabilities; new forms of human-machine interaction such as touch interfaces and augmented-reality systems; and improvements in transferring digital instructions to the physical world, such as advanced robotics and 3D printing.

AIIB’s president Jin stresses desire to work with WB

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JIN LIQUN, president of the Asian Infrastructure Development Bank, has sought to ward off suspicions that the AIIB is aiming to overthrow the World Bank or the Asian Development Bank in its role as an infrastructure-related lending institution.

At the ADB’s annual conference on “New Asian-European Approa-ches on Finance and Infrastructure” on Tuesday, Jin stressed that AIIB would like to cooperate closely with both the WB and the ADB, which it considers sister institutions, in financially supporting infrastructure projects for member and non-member countries.

In his long career, he spent six years with the WB and five years at the ADB before moving on to take over as president of the AIIB, so any criticism or insult against the other two banks is also an insult against him, he said.

However, Jin was quick to emphasise that unlike the ADB, which might focus on poverty reduction, the AIIB would focus on infrastructure lending, because if infrastructure is in place, it will help tackle economic or poverty problems.

The ADB estimates that some US$800 billion (Bt28 trillion) will be required in infrastructure investment in Asia over the coming decade.

That leaves a broad scope for the AIIB and other development institutions to play a role or cooperate in filling the financing needs for countries in this region and beyond, he said.

The AIIB follows three lending principles.

Infrastructure projects that meet the bank’s requirements must have financial sustainability, since the AIIB is not a charity organisation, and must be environmentally friendly and socially acceptable.

The AIIB will also adopt international best practices in universal recruitment and universal procurement. This should adequately address criticisms that China might unload its industrial overcapacity on the AIIB’s lending projects, he added.

The ADB also reported that it leveraged a record $10.74 billion in co-financing last year.

Combined with $16.44 billion from its own resources for grants, loans and technical assistance, total assistance reached $27.17 billion, the ADB’s Office of Co-financing Operations (OCO) said in its annual report released at the bank’s annual meeting in Frankfurt.

The co-financing figure includes $6.17 billion – the highest amount ever raised through robust partnerships with bilateral and multilateral organisations, foundations, corporations and other sources of concessional funds – to support 69 investment projects and 85 technical assistance projects.

Despite global fiscal constraints, financing support from these development partners increased by 39 per cent from $4.43 billion in 2014. The remaining amount came from commercial co-financing.

“We are grateful for the contributions from our development partners,” OCO head Rune Stroem said.

“Through joint efforts and deeper collaboration, we experienced an unprecedented level of co-financing in 2015. “Together with our partners, we intend to improve delivery of programmes and projects to yield concrete and measurable results for our developing member countries.”

Govt targets 10,000 start-ups

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THE SCIENCE and Technology Ministry targets 10,000 innovative start-up businesses being established this year, thanks to the Finance Ministry’s tax incentives for such new enterprises.

“We hope the 10-year tax exemption for venture-capital and private-equity trusts that invest in innovative and start-up business operating under the 10 industry-cluster target, and the five-year tax exemption for start-ups establishing themselves this year, will challenge investors and start-ups to invest in and establish a business. The target is for 10,000 new businesses to be set up by the year’s end,” Science and Technology Minister Pichet Durongkaveroj said yesterday.

He was speaking at the “Tax incentives for Venture Capital and Innovative Start-ups” seminar, arranged by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Under the incentive for venture-capital operators and private-equity trusts, which came into effect on February 10, new entities that invest in an innovative and start-up business approved by the National Science and Technology Development Agency (NSTDA) will get a 10-year income tax exemption from the start of their investment.

Meanwhile, approved start-ups established between October 1, 2015 and the end of this year benefit from a five-year income tax exemption, effective from April 18.

To qualify for such incentives, the NSTDA requirement is for the new business to undertake innovative work in one of 47 technologies, which will be announced at the end of this month, the minister said.

The technologies must fall within the 10 industry-cluster target: the first five ‘S-curve’ businesses of next-generation automotive, smart electronics, affluent medical and wellness tourism, agriculture and biotechnology, and food for the future; and the next five S-curve business fields of robotics, aviation and logistics, biofuels and biochemicals, digital, and medical hub.

“We believe our tax-exemption policy for venture-capital and private-equity trusts, and for start-ups, provides an opportunity and a challenge that surpasses what is on offer in other countries in the region. This will drive Thailand to become a regional innovation and start-up hub,” Deputy Finance Minister Wisudhi Srisuphan told the seminar audience.

Despite the traditional survival rate of only 10 per cent among new tech start-ups, the government’s policy offers a challenge for the Kingdom to move forward from a middle-income country to an innovation-based economy in the next phase of its development, said Vorapol Socatiyanurak, member of the National Legislative Assembly and former secretary-general of the SEC.

SEC assistant secretary-general Paralee Sukonthaman said the agency would take just 15 days to approve a licence for venture-capital operators and private-equity trusts under the tax-exemption scheme.

However, since the regulations came into effect, only one private-equity trust has applied for a licence to date, she said.

Narong Sirilertworakul, executive vice president of the NSTDA, said the agency would for its part take between one and two months to approve a new tech business in which such funding entities can invest, depending on which of the 47 technologies the start-up falls under.

Apisak assures ADB governors the Thai economy is on track

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Apisak

Apisak

FINANCE MINISTER Apisak Tantivorawong has assured an Asian Development Bank forum that tourism and public spending will continue to support the Thai economy, which is expected to expand by more than 3 per cent this year.

Apisak, also a governor of the ADB, is participating in the annual meeting of ADB governors in Frankfurt at a time when uncertainties and volatility remain risks to the health of the global economy and financial markets.

Thanks to greater political stability and supportive fiscal and monetary policies, the Thai economy is rebounding and, like most economies hit hard by the global turmoil, will rely more on the domestic front to support growth, he said.

Apart from tourism and public spending, private consumption appears to be improving, he said. Both fiscal and monetary policies will continue to accommodate the economic recovery.

Thailand is working to promote its attractiveness as an investment destination, the minister said. Its business climate will be improved through tax and non-tax measures for investment this year. Incentives will also be granted to investment in industries such as next-generation automobiles, smart electronics, tourism, agriculture and biotechnology, food robotics, aviation and logistics, biofuels and biochemicals, digital and medical, which will be Thailand’s new growth engines.

“Not only are we seeking to strengthen growth, but we would also like to achieve growth with quality. For this reason, we also try to put in place policies to encourage green consumption and green investment in line with the widely recognised Sustainable Development Goals,” he said.

“In 2016, Thailand modified its excise-tax structure and, among many improvements, excise tax on automobiles is now collected based on carbon-dioxide emissions rather than engine power.

“As for public infrastructure investment, the government has been pushing forward essential investments in both hard and soft infrastructure.”

Apisak told his ADB counterparts that the Thai government had a Bt1.8-trillion investment plan for rail, road, air and waterway projects as well as intra- and inter-city transport systems.

There will be several channels for investors to take part in public investment, including the Thailand Future Fund and Public Private Partnership Fast Track. These investments will not only create jobs and boost demand, but will also help improve Thailand’s competitiveness in the long run, he said. Apisak also touched on Thailand’s new financial infrastructure, which will feature a national e-payment system and lead the country towards a fully developed electronic payment platform.

“This is a crucial step for Thailand as we aspire to progress towards a more modern economic development in which the digital economy is intertwined with the traditional economy.

“People and business will be encouraged to use electronic payments rather than cash through a reduction of the cost of paying electronically and also the expansion of access to electronic payment.