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Nielsen’s Gracenote Projects Brazil and Argentina Will Prevail at World Cup 2022

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 25, 2022

Statistical model suggests South American giants will outperform European contenders in world’s most popular football competition

Gracenote, a Nielsen company, today released its World Cup 2022 forecast which identifies Brazil and Argentina as the two favourites most likely to triumph in Qatar.

Gracenote uses a proprietary football ranking system to estimate the chances of different results for every possible World Cup 2022 match through extensive simulations, to assess the chances for each team to reach different stages of the tournament. 

Spotlight
•    According to Gracenote, Brazil is the favourite to win the 2022 World Cup with a 20% chance of lifting the trophy on December 18. Brazil is at the top of Gracenote’s World Football Ranking after losing just three times in 50 matches since being eliminated from the 2018 World Cup by Belgium. 

•    Argentina has a 16% chance of becoming world champions for the first time since 1986. Since losing to France at the 2018 World Cup, Argentina has lost four matches but the team is unbeaten for over three years, since a 2-0 defeat by Brazil in July 2019.

•    If both Brazil and Argentina win their respective groups, they will enter the knockout phase in the same half of the draw and will meet in the semi-finals. Despite this, a World Cup final between Brazil and Argentina is currently the most likely match-up on December 18 according to Gracenote simulations.

•    The leading European contenders for the trophy this year are Spain and the Netherlands, both with a 7% chance of lifting the trophy, and Belgium with a 6% chance. World Cup holders France are next according to Gracenote projections with a 5% chance of a repeat performance.

•    The most likely 16 teams to qualify for the knockout phase of World Cup 2022 are Argentina, Brazil, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Belgium, France, Uruguay, Denmark, England, Germany, Switzerland, Ecuador, Croatia, IR Iran and Mexico.

•    Morocco is the most likely African team to reach the knockout phase but begins the tournament as third favorites to progress from Group F, behind 2018 semi-finalists Belgium and finalists Croatia. 

Simon Gleave, head of analysis for Gracenote Sports said, “Based on their dominance of international football since the last World Cup, Gracenote projects Brazil and Argentina to continue to outperform competitors in the upcoming tournament. No other teams have been anywhere near as consistent over the last four years as the two South American giants and this consistency means that there is a good chance of one of them prevailing in front of a global audience of fans.”

Most likely World Cup 2022 finals 

Chance    Match        
3.2%    Brazil v Argentina   

2.4%    Brazil v Belgium        

2.3%    Belgium v Argentina        

2.0%    France v Argentina        

2.0%    Spain v Brazil        

1.9%    Denmark v Brazil

1.9%    Portugal v Brazil

1.8%    Netherlands v Brazil

1.8%    France v Brazil

1.7%    Brazil v Uruguay

The Gracenote World Football Ranking
Gracenote Sports originally developed its proprietary football ranking in 2002. The methodology based on the Elo system which is used for ranking chess players has been fine-tuned over the intervening 16 years. Every time two teams compete one “wins” points from the other depending on the result, the winning margin, who is at home and the relative strength of the two teams playing. Gracenote Sports also weighs the number of points which change hands by the importance of the competition, so World Cups and continental championships are the most important and friendlies the least important. 

So, for example, if Brazil (ranked number one) wins a friendly on the neutral ground against 30th-ranked Costa Rica 1-0, Brazil will improve its rating by relatively few points as that result is more or less expected. If however, Germany beats Brazil 7-1 in Brazil at a World Cup in Brazil, Germany’s rating will improve considerably at the expense of Brazil’s as both are strong teams and the final result as well as the winning margin are something of a surprise. 

The Gracenote World Cup Prediction
The ratings within the ranking of football teams can be used to estimate the percentage chance of each match at the 2018 World Cup being a win, draw or loss for each of the teams. These percentages are then fed into a simulation of the World Cup which we run one million times to produce estimates of the chance that each team reaches a particular stage of the competition.

During the 2022 World Cup, the simulation will be run after each day’s results to produce a new forecast which takes account of the latest information.

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Richarlison scores spectacular volley as Brazil see off Serbia

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 25, 2022

Reuters

Brazil outclassed Serbia 2-0 in their World Cup opener on Thursday (November 24) as Richarlison’s second-half goals, including a spectacular overhead kick, propelled the five-times champions to the top of Group G.

The Tottenham Hotspur forward has been in fine form when wearing the golden yellow kit of Brazil this year and he opened the scoring with an easy tap-in before doubling the lead with his acrobatic effort.
 

Tite’s decision to go with four forwards – Neymar, Vinicius Jr., Raphinha and Richarlison – in his attacking lineup paid off handsomely as the South Americans dominated the match and made Serbia work hard every time they went forward.

Vinicius used his acceleration to good effect to constantly beat his man while Neymar, playing in a free role, often found pockets of space, but a well-drilled Serbian defence kept Brazil at bay in the first half.

Serbia had been sweating over the fitness of their all-time top scorer, Aleksandar Mitrovic, but coach Dragan Stojkovic named him in the starting lineup.

Unlike Brazil’s forward line, however, which threatened from all sides, the Fulham striker found himself isolated up front with little service.

Brazil

The second half was one-way traffic as Brazil shifted through the gears, Richarlison and Neymar wasting gilt-edged chances inside the box and Alex Sandro and Casemiro sending long-range efforts against the woodwork.

The breakthrough came just after the hour from brilliant work by Neymar to find Vinicius, whose initial shot was saved by Vanja Milinkovic-Savic, but Richarlison was in the right place to tap in the rebound for his first World Cup goal.

Serbia had been playing conservatively up to that point and had no choice but to pour forward, which gave Brazil more space and the second goal from Richarlison brought the biggest roar of the night from the Brazilian contingent.

As Richarlison attempted to control a cross from Vinicius, the ball popped up over his head and he leapt up in the air to volley home a bicycle kick and seal the win for Brazil.

Switzerland are second in the group after they beat Cameroon 1-0 earlier on Thursday while Serbia are bottom on goal difference.
 

Reuters

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Ronaldo relishes ‘beautiful moment’ with new World Cup record

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 25, 2022

Reuters

Cristiano Ronaldo said he was living a “beautiful moment” after becoming the first player to score in five men’s World Cups as he helped Portugal to a 3-2 victory over Ghana on Thursday (November 24) at the start of their campaign in Qatar.

“It’s a beautiful moment in my fifth World Cup,” Ronaldo told reporters. “We won. We got off on the right foot. It’s a very important win. We know in these competitions the first match is fundamental.
 

“It’s another record too,” he said. “That makes me very proud. I am very happy for the team to have put on an excellent performance. It was difficult but we deserved to win.”

Asked about his acrimonious departure from Manchester United this week, Ronaldo said the only thing that counted was Portugal’s win. “All the rest, it doesn’t matter,” he added.

Portugal coach Fernando Santos hailed his 37 year-old captain who won a second-half penalty and converted it himself to open the scoring against Ghana.

“I think Cristiano is a phenomenon, a legend,” Santos told reporters. “In 50 years time, we will still be talking about him.”

Portugal
 

Ronaldo was substituted in the 88th minute to a rousing reception around Stadium 974 in Doha at the start of what is likely to be his last World Cup.

Santos rebuffed suggestions by his Ghanaian opposite number, Otto Addo, that the penalty decision was incorrect – given for a shove by defender, Mohammed Salisu – and should have been reviewed by U.S. referee, Ismail Elfath, via the VAR system.

“If the VAR tells the referee that he has to have a look, he will have a look,” he said. “If the VAR didn’t call over the referee it’s because they watched the images and there was nothing to see.”

Portugal now sit top of Group H and face Uruguay next who drew 0-0 with South Korea earlier on Thursday.
 

Reuters

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Explainer: The JFA Pledge for 2050 — Japan’s road map to winning the World Cup

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 24, 2022

The JFA Pledge for 2050, which lays out the path for Japan to win the football World Cup, is a deeply thought out project, and going by the current trajectory of the team, appears far more feasible than most people would believe.

The dream project was planned in 2005.

The Nation explains the origin of this ambitious project.

Project: Dream Courage to Achieve

Japan set the ball rolling in 2005, three years after hosting the 2002 World Cup. In its history, Japan had played in the World Cup only two times at that stage.

The project set a target of winning the World Cup by 2050. Japan still has 28 years to achieve the goal.

“The JFA Declaration, 2005”

“The JFA Pledge for 2015” had three key objectives to achieve in 2015:

1. Japan Football Association (JFA) becomes one of the top 10 organisations in the world
2. Create 5 million football fans and personnel (footballers, referees, and trainers)
3. Japan’s national football team becomes one of the top 10 teams in the world

“The JFA Declaration, 2050”

The pledge came with two important goals to achieve by 2050.

“By 2050, we will realise two key objectives that will allow all to share a special joy:

• The Football Family of Japan, the fans with a true love for football, will number 10 million strong.”
• We will host the Fifa World Cup in Japan, and the Japan national team will be the champion.”

This was the pledge by the JFA in 2005.

Last year, the JFA also came up with a long-term plan for 100 years to create 100 professional teams by 2092.

Former Thai footballer Witthaya Laohakul, who coached a J-League team, said that Japan was serious about making a structure for the development system before they got to play in the World Cup.

“During the 1990 World Cup in Italy, Japan Football Association sent coaches of the Japan Football League; two people from each team — the head coach and assistant coach including me — to venues in Italy, to analyse matches on how to reach the World Cup. Then, [we] came back to analyse and develop the system to reach the World Cup,” Witthaya said.

Japan has now become a regular at the World Cup having qualified seven consecutive times.

Twenty-one of Japan’s 26-man squad at the 2022 World Cup played in professional leagues in Europe.

Eight of them played in Germany’s Bundesliga before they won the first match against Germany on Wednesday.

Currently, Japan have almost achieved all their short-term goals with only the top goal — the World Cup — still to be attained.

However, considering their rapid rate of progress they might not have to wait until 2050 to hoist the World Cup.

Related stories

• Former winger McManaman backs England to win World Cup
• The greatest sports show on Earth – in numbers
• Japan stun Germany with late strikes at World Cup

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Former winger McManaman backs England to win World Cup

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 24, 2022

Former England international Steve McManaman has predicted that England have a good chance of winning the 2022 Fifa World Cup in Qatar.

England began their campaign with a thumping 6-2 win against Iran in Doha on Monday.

The strong start has given hope to several pundits that England will advance further than in the 2018 World Cup when they finished fourth.

McManaman is among those optimistic of England’s success. The former Liverpool and Real Madrid winger joined the “adidas Football Festival” at Emquartier on Tuesday where the football match was shown on a huge screen.

Speaking about “The Three Lions” to The Nation, McManaman replied, “Absolutely, why not,” when asked if he believed England would win the World Cup.

“We’ve got a great team with exciting performance, we have a great chance to win the World Cup.

“Argentina also have got a chance as this World Cup will be the last time for Lionel Messi, so he might play fully.”

McManaman signed autographs and took photographs with football fans before watching the Argentina-Saudi Arabia match, which saw a shocking 2-1 defeat for Messi’s side.

McManaman made history with Liverpool and Real Madrid, especially with the Spanish team with whom he won two La Ligas in the 2000-01 and 2002-03 seasons and two UEFA Champions League in the 1999-2000 and 2001-02 seasons.

The winger also played 33 internationals for England, including the 1998 World Cup in France.

Related stories

• The greatest sports show on Earth – in numbers
• Japan stun Germany with late strikes at World Cup
• “Where’s Messi?” Saudi fans after shock 2-1 win over Argentina

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The greatest sports show on Earth – in numbers

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 24, 2022

Fifa estimates that more than 5 billion people will tune in to the action over the next four weeks.

Here is your guide to 2022 World Cup in numbers:

Host Qatar

• US$229 billion: Cost of organising the tournament, including construction of seven new football stadiums, underground metro to connect stadiums, airports, hospitals, hotels, and malls. Russia spent only $11.6 billion as the host of the 2018 World Cup.
• $17 billion: Estimated revenue for host. Fifa earned $7.5 billion.
• 3 million: Number of tickets sold. Top 10 ticket buyers are from Qatar, US, Saudi Arabia, UK, Mexico, United Arab Emirates, Argentina, France, Brazil, and Germany.
• 2.8 million: Lowest-ever population for host country.
• 1.2 million: Stadium spectators expected to watch 64 matches, with 1,300 Qatar flights per day during the event.
• 11,572 square kilometres: Smallest country ever to host the World Cup (about 44 times smaller than Thailand).
• 28.8C (84F): Average highest temperature in November, dropping to while the number dropped to 23.8C (75F) in December. It would have been 41.1C (106F) if the World Cup had been held in June-July as usual.
• 5: Number of Asian teams in this World Cup. Qatar is the second Asian host after South Korea-Japan in 2002.

Other countries

• 209: Number of Fifa member countries/territories
• 32: National teams scheduled to play 64 matches. That number will rise to 48 at the 2026 World Cup (US-Mexico-Canada) where 80 matches will be played.
• 13 European teams: Germany, Denmark, Belgium, France, Croatia, Spain, Serbia, England, Switzerland, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, and Wales
• 8 former champions: Brazil, Germany, Italy, Argentina, France (reigning champions), Uruguay, Spain, and England
• 5 titles: Brazil is the team with the most World Cup wins followed by Germany and Italy with four wins each. Brazil is also the only team to participate in every World Cup, qualifying for the semi-finals 11 times.

Footballers

• 26: The squad quota for each team, increased from 23 in the previous World Cup as this edition is being held mid-season.
• 17: Players from Bayern Munich, the club with the most footballers in the 2022 World Cup.
• 16: Goals scored by Miroslav Klose of Germany, the World Cup’s top goalscorer after playing in 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014 editions.
• 13: Goals scored by Just Fontaine of France in 1958, the highest number in a single World Cup.
• 3: World Cups won by Pelé, the highest number won by a single footballer. Named the greatest footballer of the 20th century, he led Brazil to wins in 1958, 1962, and 1970.

Television/streaming

• 5 billion: The number of viewers as estimated by Fifa. The 2018 World Cup attracted around 3.5 billion viewers worldwide.
• $33 million/1.2 billion baht: The price Thailand paid for rights to broadcast the 2022 World Cup.

Related stories

• Fifa warns it will revoke Thailand’s World Cup broadcast rights over encryption failures
• Nation TV to screen biggest first-round clash of Fifa World Cup – Spain v Germany
• ‘Made in China’ marches to 2022 FIFA World Cup

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Japan stun Germany with late strikes at World Cup

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2022

Reuters

Late goals by Ritsu Doan and Takuma Asano gave Japan an incredible 2-1 comeback victory over Germany in the World Cup on Wednesday (November 23).

The four-times champions had looked to be cruising to victory via an Ilkay Guendogan penalty but paid a fatal price for missing chances.
 

The shock result was a repeat of their 2018 World Cup nightmare when, as defending champions, they lost their opener to Mexico and, after another defeat by South Korea, were condemned to an unheard of group-stage exit.

Germany looked in total command in the Group E clash but, with each missed chance, left the door open for Japan, who showed almost nothing in attack until a series of substitutions injected some energy in the second half.

Doan equalised in the 75th minute before Asano showed lovely control and smashed the winner in from a tight angle – causing an explosion of joy on the Japan bench.

It was a turnaround that looked scarcely believable as Japan struggled to get any foothold for most of the game.

Germany’s early dominance was rewarded when Joshua Kimmich picked out David Raum in acres of space in the box and goalkeeper Shuichi Gonda clumsily brought him down as he turned, with Guendogan dispatching the penalty in the 33rd minute.

Kai Havertz turned in what he thought was a second in first-half stoppage time and although the assistant referee was about the only person in the Khalifa International stadium not to notice he was a metre offside, VAR duly disallowed it.

There was initially little change to the pattern in the second half as Jamal Musiala shot over after a penetrating run and Guendogan clipped a post.

Gonda then made amends with four successive saves to deny Jonas Hofmann and Serge Gnabry, keeping his side in the game.

Manuel Neuer, appearing in his fourth World Cup, was also alert to save from Hiroki Sakai and did well again soon after to block from Takumi Minamino, only for fellow substitute Doan to smash in the loose ball.

Suddenly buoyed, Japan pushed on and Asano showed great strength to bring down a high free kick and hold off defender Nico Schlotterbeck and fantastic technique to hammer the ball into the smallest of spaces.

Germany launched all-out attack from then on, to no avail, and now face a potentially must-win game next against Spain.

Japan next face Costa Rica and will already be dreaming of the last 16.

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Rodtang hints at move to MMA

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2022

THE NATION

ONE Championship megastar Rodtang Jitmuangnon served punishment on a platter to Joseph Lasiri when the two world champions squared off at ONE Fight Night 4: Abbasov v Lee.

“The Iron Man” successfully defended his ONE flyweight Muay Thai world championship for the fourth time at the Singapore Indoor Stadium.

Rodtang’s victory over “The Hurricane” extended his Muay Thai and kickboxing record in the organization to 12-0 and gave him the longest winning streak in ONE Championship.
 
The Thai had much to celebrate once he exited the Circle, but he was less than impressed with Lasiri’s performance, despite the fact that the Italian-Moroccan also holds the ONE strawweight Muay Thai world championship.
 
“He [lasted] for five rounds because he’s a great runner. He should have stood up and then [brawled] with me instead of running. That’s why he could last until the fifth round,” Rodtang said.
 
“[For] his running skills, I give him a 10. For his talking skills, I give him a 10 as well. But for his fighting skills, [I’d] maybe minus [a few] points,” Rodtang said.

The 25-year-old won’t need to dwell on Lasiri for long. He now has an impressive 269-42-10 record and has proven that he is willing to take on any challenge – whether he is competing against a fellow world champion or stepping into a special rules super-fight against one of the best fighters in the world, like he did when he faced MMA GOAT Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson earlier this year at ONE X.
 
Rodtang has already set his sights on his next goal, which is to become a two-sport world champion in ONE and whatever follows from there.
 
“What I’m aiming for right now is to get the [ONE] world title for kickboxing [and become] a second-sport world champion. After that, I’m going to go all the way in MMA and then challenge whoever the champion is at that time. It’s coming soon as a future fight for sure,” he said.
 
Up next, don’t miss ONE Fight Night 5: De Ridder v Malykhin on Saturday, 3 December, at the Mall of Asia Arena, Manila. Tickets can be purchased at https://smtickets.com/events/view/11438.

THE NATION

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“Where’s Messi?” Saudi fans after shock 2-1 win over Argentina

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2022

Reuters

Exuberant Saudi Arabia fans spilled out of Lusail Stadium in song and dance after their side defeated the Goliath of their group, Argentina, in their opening 2022 World Cup match on Tuesday (November 22).

The win is already being called one of the biggest shock upsets in World Cup history as the Saudis topped Lionel Messi and company 2-1.

Saudi Arabia fans shouted, “where’s Messi” and “they can’t look us in the eye,” as they made their way out of the stadium and into the streets of the city of Lusail, immediately north of the capital Doha.

Argentina fans, on the other hand, were in a state of disbelief as they turned their attention to the remaining matches in the group phase against Mexico and Poland.

Saudi Arabia fans celebrate in Souq Waqif after the match between Saudia Arabia and Argentina

On his fifth and final quest for the only major trophy to elude him, the 35-year-old Messi scored a 10th minute penalty in a dominant first half display where he and Lautaro Martinez also had three goals disallowed for offside.

Argentina
 

But Saudi Arabia, the second-lowest ranked team in the tournament after Ghana, threw caution to the wind at the start of the second half, charging at Argentina’s defence in front of a frenzied 88,012 crowd.

Saleh Al-Shehri squeezed in a low shot in the 48th minute while Salem Al-Dawsari curled in a scorching strike from the edge of the penalty area in the 53rd minute to leave Argentina and Messi looking utterly shell-shocked in the Group C opener.

Saudi Arabia minister of sports Prince Abdulaziz bin Turki celebrates Saudi Football Federation/Handout

The result revived old question marks over Argentina’s defence and broke their amazing 36-match undefeated run. That stopped them from matching the international record of 37 games unbeaten held by Italy.

It also marred Messi’s achievement of becoming the first Argentine to score in four World Cups on his 20th appearance in the tournament. Only Maradona has played more games for Argentina at the World Cup, 21 in all.

Fans in Riyadh watch Argentina v Saudi Arabia – Marsool Park Stadium, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia – November 22, 2022 Saudi Arabia fans are pictured with flags during the match

Reuters

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Ronaldo to leave Manchester United after criticism of club

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2022

THE NATION

Manchester United forward Cristiano Ronaldo will leave with immediate effect, the Premier League team said on Tuesday (November 21), marking a bitter end to the Portugal captain’s second spell at Old Trafford after he said he felt betrayed by the club.

An explosive interview with TalkTV this month – in which Ronaldo also said he did not respect manager Erik ten Hag – had put him on shaky ground at the club he rejoined in August 2021 after winning eight major trophies with them from 2003-2009.
 

United said last week they would address Ronaldo’s comments only after establishing the complete facts and added last Friday (November 18) that they had initiated “appropriate steps” in response.

“Cristiano Ronaldo is to leave Manchester United by mutual agreement, with immediate effect. The club thanks him for his immense contribution across two spells at Old Trafford, scoring 145 goals in 346 appearances, and wishes him and his family well for the future,” United said in a statement.

“Everyone at United remains focused on continuing the team’s progress under Ten Hag and working together to deliver success on the pitch.”

Last month, Ten Hag said Ronaldo had refused to come on as a substitute against Premier League rivals Tottenham Hotspur, when the forward walked down the tunnel with a few minutes of the game remaining after being put on the bench.

The 37-year-old was then not part of the squad that faced Chelsea the following Saturday before returning to the fold.

Ronaldo later said in the interview he regretted leaving early against Spurs but added his decision to walk off came because he felt “provoked” by Ten Hag.

Ronaldo said in a statement on Tuesday that he loved the club and the fans.

“… That will never ever change,” he added. “However, it feels like the right time for me to seek a new challenge. I wish the team every success for the remainder of the season and for the future.”

THE NATION