Fewer updates for popular gasoline-powered models may hurt market share, underscoring the quandary the industry faces as companies try to fund an electric-focused future. The billions spent on plug-in vehicles that typically lose money — and that no one besides Tesla has sold in large numbers — takes investment dollars away from their bread-and-butter gas burners at a time when the global pandemic has hurt sales.

“The very active shift GM is making shows the confidence that they have to move where the market is going,” said BofA analyst John Murphy on a conference call. “It may result in lost market share.”

Over the next four years, Toyota and Fiat Chrysler will refresh less than 60% of their current sales volume. That turnover ratio belies the cadence of product updates, which in Toyota’s case reflects a lull after a spurt of new models in the past few years, Murphy said. Honda Motor Co. topped the list with plans to refresh 91% of current models and Korean brands Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Motors Corp. are set to revamp 90%. Ford Motor Co. was third at 83%.

GM will move 30% of its vehicles to electric-motor and battery power, up from just one U.S. model today: the Chevrolet Bolt. It plans to launch two more next year, the Cadillac Lyriq crossover SUV and a Hummer pickup truck. Both vehicles likely will sell for more than $50,000, which is what it takes to make money on electric models, Murphy said. But the bigger price tag means lower sales volume.

Making it tougher are the Covid-19 shutdowns, which will reduce sales in North America by 25% this year to 15.2 million vehicles and trigger a 20% drop globally to 71.4 million, the report said. Deliveries should recover next year to almost 80 million.

Murphy said GM’s strategy could be a game changer, giving the company a leadership position as consumers shift to electric vehicles. That’s GM’s goal, said company spokesman Jim Cain, who contests the notion it will cost GM market share. “We are very confident in our plan,” he said.

One change that could help GM bridge the gap in its transition to EVs is its recent launch of several new crossover SUVs and its all-new Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra pickups. Later this year, the new Chevy Tahoe and GM Yukon large SUVs come to market. All of those have gasoline engines — and fat profit margins.

“They can ride the profit from those vehicles,” Murphy said.

As part of efforts to assist to cash-strapped customers, Toyota is relaxing auto-loan payment deadlines and offering used rental cars instead of new ones, Japan sales chief Yasuhiko Sato said at the meeting.

The pandemic has dented profits as carmakers around the world shutter showrooms and factories, although they have started to reopen gradually. Toyota and other automakers have sought loans and credit lines from banks, saying that they will keep investing in development. Although Japan has lifted its state of emergency, the outbreak has damaged the business of many smaller auto-industry players, with one Toyota supplier filing for bankruptcy last week.

“If we don’t win, we wouldn’t be able to support this industry and country,” Toyoda said. “We are different today from what we were during the financial crisis.”

Japan’s biggest automaker won’t change its plan to produce 3 million cars annually in the country, according to Mitsuru Kawai, Toyota’s chief human resources officer. The company has halted some domestic factories from April through June.

Toyota has warned profit will tumble 80% to a nine-year low and targeted operating profit of 500 billion yen ($4.65 billion) for the year through March. The target is not a plan, but rather a minimum standard that it’ll have to meet, said Toyoda.

At the meeting held at Toyota’s headquarters in Nagoya, the company took precautionary measures to contain the virus’s spread. Staff checked temperatures of attendees, set up transparent partitions in front of speakers, and reduced the number of seats to about a third.

Some 360 shareholders joined the meeting, far less than the previous meeting where more than 5,500 people attended, after the automaker asked shareholders not to come. The gathering ended after an hour and twenty minutes, the shortest annual shareholder meeting since 2000.

The move would allow Diess to focus on the group while a new leadership at the biggest division could redouble efforts to tackle production problems that have affected the flagship Golf model and the electric ID.3 hatchback, said the people, who asked not to be identified as the deliberations are confidential and a decision hasn’t been made yet.

A spokesman for Volkswagen’s supervisory board declined to comment. The 20-member body includes representatives of the largest shareholders as well as labor officials.

Losing direct responsibility for the VW brand would mark a setback for Diess. The CEO is wrestling with internal tensions over concerns the two models might face greater difficulties as he tries to contain the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic while weighing broader strategic decisions.

The Golf output is important to ensure sufficient utilization of Volkswagen’s largest factory in Wolfsburg, Germany, and the ID.3 electric car is key to meeting stricter European emission rules.

The other joint venture partners are Beijing SinoHytec, Dongfeng and Guangzhou Automobile, the companies said Friday. The new Beijing-based entity, which will be 65% owned by Toyota, will be called United Fuel Cell System R&D and start with an initial investment of 5 billion yen ($46 million).

Toyota has been one of the biggest backers of fuel cells among global automakers, betting that they can become a source of energy for electric vehicles on par or even better than batteries. The new partnership underscores Toyota’s continued interest in fuel cells, especially for commercial applications such as buses and trucks. Annual sales of fuel cells are on track to reach 1 million vehicles by 2035, according to BloomberNEF, driven by growth of buses and commercial vehicles mainly in China, Korea, Japan and Europe.

“China is really trying to commit to fuel cells,” said Seiji Sugiura, an analyst at Tokyo Tokai.

The six companies will try to develop low-cost fuel cell systems while improving drive performance, fuel efficiency and durability, they said in a statement. FAW and Dongfeng are two of three central government-owned automaking groups in China, and Toyota has already partnered with Guangzhou Auto and China FAW to develop fuel cell vehicles. Beijing Auto and GAC are partners with foreign carmakers including Daimler and Honda.

Despite the backing of Toyota and other industry giants touting the benefits of fuel-cell vehicles — they refuel faster and are more suitable for driving long distances than all-electric vehicles — the technology hasn’t caught on due its expensive price tag. Price of hydrogen remains higher than other transport fuels, and there hasn’t been enough hydrogen refueling infrastructure, according to BNEF. Toyota has also recently put more resources into battery development.

China has the muscle to change the landscape should it make hydrogen-powered vehicles a national priority. The world’s biggest car market is set to embrace hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles in the same way that it did EVs, Wan Gang, who’s been called the father of China’s electric-car movement, said last year.

The government wants 1 million fuel-cell vehicles on the roads in a decade and is seeding that plan with hundreds of millions of yuan to spur research and development, and to subsidize purchases. And, as seen with EVs, a slew of startups and established companies are trying to capitalize.

“The fuel-cell electric vehicle market, primarily for commercial vehicles, is growing at a pace not seen anywhere else in the world,” Toyota said in the statement.

BNEF tracked more than $17 billion worth of announced investments in the industry through 2023. One of the largest is China National Heavy Duty Truck Group’s plan to spend $7.6 billion to manufacture fuel-cell vehicles in Shandong province on the east coast.

Even so, China still has a long way to go. The number of fuel-cell vehicles on the road –both passenger and commercial — will only reach 5,000 units next year, according to government projections.

The plan includes the politically delicate task of trimming 4,600 positions in France, or about 10% of the carmaker’s total in its home country, through voluntary retirement and retraining, according to a statement Friday. More than 10,000 further jobs will be scrapped in the rest of the world, pruning a global workforce of about 180,000 people.

The measures round off a decisive week for Renault and its Japanese partners Nissan Motor Co. and Mitsubishi Motors Corp., drawing a line under a two-decade era of aggressive expansion under the alliance’s former leader, Carlos Ghosn, who was arrested in late 2018. A slump in consumer demand and factory shutdowns to slow the Covid-19 pandemic have forced their hand, with shrinking head counts and production cuts now a priority.

“We have spent and invested too much and will now come back to our base,” Renault Acting Chief Executive Officer Clotilde Delbos said on a call with analysts. “We’re facing reality, not looking to be on top of the world.”

The company will turn its focus to profitability and away from the race for volumes at any cost, she said, citing a successful revamp at crosstown rival PSA Group, which makes Peugeot and Citroen brands. Renault’s poor 2019 results provided a necessary wake up call that shocked employees into changing their mind-set and working more closely with Japanese partners, she added. Under Ghosn, Renault had a sales target of 5 million sales annually by 2022, which has since been abandoned.

To achieve savings of more than 2 billion euros ($2.2 billion) over three years, Renault’s plan will cost about 1.2 billion euros to implement. While it “may not be enough” it can be put in place quickly, Delbos said.

The carmaker flagged possible adjustments to capacity in Russia, but held off on decisions about the future of six sites in France amid political furor and union opposition. Instead, talks will begin on various scenarios including phasing out car assembly at the Flins plant, which builds the Zoe model, and Dieppe, where the Alpine A110 sports car is assembled.

The shares declined 3.9% to 21.06 euros as of 10:10 a.m. in Paris, extending a decline for the year to more than 50%.

The European car industry is feeling particular hurt from the pandemic crisis, with the continent struggling with overcapacity before the virus hit. Fiat is asking for a $6.9 billion state-backed loan to save its Italian operations and Volkswagen AG is facing pressure from labor groups worried about job cuts. In Spain, Nissan is contending with angry workers protesting a plan to close a plant in Barcelona, underscoring the challenges of downsizing the industry.

Renault has been at the center of a political maelstrom in recent weeks over its plans to downsize in France while at the same time seeking a state-backed loan of 5 billion euros to bolster reserves.

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire warned Thursday he wouldn’t sign the check until he had examined the company’s strategy “site by site, job by job,” with closures being “a last resort.” At the same time, he said Renault’s manufacturing capacity is roughly three times what’s needed this year. Delbos said the credit facility has been agreed and would be available within days.

Highlights from the plan:

– Global production capacity to drop to 3.3 million vehicles by 2024 from 4 million in 2019 to save about 650 million euros

– Possible rationalization of worldwide gearbox making

– Generating savings from the engineering division of about 800 million euros

– Marketing, support savings of 700 million euros

– New focus on electric, commercial vehicles in France

The government is Renault’s most powerful shareholder and has representation on its board. In exchange for the auto-industry stimulus package, the state has called for manufacturers to commit to keeping production and research in France. Renault and PSA have pledged to increase local production of electrified vehicles and components.

“If we do nothing, Renault is in danger,” Le Maire has said. While pledging to stand by the company, he has urged the automaker not to close the Flins factory and give careful consideration to the situation at Maubeuge and Douai.

Renault said Friday it will consult unions on plans to transfer Choisy-le-Roi activities to Flins, where recycling could be developed. The company pledged to study a reconversion of Dieppe, the future of Caudan (Fonderie de Bretagne) and examine Maubeuge and Douai.

To qualify for the government’s support, Renault scrapped its dividend. It burned through 5.5 billion euros in the first quarter, bringing its liquidity down to 10.3 billion euros at the end of March. Renault’s incoming CEO, Luca de Meo, is scheduled to take the helm in July and Delbos said he would likely present a new strategy around year-end.

While she dismissed talk of any major overhaul in the lineup, those decisions would be made by him, she said.

Meanwhile, it said, adjustments will be made in associated operations, such as engine assembly and stamping.

The government extended the state of emergency until the end of June and is opening up the country in stages to continue mitigating the Covid-19 pandemic. It has also advised businesses to continue keeping the number of staff at workplaces to the minimum.

Nissan said it will continue following this advice and government guidelines to ensure the wellbeing of customers, employees and community. This includes limiting the number of workers at all facilities and implementing health and safety measures.

“Our goal is to resume normal business operations as soon as possible in a phased approach, but ensuring the safety and wellbeing of all our employees, their families and Thai society is our priority right now given the Covid-19 pandemic,” said Ramesh Narasimhan, president of Nissan in Thailand.

The company has already implemented an extensive work-from-home policy for office employees as part of the wider effort to curb the spread of the virus.

Nissan said it is confident that it has a sufficient supply of vehicles to meet local demands. The automaker’s dealership network nationwide is open and ready to tend to customers.

The automaker recently launched its “Care for You” programme designed to support its customers and ensure their safety during the pandemic. Under the programme, customers will be offered safe and convenient test drive options, including at their own homes, vehicle pickup services and promotions at dealers and service centres.

Nissan is also taking additional steps to implement several key preventive measures for Covid-19 at its showrooms and service centres nationwide. These include disinfecting the service centre every 30 minutes; checking the temperature of all employees and customers as they enter the dealership, ensuring that staff wear face masks at all times, providing alcohol gel throughout the premises, and consistently disinfecting key vehicle touchpoints like the steering wheel, gear shift, seats, door handles, and front console panels.

Nissan said it will continue prioritising the safety of its employees, partners and customers while following the government’s guidelines.

The result, the first loss in a decade and the biggest in 20 years, includes restructuring and impairment charges of 603 billion yen for the year that ended in March, the Yokohama-based company said Thursday. The four-year plan calls for production to be cut by 20% to about 5.4 million vehicles a year, and includes the closing of Nissan’s Barcelona plant in addition to one it is shuttering in Indonesia.

The reorganization is part of a broader push by Nissan and alliance partners Renault and Mitsubishi Motors to focus on costs and profitability to weather a collapse in car demand due to the coronavirus pandemic. Nissan has been in turmoil since the November 2018 arrest of former Chairman Carlos Ghosn, who had pushed for volume growth. This all comes as the industry is being disrupted by the shift to electric vehicles and autonomous driving.

“The numbers might leave a negative impression, but they are taking drastic steps and that’s worth noting,” said Naoki Fujiwara, chief fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management Co. “In the post-corona era, you won’t be able to survive unless you improve your efficiency.”

Sales for the fiscal year through March fell 15% to 9.9 trillion yen. Nissan didn’t issue an earnings outlook for the current period, citing uncertainty over the business because of the pandemic.

Shares of Nissan have slumped 29% this year, out-pacing the declines by Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. Underscoring the challenges facing Nissan, the automaker said output fell 62% in April as the pandemic continued to pummel the industry.

“I will do everything I can to return Nissan to a growth path,” Chief Executive Officer Makoto Uchida said at a news conference, adding that he other senior managers are taking voluntary pay cuts.

The automaker will cut the number of models to less than 55 from the current 69, with a plan to introduce 12 new vehicles in the next 18 months. The most anticipated new model is the Rogue sport-utility vehicle for the U.S.

As part of the three-way alliance, Nissan is focusing on its main markets of the U.S., Japan and China. Among the three regions, China is a bright spot as its economy sputters back to life after shutting down in the early days of the outbreak. Nissan’s sales volume in China rose 1.1% to 122,846 vehicles in April, helping it claw back some market share.

Nissan said it has “sufficient liquidity to steer through this challenging business environment,” with cash and cash equivalents of 1.5 trillion yen and access to about 1.3 trillion yen in credit.

Koji Endo, an analyst at SBI Securities Co. in Tokyo, said the coming year is a critical period, predicting that the company’s losses “will surge this year.”

“Nissan will likely have tremendous losses before its plan will have an effect,” Endo said. “It needs to think about how it’s going to get it through.”

Nissan’s loss will have a negative impact of 3.57 billion euros ($3.9 billion) for Renault, the French carmaker said in a statement. Alliance partner Renault is Nissan’s biggest shareholder, with a 43% stake.

Nissan, Renault and Mitsubishi Motors now need each other more than ever. On Wednesday, they announced an effort to work more closely, aiming to save as much as 40% in jointly developing vehicles. Nissan will take the lead on autonomous driving, Renault on the body of electric cars and some electric powertrains while Mitsubishi Motors will work on plug-in hybrids, they said.

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The measures will help deliver savings of as much as 40% in model investments for jointly developed vehicles, the companies said Wednesday. Nissan will take the lead on autonomous driving, Renault on the body of electric cars and some electric powertrains while Mitsubishi Motors will work on plug-in hybrids, they said.

Renault, Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors need each other more than ever after the global coronavirus pandemic forced automakers to shutter showrooms and factories. The industry is also facing a once-in-a-generation shift to electric vehicles and autonomous driving that will require significant investment. After coming under pressure last year, the partnership is seeking a fresh start, backed by new measures at the companies to improve profitability.

“The new model focuses on efficiency and competitiveness, rather than on volumes,” Jean-Dominique Senard, chairman of the alliance operating board and Renault, said at a news conference.

That marks a change from an emphasis on growth during the era of Carlos Ghosn, who built the alliance and led it for almost two decades before his arrest in late 2018. In the past, the partnership focused “too much on expansion,” said Osamu Masuko, chairman of Mitsubishi.

Any plans for a merger between Renault and Nissan are also off the table, according to Senard. “We are moving forward within the current framework,” he said. Ghosn had pressed to make the alliance irreversible.

Renault shares surged as much as 20%, the most on record, and were up 18% at 22.53 euros by 1:37 p.m. in Paris trading. Even after the gain, shares remain 47% lower than at the start of the year. Nissan advanced 5.5% and Mitsubishi Motors climbed 5.4% in Tokyo.

“Renault has provided relief that its Nissan and Mitsubishi alliance will deepen as global scale remains crucial amid the near-term challenge of a global auto-demand slump and the high costs associated with the transition to EVs,” said Michael Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence’s senior auto industry analyst, in a note.

Nissan will lead efforts in China, North America and Japan, while Renault will focus on Europe, Russia, South America and North Africa. Mitsubishi will continue its efforts in Southeast Asia, where it already has a strong footprint.

In designating the so-called leaders and followers for projects, the partners are tackling one of the most prickly issues they have faced during the past decades: infighting and power struggles between French and Japanese engineering teams. The goal is to have close to half of the car models in the alliance produced under the new operating model by 2025, they said.

One example Senard provided is Brazil, where the companies use four manufacturing platforms to produce six models. Under the plan, this will be distilled down to one platform for seven models.

In Europe, Renault will lead on commercial vehicles, smaller SUVs and compacts while Nissan will oversee bigger SUVs and take the global lead in this area in five years.

“All members of the alliance will have access to all the key technologies,” Senard said. He and other top managers of the three car companies outlined the plan during an online press conference. They mostly avoided giving details about any specific plant closures, plans that could be revealed in coming days by Renault and Nissan separately.

The alliance came under intense strain following Ghosn’s departure as the circumstances around his sudden arrest fueled mutual suspicion and management turmoil. Some analysts question whether the efforts to right the partnership are too little too late.

“After 21 years, what have they been up to?” said Koji Endo, an analyst at SBI Securities in Tokyo. “Saying that it will be better in 2022 through 2024 is not convincing.”

Renault is preparing to unveil on Friday a cost-cutting plan worth 2 billion euros ($2.2 billion) over three years that is expected to include site closures in France and staff reductions. The carmaker has been caught in a political maelstrom this week due to union opposition to shutting factories and talks with the government, its most powerful shareholder, on a 5 billion-euro state-backed loan.

The company is considering shutting an engine and transmission factory in Choisy-le-Roi, France, and mulling the future of four other production sites, Franck Daout, spokesman for the CFDT union, said by phone Tuesday following meetings with Senard and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire. These include Flins, iron foundry Fonderie de Bretagne, a factory in Dieppe and its Maubeuge site.

Le Maire on Tuesday said Flins shouldn’t be closed and any plans for Maubeuge need to be closely examined, while acknowledging the company’s manufacturing capacity is twice production levels.

Clotilde Delbos, the interim chief executive officer, said it’s “too early” to give details on the future manufacturing footprint in Europe, dodging the question ahead of the announcement of Renault’s cost-cutting program.

Nissan is due to announce its own restructuring plan on Thursday that will cut costs by 300 billion yen ($2.8 billion) and phase out the Datsun brand, a person with knowledge of the matter has said.

Nissan has struggled since Ghosn’s arrest with an aging car lineup and management paralysis denting its outlook. The automaker warned last month it expects to post a loss for the latest fiscal year through March. The Yokohama-based company also plans to shut down one production line in addition to the recently closed operation in Indonesia and reach the reduced spending target this year by cutting marketing, research and other costs, the person said.

Although Nissan is forecasting a 12% decline in sales to 10.2 trillion yen for the just-ended fiscal year, the new mid-term plan calls for a return to revenue of 11.5 trillion yen within three years, with fixed costs kept at reduced levels, the person said.

Though new-vehicle sales are down 47% year-over-year, and rental, commercial, and government fleet purchases have fallen 70% over the same period, too, the auto industry has enjoyed small amount of good news. Average incentive spending reached $4,296 per vehicle in April, according to Cox Automotive, up 7% from March and up 26% year-over-year. Sales of classic cars are booming. Factories across Europe and the U.S. have begun to reopen.

So have dealerships, though they are reeling from the loss of 265,000 jobs, according to Cox Automotive. Take Porsche Beverly Hills, where Sascha Glaeser works as director of customer experience and VIP sales. “We opened again on Friday, and customers are coming into the dealership,” he said by phone. “For me, I’m trying to do everything from home. When I do go in, we have masks on. We try to keep as much distance as possible.”

The outbreak has significantly changed how we think about-and shop for-the cars in our lives. While some changes are temporary, others are most likely permanent.

To better learn how the car-buying experience will evolve through covid-19-and how best to navigate it-I spoke with experts from research firms, car dealerships, and even our own Bloomberg Automotive Intelligence team. They highlighted a host of issues that will factor in to the new world of car buying, including e-commerce, independent mechanics’ shops, and strict franchise laws. Below are their answers to the most pressing questions about the future of acquiring vehicles.

– Will social distancing kill the car dealership?

The shorter answer is no, it won’t. But it has sped up changes that were already in motion before the covid-19 pandemic hit.

“We know that consumers will continue to be concerned about social distancing,” says Stephanie Brinley, principal automotive analyst at research firm IHS Markit. “But what we really see is that there were trends toward making car buying an easier process already happening before we started going into [the pandemic].”

The old-fashioned handshake deal will be dead. But the prevalence of smaller showrooms, tactical, more localized marketing, pre-approved financing, and online sales and insurance transactions is likely to grow.

Jack Gillis, executive director of the Consumer Federation of America, says social distancing is quickly forcing car dealers to alter their entire sales strategy. Some dealers are changing compensation plans, for instance, so sales representatives get paid for how many cars they sell, not necessarily the value sold. This removes a lot of pressure on the sales floor-for everyone.

“One of the biggest challenges for a consumer when buying a car is matching wits with a seasoned professional in the showroom-this is a person trained to get as much money as they can for each car,” he says. “These are trained negotiators who do this, day in and day out. Consumers are like lambs being led in to slaughter when we go into a showroom.”

In many cases, Gillis says, the car-buying process becomes so frustrating and anxiety-laden that consumers give up.

“By the end of it, we’ll do anything to just get out of there and just get our car,” he says. “People sign on the bottom line for things they don’t really need-like rust proofing and special mats and paint sealant-just to get away.”

Coronavirus will change this by winnowing out the worst dealerships and demanding efficiency and better service in others. The good news for consumers, he says, is that we won’t be going back to this condition as normal-ever.

– Well, how good are dealerships at doing socially distanced transactions?

It depends on where you are. Some dealerships are better at it than others. They’ve got their work cut out for them: According to Cox Automotive, some 60% of consumers would rather not visit a car dealership at all.

“Are car dealerships future-proof? No, no they’re not,” says Glaeser.

Plastic wraps on steering wheels and seats, driveway drop-offs for test drives, and personalized new-car deliveries are all on the table for dealerships motivated to support safety-sensitive customers. The points of contact between consumers and salespeople should be minimized, with one person, rather than two or three or five, devoted to each customer. There will be much more one-one-one attention for customers who engage with sales people, especially at higher-end brands, predicts Glaeser. (The business case for that is simple: Get a consumer in a cozy, comfortable, safe, and intimate environment, and they’re more likely to spend money.) In Los Angeles, Glaeser is doing selective, masked one-on-one test drives with customers from their homes in the Pacific Palisades.

“The best dealers we see are taking social distancing very seriously,” says Jeremy Anspach, chief executive officer of Purecars, an automotive digital marketing firm. “When you think about all the cars in the showroom and the spacing, compared to a box retailer or a grocery store, the idea of social distancing is quite easy.”

That said, there will be culling. Some automakers have too many dealerships dotting the country; this has led to some splintering business profits that will be exacerbated during and after the pandemic, says Kevin Tynan, director of automotive research for Bloomberg Intelligence.

Exhibit A: Fiat Chrysler has 10,271 dealerships in the U.S. while Toyota has 1,400, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Last year, the average Chrysler dealer sold 656 units, while the average Toyota dealer sold 1,700. Assuming an industry average of 5% margin profit for each sale, it’s easy to see which dealers fared better.

“Toyota doesn’t have the footprint, but they have a much healthier base because [each dealer] is getting theirs,” explains Tynan. “The domestic guys look at the numbers and would likely say we have too many of these damn things. They’re eating each other. Politically, of course, they won’t say, ‘We would just love to kill some dealerships.'”

The pandemic may do it for them.

– Is this the death of the test-drive?

Not yet. Historically, at most dealerships, the rule was that you had to take the car out with a sales representative. All the technology in modern cars made this essential; it’s better to learn how to use the Bluetooth from a person than an app. Special friends of the dealership and VIP clients could take the car for a spin alone, after handing over driver’s license and insurance information.

Expect to see more of that post-covid-19.

“Many of the problems that a consumer has with a car could be sussed out with one good, long test drive-preferably without the sales rep,” says Gillis. “You’ve got to kick the tires to make sure you like the car. That concept of touching it, feeling it, looking at it, sitting in it, driving it is very ingrained in the way we buy cars.”

The test drive should last at least an hour. Park it in your driveway, and pull out. Steer it into your garage. Take it on the highway. Drive it on your normal errands route. You’ll end up observing the things that could become problems later, such as blind spots, ambient road noise at high or low speeds, a too-small (or too large) trunk. You may just decide you don’t like the car’s color in your driveway.

– What about online sales? Will those increase?

Yes. Online car sales in 2019 made up 10% to 15% of the total U.S. vehicle market, according to research firm Autopia. But if you listen to the experts, buying a car online won’t be the first choice for most car shoppers, even after covid-19.

Dealers are likely to update and improve their websites. And they’ll probably respond to emailed inquiries faster. But the average transaction price of a new car is $35,000, and $21,000 for a used car. It’s still the largest payment you’re likely to make for something other than your home. For most people, it’s “inconceivable” to purchase something of that value without seeing it first, says Tynan.

“I think e-commerce will go up, but it was going up anyway,” he says, adding that this also has to do with getting the best deal possible, which is less likely via impersonal transaction online. (Online sales were less than 10% of total domestic car sales just three years ago.) “We may do some more online research first, but no dealer is going to give you their best deal through email. I just don’t see that happening.”

Consumers can use that to advantage. Do even more research online, and cross-shop from dealer to dealer before you head to the dealership for that (socially distanced) test drive.

“There will be tremendous competition over the next six months because the industry is suffering,” Gillis says. “Dealers have a huge incentive to offer the very best prices. And if you combine that incentive with your ability to shop online from dealer to dealer, you can end up getting a great car and a great value.”

That said, do companies already doing online sales, such as Carvana, have an edge in the new generation of car buying?

Yes and no.

When it debuted in 2013, Carvana leapfrogged the franchised dealer by allowing consumers to buy cars online, which forced franchised dealers to elevate service and allow customers to complete transactions in any number of ways. In 2018 Carvana sold 100,000 cars; last year it sold 177,549. (Revenue in 2019 reached $3.94 billion, an increase of 101%, year-over-year.) Company chief Ernie Garcia has said he thinks annual sales can reach 2 million vehicles.

The company’s current and best advantage is its centralized inventory and its relatively easy seven-day-return policy. Most local car dealerships can’t compete with that from a logistical point alone. But Carvana’s business model is difficult to scale to a truly national scale, and this will keep it from totally replacing traditional dealers, which are too locally focused to sell online across a national platform.

“It’s a niche thing,” Tynan says.

If you do decide buy a car online, the most essential thing you must do is fully understand the return policy.

– Will there be a different future for the purchase of a luxury car?

Yes. The new normal for car buying may very well fall along the line between wealthy and average.

“The Carvana-type of online buyer is that kind of person who buys on Amazon. It’s a digital transaction,” says Anspach. The franchise dealer is still the trusted choice of consumers who want an experience for a larger purchase. Such automakers as Lamborghini, Ferrari, Bentley, and Rolls-Royce have long catered to that impulse with exclusive ateliers and customization shops that are separate from dealerships.

“I envision that this type of luxurious, intimate environment could be a good model for the future,” says Glaeser. “For exclusive and high-end cars, it would be a boutique or salon that will handle customization, selection of colors and textiles and leathers, and all of that for the client. It will be very safe, very one-on-one.”

– Will consumers stop buying cars as often as they used to?

It’s likely. There may be some permanent tapering, even after the primary concerns of food, shelter, and health-which are foremost in mind during a pandemic-are allayed. The average age of the car on the road today in America is 11 years; expect that number to rise, says Gillis.

“There’s a tremendous lack of demand, not pent-up demand,” he says. “Consumers are thinking: ‘You know, maybe I really don’t need a new car right now. My car is fine, it’s running well. I’m rarely using it. I don’t feel this urgency to go out and buy a new car.'”

Not to mention that regulations require less driving, anyway. Travel on all roads and streets declined by 18.6% (50.6 billion fewer vehicle miles) for March 2020, compared with March 2019, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation. Personal travel around the country by car fell 46% year-on-year during the week ending April 17, according to Inrix surveys. We are driving far less, slashing the urgency to buy a new car.

“Consumers are going to realize they don’t need to replace their cars so frequently, and we are going to become used to keeping our cars longer,” he says. “Over time, that will reduce this sort of perpetual need to replace your car every three years. Buyer behavior is going to change, so the whole industry is going to change dramatically.”

– Is home delivery going to stick around?

It depends on your dealer. But for most dealers, the time sales reps would spend dropping off and picking up cars to individual consumers’ houses for test drives or deliveries is not cost-effective.

“Margins at most dealers are under 5%, so you’re on a razor-thin margin, anyway,” Tynan says. “For used cars, the margin is about 7.5%. And the closing rate of driving a car to someone’s house for a test drive isn’t much higher than not. So how are you going to incur these additional [delivery] costs?”

On the other hand, Anspach says some post-Covid-19 dealers will be more willing than ever to service customers, however they want to be serviced.

“Whether it’s pickup and drop off-for a lot of dealers it’ll be: ‘The car will be here and running. I’ll text you when we are on our way. You don’t have to even speak to me,'” he says.

– How will the auto industry recover from this?

In a word: trucks.

“A big part of the recovery, and we did see this in April, is that from the manufacturer to the retail channel to the dealer, the key is sellable products-and sellable products are trucks,” Tynan says. “If you’re going to dig out of this, you’re going to get your best shovel. And it’s just simply trucks.”

Indeed, according to Bloomberg Intelligence, 75% of autos sold in April in the U.S. were light trucks (which includes SUVs). Hyundai, for one, has taken advantage of the numbers: By April, Hyundai had increased its truck mix by 11 percentage points over 2019, up to 54% trucks from 43% trucks, and adding such models as the Venue crossover.

“When you think about the revenue and the profit side of the business, that’s where you have to live,” says Tynan. “You want to do more with less. Volume is going to be beat up for a while, so you have to have the higher revenue contribution and the higher profit contribution. That’s just the way it’s going to be, so at the retail level, that’s the mindset: Give me trucks.”

Elsewhere, automakers must simply move forward with projects already underway.

“When people are working from home, there’s only so much you can do to help something move forward-but they’re still moving forward,” says Brinley. “The anticipation is that it’s fundamentally temporary. It’s maybe just going to be longer than we expected.”