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Senior GOP lawmakers say Biden should get briefings

InternationalNov 13. 2020Joe Biden 

By The Washington Post
Seung Min Kim, Josh Dawsey, Matt Viser, Jon Swaine

WILMINGTON, Del. – President-elect Joe Biden began seeing more support, if indirectly, from Republicans on Thursday as senior GOP lawmakers called for him to receive classified briefings even as the Trump administration continued to bar a formal transition.

Trump officials prolonged that blockade even though in private top campaign aides were candidly telling President Donald Trump that his prospects of winning reelection were an uphill battle, according to sources close to the discussions who spoke on the condition of anonymity to reflect private conversations. His campaign, meantime, was scrambling to form a coherent legal strategy.

Taken together, those elements underscored a reality that Biden has accepted but one that Trump and key Republican officials haven’t: The current president is unlikely to overturn enough ballots in key states to undermine Biden’s presidential win.

Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, a moderate Republican who won a tough reelection bid last week, said Biden needs to be briefed on classified intelligence – calling that process the “most important part of the transition” and one that can take place even as Trump contests the results in court.

“Like any apparent winner, he should have access to office space, federal employees, materials, supplies, whatever, but the standard assistance that the apparent winner receives,” Collins told reporters on Thursday. “That doesn’t in any way preclude President Trump from pursuing his legal remedies if he believes there are irregularities, but it should not delay the transition, because we want the president-elect – assuming he prevails – to be ready on day one.”

The acknowledgments came as Biden and his team continued to map out his transition, despite the lack of official certification from the General Services Administration that would unlock the resources and access to the federal government that Biden and his team will need to fully prepare for taking office on Jan. 20.

Biden also spoke with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., in their first substantive conversation since Biden was declared president-elect, with the trio stressing the need to have a coronavirus relief package signed into law by the end of the year.

The conversation effectively inserted Biden as a central figure in the talks, while Trump continued to stay out of sight and away from governing. The three Democrats coalesced behind a unified position, in particular advocating for state and local aid – a main sticking point between Democrats and Republicans.

Biden held another notable conversation on Thursday with Pope Francis, according to the transition team. Biden, who will become only the second Catholic to assume the U.S. presidency, expressed a desire to work together on issues including poverty, climate change and immigration.

The president-elect on Thursday also traveled to Rehoboth Beach, Del., where he has a vacation home and where he is expected to stay through part of the weekend. Biden, who on Wednesday named Washington veteran Ronald Klain as his incoming White House chief of staff, is not expected to formally announce other administration personnel this week.

But behind-the-scenes conversations between Capitol Hill and the transition team continued to occur, and Biden’s team has also tapped a coterie of senior House and Senate Democratic officials to serve as liaisons to Hill offices until Biden officially assumes the presidency, according to congressional aides.

An informal sketch of Biden’s orbit continued to take shape, with Steve Ricchetti, who served as chief of staff for Biden during his vice presidency, expected to assume a senior adviser role and Ted Kaufman, who temporarily succeeded Biden in the Senate when he was elevated to the vice presidency, becoming the head of a kitchen cabinet of sorts on which Biden will rely, according to a person familiar with the structure. Tom Donilon, another veteran Biden hand, is also expected to be a senior adviser to the president-elect.

One intriguing name being discussed privately is former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, according to the person familiar with the chatter who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The thinking behind the move was that it would be a way for Biden to highlight the importance of that position in his administration and that placing her there would raise the prestige of the U.N. itself at a time when global cooperation, and the U.S. role on the world stage, has ebbed.

Another name emerging as a potential Cabinet pick is Rep. Cheri Bustos, D-Ill., the chairwoman of the House Democrats’ campaign arm who oversaw the party’s loss of House seats in the 2020 elections. She has signaled interest in leading the Agriculture Department. A spokeswoman for Bustos said, “With votes still being counted across America, Congresswoman Bustos remains focused on the task at hand and making sure front-line members in uncalled races have the support they need.”

Meanwhile, the outlook at the White House continued to remain tense.

Some aides were looking for jobs, and many were quarantining or even sickened by the fresh coronavirus outbreak within the White House. Few were continuing to fight for Trump’s reelection.

“A lot of people aren’t here,” one administration official in the West Wing said on Thursday. Trump remained sequestered Thursday, marking a week since he has spoken in public view.

At his campaign headquarters, many staffers were expected to be laid off in the coming days, two officials said, with some aides being notified on Thursday. Officials were also supposed to brief surrogates on legal strategy Thursday afternoon but postponed the call twice, a person familiar with the planning said.

Later, in a 12-minute call, campaign officials said they believed Trump could still win the race. Tim Murtaugh, the campaign spokesman, asked donors and surrogates “for patience” and said it would take some time.

“There is not going to be a silver bullet,” he said. Murtaugh spent much of his time criticizing the news media, according to an audio recording of the call.

“The campaign continues to firmly believe that this election is not over,” Murtaugh said.

Justin Clark, the deputy campaign manager overseeing the legal efforts, told listeners that “you’re going to see a lot of things happen,” without offering much in the way of specifics. Clark asked for people to send to the campaign for investigation things they see on Twitter or on other websites.

Privately, White House senior adviser Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, continued to tell allies that Trump is “realistic” about his chances but wants to continue the fight, a person who has spoken to him said. Campaign manager Bill Stepien and other top campaign aides have also briefed Trump on his chances, casting them as uphill and telling Trump it is unlikely he will win.

But Trump does not want to pull out of the fight until the votes are certified in key states, which won’t be until late November or early December. His campaign filed five new lawsuits in Pennsylvania in an attempt to block 8,349 ballots in Philadelphia from being counted – complaints that centered on mail-in ballots that city officials decided to accept despite administrative errors made by voters.

Biden has been declared the winner of Pennsylvania by multiple media outlets, and he leads Trump in the state by more than 53,000 votes. Kevin Feeley, a spokesman for the Philadelphia city commissioners, said on Thursday that the disputed ballots had not yet been added to the public vote totals.

The Trump campaign ran into resistance elsewhere in the courts in Pennsylvania, as three former Republican members of Congress and several veterans of GOP administrations joined the opposition to an effort by Trump to use the federal courts to block certification of the state’s election results.

Trump alleged in a lawsuit that hundreds of thousands of votes in Democratic Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are invalid because his campaign was not able to watch them being counted, which election officials deny.

A group including former congressmen Charlie Dent and Jim Greenwood, R-Pa., and former congresswoman Connie Morella, R-Md., along with former New Jersey governor Christine Todd Whitman and former deputy attorney general Donald Ayer, filed a brief on Thursday asking Judge Matthew Brann to leave the dispute to the Pennsylvania state courts, which are considering a lawsuit from Trump on the same issue.

Another onetime Republican leader, former senator Saxby Chambliss, R-Ga., whose state has also become a battleground over ballots that Republicans have contested, told The Washington Post in an interview that “there was no wholesale fraudulent scheme.”

Of Georgia, where Biden leads by roughly 14,000 votes and where a hand recount is underway, Chambliss, who retired at the end of 2014, said: “I am on the ground and I heard nothing about any kind of harvesting of ballots or fraudulent transactions. Sure, there are going to be isolated situations but not on a wholesale basis.”

Chambliss stopped short of saying Trump should concede or allow the transition process and security briefings for Biden to begin. He said he supported Trump’s right to pursue all legal options to contest the election. But he emphasized that the process must play out in court, and only if new evidence surfaces.

Other GOP figures went further in actively identifying Biden as the rightful winner. Republican Gov. Mike DeWine of Ohio, whose state Trump won by eight points, said on CNN on Thursday that he sees Biden as the president-elect even as Trump has “every right” to legally contest the results.

“Our courts are the best place, frankly, to adjudicate facts,” DeWine said.

But because of Trump and his team’s public defiance, many elected Republican officials have declined to even call Biden the president-elect. Even some GOP lawmakers who said Biden should be briefed were careful to distinguish between the type of intelligence Biden received as the Democratic nominee and the full-blown presidential daily briefing, which Biden would usually have access to as the president-elect.

“We should be in the same posture that we ran throughout the whole campaign, both of them receiving briefings, as they’re both trying to be able to prepare and then allow the process to be able to go through right now,” said Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., a member of the Intelligence Committee.

Still, the consensus among Senate Republicans on Thursday was that Biden should be privy to the nation’s classified secrets.

“I see no problem” with Biden getting briefings, said Sen. Charles Grassley of Iowa, the most senior Republican in the Senate.

“I think so, yes,” Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., an ardent Trump ally, responded when asked whether Biden should be receiving classified briefings.

“Whether he actually gets the product itself, I think the information needs to be communicated in some way,” said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, another member of the Intelligence Committee. “If in fact he does win in the end, I think they need to be able to hit the ground running.”

– – –

The Washington Post’s Amy Gardner, John Wagner, Mike DeBonis and Felicia Sonmez contributed to this report.

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Jerry Rawlings, coup leader who ruled Ghana for 20 years, dies at 73

InternationalNov 13. 2020Jerry Rawlings 

By The Washington Post
Matt Schudel

Jerry Rawlings, who as a young military officer orchestrated two coups to seize control of the government in Ghana, then led the African country for 20 years, guiding it through a period of relative stability with an idiosyncratic blend of autocratic rule and democratic reform, died Nov. 12 at a hospital in the capital city of Accra. He was 73.

The death was announced in a statement by the country’s president, Nana Akufo-Addo, citing an undisclosed illness.

Rawlings was a 32-year-old Ghanaian air force officer when he first attempted to overthrow what he considered a corrupt national government in May 1979. He was jailed but soon became a hero to the country’s poor people and military.

With the help of disaffected soldiers and non-commissioned officers, he escaped from jail on June 4, 1979, then proceeded to a radio station to urge his followers to seize power. By the end of the day, the country’s military leader, Frederick Akuffo, had been toppled.

Rawlings, who was often known as “Flight Lt. Rawlings” for his military rank, charged Akuffo’s regime with corruption and profiteering.

“The rich became richer, including the high military officers, and most of us were starving,” he said at the time. “I’ve always wanted to do something to correct injustice.”

A presidential election was already scheduled, and Rawlings vowed to step aside in favor of the new democratically elected leader. But during his 112 days in power, he oversaw the hasty creation of military tribunals that put Akuffo and two other former heads of state on trial. They were executed, along with numerous high-ranking officials.

True to his word, Rawlings and other coup leaders returned to their military positions when Ghana’s new president, Hilla Limann, was sworn into office. In a speech before the country’s parliament, Rawlings looked directly at Limann and issued an unmistakable warning.

“If people in power use their offices to pursue self-interest, they will be resisted and unseated,” he said, before ominously adding, “We have every confidence that we shall never regret our decision to go back to the barracks.”

In 1957, Ghana became Africa’s first sub-Saharan country to declare independence from a colonial power, in its case Great Britain. After Ghana’s first president, Kwame Nkrumah, was overthrown in a military coup in 1966, the country faced increasing poverty and unrest under a series of military and civilian leaders.

That trend continued during Limann’s first two years in office, as Rawlings traveled throughout the country, giving speeches to large crowds and denouncing what he called the “rottenness” of a system that “would permit those same corrupt forces to retain their hold on Ghanaian life.”

Limann maligned Rawlings as “that boy,” and some of his associates mocked his mixed-race ancestry, calling him “half African.”

On Dec. 31, 1981, Rawlings led a second coup, calling Limann and his supporters “a pack of criminals who bled Ghana to the bone.”

This time, Rawlings had no intention of relinquishing authority. He dissolved the country’s parliament, abolished the constitution and banned all political parties except his own. He aimed to establish a socialist state in Ghana, espousing admiration for Libya and its dictator, Moammar Gaddafi.

“I am prepared at this moment to face a firing squad if what I try to do for the second time in my life does not meet the approval of Ghanaians,” Rawlings announced at the time.

He was, without question, an authoritarian ruler who fired judges and shut down opposition newspapers. His regime drove out many of the country’s business elite, particularly those of Lebanese descent, and publicly flogged people accused of charging too much money for commercial goods. Rawlings withstood several attempted coups, with political dissenters arrested and, in some cases, sentenced to death.

Yet, by the standards of other dictators, Rawlings demonstrated a certain measure of enlightenment and restraint. Instead of imposing Soviet-style economic programs, he took the advice of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank and launched free-market reforms that led to a decade of growth.

He resisted the establishment of a cult of personality around himself and seldom used the title “president.” No pictures of him were allowed in public places, and he was never implicated in scandals involving financial corruption or personal behavior.

He also pledged to restore democratic elections to Ghana and to allow opposition political parties, provided that they not have names that had been used before. In 1992, after more than 10 years of one-man rule, Rawlings ran for election and won the presidency with 58 percent of the vote.

Despite economic setbacks over the next few years, he was reelected in 1996 in an election that local and international observers agreed was free and fair. Under Ghana’s new constitution, which he helped produce, Rawlings could not seek a third term as president.

When the candidate from his party lost the presidential election in 2000, the peaceful transfer of power was considered a rarity in African politics.

Rawlings was born Jerry Rawlings John on June 22, 1947, in Accra. His father was a Scottish businessman, and his mother was from Ghana’s Ewe ethnic group. His parents were not married, and Rawlings was raised by his mother.

When he entered Ghana’s training academy for air cadets, his last name, John, was omitted from his official form, and he became known as Jerry Rawlings, or sometimes Jerry John Rawlings. (Ghanaians often called him “J.J.,” which some critics said stood for “Junior Jesus.”)

Rawlings excelled as a pilot and, after his first coup in 1979, reportedly celebrated by going for a joyride in a jet fighter, flying low over Accra and the countryside.

Survivors include his wife of 43 years, Nana Konadu Agyeman, who ran unsuccessfully for Ghana’s presidency in 2016; and four children.

In later years, Rawlings remained a powerful voice in Ghana’s public life. Despite his rise to power on the strength of a military coup, he came to be seen as a pan-African statesman and as a primary architect of his country’s emerging social and political stability. He lectured around the world and participated in peacekeeping and diplomatic efforts for the United Nations and African Union.

In a 1979 interview with The Washington Post, Rawlings cited the influence of Frantz Fanon, a Black psychiatrist and writer from Martinique whose books delineated the dehumanizing effect of colonialism and economic inequality.

“Well, that is what we are all about,” Rawlings said. “It’s not a Black-White thing here but the rich suppressing the poor, exploiting us, oppressing us.”

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Far-right protesters, counterdemonstrators plan to gather Saturday in D.C. amid pro-Trump rallies

InternationalNov 13. 2020President Trump 

By The Washington Post · Marissa J. Lang, Peter Hermann · NATIONAL, POLITICS 
WASHINGTON – Demonstrations in support of President Donald Trump’s refusal to accept the results of the presidential election will descend on downtown Washington this weekend. 

The events have been promoted by far-right media personalities, white nationalists and conspiracists – several of whom announced plans to attend. Counterdemonstrations organized by anti-fascist and anti-racism groups are being planned nearby.

The rallies, which include a Women for Trump event, a “Million MAGA March” and a “Stop the Steal” demonstration – which falsely asserts that voter fraud cost Trump the election – will begin Saturday morning in and around Freedom Plaza.

The pro-Trump rallies have garnered support from Fox News host Sean Hannity as well as more fringe figures, including Enrique Tarrio, chairman of the Proud Boys; self-described “American Nationalist” and social media agitator Nicholas Fuentes; conservative provocateur Jack Posobiec, who promoted the “Pizzagate” conspiracy tied to the 2016 shooting at a District of Columbia pizzeria Comet Ping Pong; Scott Presler, a pro-Trump activist who works with anti-Muslim group ACT For America; and Infowars founder and conspiracy theorist Alex Jones. 

Jones has said he is leading a “Stop the Steal” caravan from Texas that is expected to arrive Friday night in the nation’s capital.

Trump campaign adviser Jason Miller responded to a tweet Thursday in support of the rally, saying, “Love the outpouring of support for @realDonaldTrump!”

A handful of anti-Trump rallies have also been announced, including one near Union Station organized by local activists and a protest involving Refuse Fascism D.C., which has said it intends to stand against “the Trump regime’s attempts to steal the election.”

Neither District police nor the National Park Service have issued permits for the demonstrations, although the Park Service is processing a permit application from Women for America First, a pro-Trump group that has advertised “Stop the Steal” rallies on its social media pages. It estimated in a permit application that about 50 people would attend its event.

The Park Service regularly works with groups that do not obtain permits before an event to register for one on-site and, if necessary, to move to a safer location. It was not clear whether the Park Police or Park Service had plans to approach demonstrators Saturday. 

District of Columbia Mayor Muriel Bowser, a Democrat, said city officials have been monitoring social media chatter around the planned events.

“We continue to follow those activities and be prepared,” Bowser said at a news conference this week. “Our police chief will have a similar posture this weekend as he did last week. We will be there to support peaceful First Amendment demonstrations.”

Bowser warned out-of-town visitors against bringing firearms to the city, noting the District has more strict firearm laws than other parts of the country. Gun owners are allowed to carry a concealed weapon with the proper license but carrying a gun openly is prohibited. It is also illegal to possess a magazine that can hold more than 10 rounds of ammunition.

District police announced road closures and parking restrictions throughout downtown.

District police were put on high alert last week with fears of unrest and violent protests that many cities expected could follow Election Day. Although those fears didn’t materialize, many downtown District businesses remained boarded up through the weekend – and the raucous celebrations that followed Biden’s victory. 

The mayor said she is still urging businesses to remove the boards, even with the Saturday rallies in mind.

Local activists are taking precautions as they prepare for Saturday, including efforts to safeguard the living monument at Black Lives Matter Plaza that has grown on and around the tall chain-link fence encircling Lafayette Square.

Last month, a group of Trump supporters in the District for Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett’s confirmation hearings tore down a number of the signs. Activists rebuilt the memorial the next day, and several have been standing guard since.

Past protests in Washington that have featured white nationalists and other far-right provocateurs have been dwarfed by counterdemonstrators.

A year after the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, Va., turned deadly when a car plowed into a crowd of counterprotesters, a small handful of white supremacists came to the District for the “Unite the Right 2” rally. Organizers had hoped hundreds would join them, but about three dozen attended. They were drowned out by crowds of counterprotesters, who chanted and danced in the street.

Last year, hundreds of District police officers kept far-right agitators, including members of the Proud Boys, and left-wing anti-fascist protesters clad in black from clashing during dueling rallies at Freedom Plaza and nearby Pershing Park. Though the groups interacted at times during the July 2019 demonstration, the protests did not turn violent. The crowd of counterprotesters far outnumbered the right-wing demonstrators.

Christopher Rodriguez, the District’s director of homeland security and emergency management, said in a news conference Thursday that officials are expecting a relatively small turnout at Saturday’s rally spread out among about a dozen groups.

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Senate readies vote on Judy Shelton, granting Trump another opportunity to shape Federal Reserve

InternationalNov 13. 2020Federal Reserve nominee Judy Shelton 

By The Washington Post · Rachel Siegel · BUSINESS, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS 
WASHINGTON – The Senate as soon as next week could vote to confirm President Donald Trump’s controversial Federal Reserve nominee Judy Shelton to a seat on the central bank’s board of governors, giving the president another chance to shape the long-term direction of one of the government’s most powerful entities.

Senate Republicans signaled on Thursday that they planned to vote on her long-pending nomination during the lame-duck session of Congress next week.

On Thursday, Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, said a vote “could be as early as next week” and that Shelton’s confirmation had been discussed among the party’s leadership. Also on Thursday, Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, said she would support Shelton’s nomination, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., invoked “cloture,” a procedure that is necessary before the full Senate can hold a vote on Shelton’s nomination. 

Just a few months ago, it was unclear whether Shelton had enough support among the party’s senators to be confirmed. 

Shelton’s confirmation could mark Trump’s final imprint on the Fed board before the Biden administration is inaugurated in January. Trump’s previous picks to fill the Fed’s two current vacancies have been faced with criticism from Democrats and Republicans alike, and getting his final nominees confirmed would be a victory before his administration leaves office. Some of Shelton’s critics had previously questioned whether Trump, if reelected, would try to elevate Shelton to Fed Chair. Yet those prospects have all but evaporated with an incoming Biden administration. 

“Judy Shelton, President Trump’s exceptionally qualified nominee to the Federal Reserve, has the full backing of the White House and we expect she will be confirmed,” White House spokesman Judd Deere said in a statement on Thursday.

In September, Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., suggested Shelton did not have the votes to be confirmed. At the time, Thune said conversations around Shelton’s nomination “kind of got eclipsed by the coronavirus discussion” and related stimulus negotiations.

“We’re still working it,” Thune said at the time. “She’s a priority for the White House. It’s the Federal Reserve. It’s important, so obviously we want to get it done. But we’re not going to bring it up until we have the votes to confirm her.”

Shelton’s confirmation also appeared in jeopardy earlier in the summer when Sens. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, said they would vote against her nomination. In July, Shelton’s nomination narrowly made it through the Senate Banking Committee, which voted 13-12 along party lines to move her through. Some on the panel had previously expressed concerns that Shelton’s views on the Fed’s independence and monetary policy made her too much of an outlier.

Shelton advised Trump’s 2016 presidential bid and has been criticized for her views on the long-abandoned gold standard. Shelton had also called for closer ties between the White House and the Fed despite a long precedent for the central bank’s independence.

Shelton’s nomination was put up alongside that of Christopher Waller, a St. Louis Fed economist. Waller’s confirmation has been far less controversial. If both Shelton and Waller are confirmed, all of the board’s current vacancies will be filled. 

“It means Republicans are taking it very seriously and Trump wants to get it done,” said Stephen Moore, an outside economic adviser to the White House who abandoned his own bid to fill one of the Fed’s vacancies amid scrutiny of his past remarks. “People said, well, she’s not in the mainstream with all the other Fed economists. Well, that’s what we like about her…There’s this sense that everyone has to drink the same Kool-Aid at the Fed.”

Still, the makeup of the Fed board of governors could change further once the Biden administration is inaugurated. Lael Brainard, currently the board’s lone Democrat, is also a top contender for Biden’s Treasury Secretary or, some suggest, a successor to Powell if he is not reappointed when his term ends in 2022.

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Iraqis who helped U.S. fear reprisals

InternationalNov 13. 2020Pictured in January 2020, members of the Hashd al-Shaabi militias watch as photos featuring Qasem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis are unveiled in the Karrada vicinity of Baghdad. MUST CREDIT: Photo by Emilienne Malfatto for The Washington Post 

By The Washington Post · Louisa Loveluck, Missy Ryan, Mustafa Salim · NATIONAL, WORLD, POLITICS, MIDDLE-EAST 

BAGHDAD – Iraqis who have worked closely with the U.S. military in their country have grown increasingly alarmed that they could be targeted for attack, fearing their personal identifying information has been obtained by Iran-backed militias. 

At a time when militia attacks on supply convoys for the U.S.-led coalition and against other U.S. interests have been on the rise, the sharing of this information – including names, addresses and license plate numbers – could present a heightened threat to hundreds of Iraqis who have long worked with American forces, in particular as translators. 

The U.S. military provides this personal information to the Iraqi security forces, as required by Iraqi authorities, to secure permission for the translators to move around Iraq, according to documents and Iraqi military officials. But Iran-backed militias have so permeated parts of Iraq’s security apparatus that the information has, in some cases, become accessible to groups that have taken up arms against the Americans and their local support staff, Iraqi officials say.

“It’s not a surprise that militias have these documents,” said an official in Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s office. He added, “They believe it’s going to be a long battle, so they will gather as much leverage over U.S. interests as possible.”

In June, a list purporting to contain personal information about Iraqis admitted to the Union III military base in Baghdad, the main headquarters of the U.S.-led military coalition, was published by the Sabreen news agency, which is affiliated with Iran-backed militias. The list included the names, addresses and identification numbers of Iraqi drivers and the make, model, year and license plate numbers of their cars, among other specifics, and the document bore logos of the U.S.-led military coalition and the U.S. Defense Department. The Washington Post could not independently verify the authenticity of the list.

Separately, two Iraqi translators saidthey witnessed militiamen who were stationed near an Iraqi military checkpoint check a list containing personal information that had been acquired from a military coordination center run by the Iraqi security forces. 

“When we realized where the information had come from, we were shocked. The list contains everything. Phone numbers, ID numbers, even our real names,” said one translator from Baghdad. The Post reviewed a copy of the list and confirmed this description.

“It’d be an easy mission to hunt us down,” the translator said. “They have all the information now. What if this list now goes online?” This man, like seven other translators interviewed for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal.

In response to a request for comment, a U.S. military spokesman said the U.S.-led coalition does not share personally identifiable information about the translators with the Iraqi military or government.

But three documents obtained by The Post show that such information provided by the U.S.-led coalition has been circulated by various elements of the Iraqi security forces over the past year. The documents, all issued by the national operations center under Iraq’s prime minister, say the information was obtained from the U.S.-led coalition and then shared with Iraqi security forces, including at three military camps in Baghdad; the special division for the Green Zone in central Baghdad; and the military intelligence directorate. In one case, the document includes personal information for 143 of the employees.

A senior Iraqi military officer said the U.S. military shared the information so the translators could travel outside military bases.

When the U.S. military spokesman was asked about the documents showing that the U.S.-provided information had been given to various Iraqi security forces, he had no additional comment.

The translators, who have been employed by Valiant Integrated Services, a Virginia-based contractor, represent one of the largest groups of Iraqis who have worked closely with the U.S.-led coalition. Many have served on front lines with U.S. and other coalition troops, sleeping in the same foxholes and camping out in abandoned buildings as fighting raged around them. 

The threat facing the translators has grown more intense in recent months. Many have been laid off as the United States prepares to withdraw its forces from the country, leaving the former contract workers unemployed and potentially unprotected.

The translator from Baghdad, now out of work, has been renting temporary accommodations with two former colleagues to hide out. But money is running out. “We are literally eating our savings buying food here,” he said. “We’ll be empty-handed by the end of the year.”

Under its contract with the U.S. military, Valiant hires translators, formally known as linguists, for work in Iraq, Syria and other places. The company has shared little information publicly about its work and employees, citing contract restrictions. 

Militia access to the personal information of Valiant’s employees could exacerbate a threat long felt by Iraqi support staff, who in some cases already fear they have been identified by militiamen monitoring checkpoints and military bases.

“We have interpreters right now who call me to say they have been threatened when they visit the bazaar or even just when they leave their homes,” said an Iraqi translator who coordinates a network of former support staff. “Some people have been told: ‘We can’t touch U.S. citizens here, but we can touch you.’ ” 

This translator, who lives in the northern city of Kirkuk, recalled a recent evening when he was leaving a busy cafe. A man he didn’t recognize approached from behind and tapped his shoulder firmly. “I turned around and he looked at me directly. He told me I had to leave this city,” recounted the translator.

In response to a request for comment, the U.S. military declined to say whether it had taken any steps to protect the personal information of Iraqi translators and address the threats they now face as a result of this information being accessible to Iran-backed groups.

A spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition said he had contacted Valiant and that the company had responded that “it does not share information that puts the safety for their warfighters or teammates in jeopardy.” The spokesman, Col. Wayne Marotto, said Valiant should be contacted for any further information.

When contacted, Valiant did not provide further formal comment. But a person familiar with the issue said Valiant’s policy is to notify the appropriate military unit if a current or former employee reports a threat, which the person said has occurred “a few times a year.” The person added: “This is a priority. The military takes it from there.”

When the U.S. military was contacted again and asked how it handles these threats once it has been notified, the spokesman provided no further comment.

Although Iran-backed militias participated in the U.S.-supported campaign to oust the Islamic State’s caliphate, these armed groups have recently been escalating their attacks on American interests in Iraq, especially after the U.S. killing of top Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad in January. 

Militias in Iraq have described the translators as traitors. Iraqis driving equipment and logistics convoys on behalf of the U.S.-led coalition have been targeted. There have been at least 30 rocket or improvised explosive attacks on the convoys since the summer, according to a figures compiled by Joel Wing, an Iraq expert and author of the Musings on Iraq blog, which chronicles security and political developments. At least two people have been killed and another eight have been wounded. 

Marotto, the coalition spokesman, referred questions about attacks on convoy drivers to the Iraqi military, because the drivers are employed by companies contracted by Iraq’s security forces.

The Trump administration’s plans to draw down most of the remaining U.S. troops in Iraq has come amid escalating militia assaults against the convoys and other U.S. interests, including repeated rocket attacks on bases hosting American forces.

Between March and August, hundreds of Iraqi personnel working in support of the U.S. mission received emails saying their contracts had ended due to a loss of funding, stoking fears that they would be even more vulnerable to revenge attacks once the Americans depart. 

Those who have been working remotely due to the coronavirus outbreak were told not to return to their bases. Those still working at military installations alongside U.S. soldiers said they were informed that their departure would be “coordinated” in short order. 

The U.S.-led coalition has been stationed in Iraq to fight the Islamic State since 2014. In September, Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, the commander of U.S. Central Command, said that the troop reduction – from around 5,200 to 3,000 – reflects the administration’s confidence that Iraqi security forces can handle the remaining threat from Islamic State militants in the country. 

While employed, the translators could report threats they received, and for the most part, they say, their complaints were taken seriously by the U.S. military. Some men were offered a safe place to stay on a military base. Others said their superiors made it clear that they had their backs. 

“I knew the risks when I signed on, but I also knew that the United States had told us that no matter the threat, they would stand by us,” said another translator from Kirkuk. 

During four years of service, he said, he had worked with the U.S. Navy SEALs and the Montana Army National Guard and had most recently been helping train Iraqi forces at two centers in northern Iraq.

When he received his termination notice, he got goose bumps. “I knew then that it isn’t a matter of asking whether something will happen to us. It’s a matter of asking when,” he said. 

Another translator, who said he had worked with the Navy SEALs on the front lines against the Islamic State, said he had not believed a colleague who called to say their contracts had ended. “He told me to check my Gmail, so I did the thing where you drag the screen down to refresh. I really didn’t think anything would show up. When it did, we were all freaking out.”

In late October, a little-known militia named Ashab al-Kahf addressed the translators directly in a statement, suggesting that the group would be willing to “forgive” and even provide a salary to those who identified themselves as working on a U.S. military installation. “Today we think it is beautiful to offer forgiveness to those who have insulted themselves, their religion and their country, who have rendered services to the American, the English, and the rest of the enemies of Iraq,” the statement said. 

A former translator in Baghdad said he saw the offer as a “trap,” adding, “Just like I predicted, the worst is yet to come.” 

The mounting peril comes as the Trump administration has been making it more difficult for people who fear war or other dangers in their home countries to move to the United States. The White House announced in October that it would reduce the annual cap on refugee entries to a record low of 15,000. 

While that number allocates up to 4,000 spots for U.S.-affiliated Iraqis per year, Iraqi applicants have been processed slowly, partly because of heightened security vetting. According to the International Refugee Assistance Project (IRAP), there is a backlog of over 100,000 Iraqi applicants. Last year, the U.S. government also set aside 4,000 spots for Iraqis but only 161 were resettled, IRAP said.

Meanwhile, the United States no longer allows Iraqis who worked with the U.S. government in Iraq to apply for a so-called Special Immigrant Visas program, which stopped accepting new applications in 2014. A parallel program for Iraqi and Afghan translators remains open, but it is capped at 50 people per year. 

“Pathways for humanitarian protection for refugees from Iraq have so narrowed that they are basically closed,” said Sunil Varghese, IRAP’s policy director.

One of the translators who had worked with the Navy SEALs said he had been “honored” to do so. “I’m so proud of all the days I’ve been working with the greatest forces in the world,” he said. “But the problem is that after they are gone, their government doesn’t care about us. We are literally left behind.”

In the northern city of Irbil, a group of translators submitted a letter late last month to the U.S. Consulate there that they said was on behalf of around 400 people who had been hired by Valiant. “We are sure that you are well aware of the situation and the difficulties we face every day. For that, we are asking you kindly to reactivate [the visa] program that used to be provided for Linguists such us just a few years ago,” the letter read. 

Hostile militias, it said, are “capable and willing” to hunt down translators who have supported the departing U.S. forces. “The situation for us is a matter of When rather than If.”

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Swedish central banker says economy is worse than official data show

InternationalNov 12. 2020Stefan Ingves, governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, reacts during a news conference in Stockholm, Sweden, on Dec. 19, 2019. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Mikael Sjoberg.

By Syndication Washington Post,  Bloomberg · Rafaela Lindeberg · BUSINESS, WORLD, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS 

Sweden’s economy has been harder hit by the Covid crisis than is reflected in the latest official forecasts, according to the governor of the Riksbank, Stefan Ingves.

“The recovery seems to be a little slower than we initially thought,” Ingves said in an interview in Stockholm on Wednesday. “It is extremely difficult to assess how long this will take.”

After a summer during which the pandemic seemed to be receding, infection rates have again started to spike as winter approaches and temperatures drop. In Sweden, the government is now resorting to tighter measures than were used in the spring, in an effort to fight back the virus.

Robert Bergqvist, chief economist at SEB, said he doesn’t see much evidence in the latest data that things are slowing down in Sweden. But “changed behaviors” are also making it harder to interpret the statistics that are available, he said.

“It sounds as if Ingves is preparing for more stimulus,” said Bergqvist, who once ran the economic analysis unit at the Riksbank. That’s likely to take the form of an expanded quantitative easing program by 20% to $70 billion (600 billion kronor), he said.

The Riksbank’s latest official forecast, from September, shows Sweden’s economy shrinking 3.6% this year. The estimate was an improvement on the bank’s previous prediction for a 4.5% contraction in 2020. The Riksbank also raised its guidance for 2021 slightly in September, to growth of 3.7% from 3.6% previously.

Inflation stagnated at 0.3% in October, well below the Riksbank’s 2% target, according to data published on Thursday by Statistics Sweden.

Ingves, like some of his peers, cautioned against reading too much into efforts to produce a vaccine.

Stock markets shot up on Monday after an analysis showed that a vaccine being developed by Pfizer and BioNTech prevented over 90% of Covid-19 infections. The news was received as a game changer for global efforts to fight the virus, which has already killed more than 1 million people.

There are “lively discussions” about vaccines, Ingves said. But “it will take some time before everyone is vaccinated, and before this goes away.”

The Riksbank’s benchmark interest rate has been zero since Ingves ended half a decade of negative rates last year. He’s since made clear the Riksbank will rely on bond purchases, not rates, to support the economy.

The Riksbank has tested the limits of its toolbox this year, adding corporate bonds to its quantitative easing program for the first time. But Ingves signaled he’d be unlikely to make policy adjustments in response to developments in stock markets.

“We are, of course, looking at the financial sector, the banking system at large,” he said. “The Riksbank’s main focus isn’t the stock market. The stock market is a risk market and that’s something you have to live with, if you choose to put your money there. Sometimes it goes up and sometimes down.”

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G-20 looks to deepen debt relief drive with China’s coordination

InternationalNov 12. 2020

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Alonso Soto, Eric Martin · BUSINESS, WORLD, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS 
Policy makers from the world’s largest economies are set to meet Friday to iron out the details of a plan for debt relief to the poorest countries battered by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 scheduled the extraordinary meeting to deepen their work from last month and try to finalize the plan ahead of a summit by their heads of government next week. Officials from host Saudi Arabia will chair the talks.

The next phase of a relief drive is largely aimed at winning buy-in from China, the world’s largest official creditor, which was owed almost 60% of the bilateral debt that the poorest nations were due to repay this year. Beijing and other G-20 members suspended debt payments from dozens of countries until at least the first half of 2021.

The effort aims to standardize the way official and commercial creditors rework sovereign debts, seeking similar rules for China and the Paris Club, a grouping of mostly western government creditors. Beijing has also clashed with private bondholders in recent restructurings.

“Attention has been on getting an agreement that China can get behind,” said Eric LeCompte, the executive director of Jubilee USA Network, a non-profit group that advocates for debt relief for smaller economies. “This has been a process to include China.”

The G-20 members agreed to the framework in principle on Oct. 14 pending domestic approval, leaving the details for Friday’s meeting. Some western governments, however, have been skeptical that China will fully adopt the formula out of fear it could lose its edge in renegotiations and be forced to reveal the full extent of its overseas lending, according to two people familiar with the negotiations.

World Bank President David Malpass has complained that neither China nor bondholders have provided enough debt relief.

China “supports all parties to take further common action,” the nation’s Foreign Ministry said on Oct. 30 in a response to questions over its commitment to a common strategy.

Beijing says that global multilateral banks and commercial creditors have failed to provide relief to the poor despite holding much of their debt. However, it’s unclear if private investors would be able to grant leniency due to their fiduciary duties to clients, given that the fine print in many debt agreements prohibits changes in the terms without the approval of the majority of bondholders.

“Anything that moves us in the direction of China accepting Paris-Club-style principles, I think that would be a good thing,” said Mark Sobel, a former U.S. Treasury official now at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. “I expect the common framework to be incremental and not revolutionary.”

The U.S. presidential transition also hangs over the meetings, with Donald Trump set to exit as Joe Biden takes over the White House in two months. While G-20 heads of government are scheduled to meet on Nov. 21-22 with Trump’s participation, both Sobel and LeCompte urged Biden to call for another summit once he becomes president to strengthen debt-relief measures and coordinate the global response to the virus.

The pandemic-induced shock has hit developing economies particularly hard. Commodity prices slumped and investors withdrew capital, raising fears of a debt crisis that could sink millions into poverty if nothing is done.

As of last year, almost half of all low-income countries have reached, or are near, debt distress, according to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

Although the framework should help cut the debt load, lack of a real commitment by G-20 creditors will likely derail the initiative, said Daniel Munevar, a policy adviser with the European Network on Debt and Development.

“The predicted failure of the G-20 response will condemn a large number of developing countries to a lost decade,” Munevar said.

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Japan has worst day of covid cases yet amid fears of winter wave

InternationalNov 12. 2020A screen features Hokkaido Governor Naomichi Suzuki delivering a coronavirus public information message at a junction in Sapporo, Japan, on Nov. 5, 2020. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Kentaro Takahashi.

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Lisa Du · WORLD, ASIA-PACIFIC 
Japan hit a new daily record of coronavirus infections Thursday as authorities began hinting they may take stronger measures to arrest the increase.

At least 1,634 cases were recorded nationwide, according to a tally by national broadcaster NHK, topping the previous high set during a surge in August. While numbers are low in absolute terms compared to many other countries, a spike in northern Japan is leading to concerns cases could spread as winter sets in.

Yasutoshi Nishimura, the minister overseeing the country’s coronavirus response, said more stringent steps would be needed if infections continued to rise. That’s the strongest warning yet from the national government in a country that has largely escaped the worst of the pandemic.

“If it continues like this, the medical system could become overstretched,” Nishimura said at a briefing in Tokyo. “It’s not at the point where we need to call for a state of emergency, but we need to have the strongest sense of caution.”

Nishimura said that in some regions, several criteria used to evaluate the situation — such as the pace of new infections and the proportion of cases with an unknown route of infection — had entered the second-most serious stage on the government’s monitoring scale.

The northern island of Hokkaido and Kanagawa, near Tokyo, were among regions that saw record numbers of new cases. The Hokkaido government has already asked bars and other establishments to close early in the regional capital’s nightlife district. Tokyo saw 393 infections, one of the heaviest days to date.

Shares of Japanese stay-at-home stocks rose in Tokyo Thursday, with videogame and e-commerce stocks gaining as investors began to fret over the increase.

“This could be the beginning of a sharp increase in infections,” said Norio Ohmagari, an infectious disease specialist advising Tokyo authorities, at a local government meeting. “We need to be on alert.”

Japan has drawn attention from other nations for its ability to control the spread of the virus without mass-testing or enforced lockdowns. Despite two previous flareups, deaths and serious cases remain low, and hospitals haven’t been pushed to capacity. Life had been returning to normal, with sporting matches resuming, workers returning to offices and a successful campaign encouraging domestic travel.

But in recent weeks, officials have expressed concern over the increasing variance of infection clusters, with cases rising in nursing homes, hospitals and schools. Experts have pointed to an increased spread among younger adults tired of social distancing, as well as within foreign communities, which may struggle due to language barriers and more limited access to health services.

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Biden’s path back to Iran nuclear deal won’t be easy or fast

InternationalNov 12. 2020Mourners carry images of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani and Iranian national flags during the funeral ceremony in Tehran on Jan. 6, 2020. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Ali Mohammadi.

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Golnar Motevalli, David Wainer · NATIONAL, WORLD, POLITICS, NATIONAL-SECURITY, WHITEHOUSE, MIDDLE-EAST 
America’s European allies have struggled to keep the Iran nuclear deal alive after President Donald Trump quit the accord more than two years ago. Joe Biden’s election victory won’t provide a quick resuscitation.

Biden said during the presidential campaign that Trump’s Iran policy weakened U.S. national security and left Tehran closer than ever to being able to build a nuclear bomb. He vowed to get on the phone with allies on “day one” to begin rebuilding strained ties and said he’d give Iran a “credible path back to diplomacy.”

But Iran’s mid-2021 presidential election, as well as likely continued Republican control of the U.S. Senate, will put the brakes on quick, substantive action, according to U.S. and Iranian diplomats and analysts. In addition, Biden has signaled that his priorities starting Jan. 20 will be on the economy and getting the coronavirus pandemic under control.

“I am not optimistic at all that in the short term anything significant will happen between Iran and the Americans,” Saeed Laylaz, an economist and former adviser to ex-President Mohammad Khatami, said in an interview. “It’s not impossible, but it will be extremely difficult.”

Nuclear watchdogs and security analysts aren’t the only ones focused on what Biden could accomplish: Oil markets are betting on some easing of tensions by summer 2021 that will free the way for Iranian crude to return to global markets by year-end, Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Advisors, said on Bloomberg TV last week.

That could still be an optimistic timeline.

On Wednesday, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani — who leaves office next year after staking his political legacy and reputation on the nuclear accord reached during the Obama administration — referred to Biden as “the new man who’s arrived” and had campaigned on returning to the accord. “If they stick to their responsibilities they can choose the new path,” he said.

But uncertainty about Rouhani’s successor, and the potential that elections could lead to a much harder-line government, will probably temper Biden’s enthusiasm to get something done quickly.

In addition, while presidents generally have some leeway on foreign policy, a Senate under Republican control would mean lawmakers would demand assurances on Biden’s Iran policy before they confirm his nominees, said Richard Goldberg, a former National Security Council official under Trump.

“Any effort to rejoin the Iran deal and build on it will be intensely scrutinized in Congress and among domestic critics,” said Ariane Tabatabai, a Middle East Fellow at the Alliance for Securing Democracy at the German Marshall Fund.

If Biden pursues a rally-the-allies approach to Iran, that will likely include close consultations with everyone from Israel to the U.A.E., which aren’t likely to be as accommodating as European partners.

An official with Biden’s transition team didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Pressuring Biden to take the first step may be tough after the Trump administration spent four years highlighting the threat from Iran, which the U.S. sees as sowing turmoil across the Mideast and accused of hacking American voter data before the election.

Iran’s actions since the U.S. quit the 2015 nuclear deal — including its decision to ramp up uranium enrichment — have in some ways bolstered the Trump administration’s arguments.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said on Wednesday that Iran’s uranium stockpiles have grown eightfold since the U.S. quit the deal, and it now has enough supply to create three bombs if it enriches the material to weapons grade. Iran says its moves are reversible if the U.S. returns to the accord, and it has continued to host IAEA inspectors and meet other requirements of the nuclear deal.

Iran has signaled its requirements for reviving the multinational deal.

Its negotiators would want to see an authentic effort by Biden to not only scrap Trump’s approach but show that the U.S. had a longterm commitment to the accord, said a source close to official foreign policy circles in Tehran who didn’t want to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter.

An Iranian official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said Biden would have to return to the nuclear accord without condition, compensation to Iran would have to be on the table and the U.S. would have to guarantee that it won’t invoke a “snapback” of United Nations sanctions as the Trump administration has tried to do.

Biden could take some smaller moves that would reduce the pressure on Tehran without committing the U.S. to a full-fledged detente. He could, for instance, ease the transfer of humanitarian aid to Iran, especially as the coronavirus batters the country’s health-care system, said Naysan Rafati, the International Crisis Group’s Iran analyst.

The U.S. can also try to help Iran gain access to a long-sought loan from the International Monetary Fund, he added. But even that would engender heavy scrutiny by Republicans, who are wary of providing funding to a government long listed by the U.S. as a state sponsor of terrorism.

That’s especially true now that the first of the accord’s “sunset” provisions, which expire at fixed dates, has already passed. An international ban on Iranian arms purchases lapsed in October and other restrictions built into the accord expire in less than five years.

The short time horizon of the 2015 deal between Iran and six world powers prompted Biden to say he wants to expand on the agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA.

Iranian officials, while broadly welcoming Trump’s defeat, have repeatedly said that the original terms of the deal can’t be renegotiated.

“I don’t see Iran being willing to walk that path,” said Adnan Tabatabai, co-founder and chief executive officer of the Bonn-based Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient, adding that Iran would be “allergic” to any mention of a “JCPOA-Plus”.

A final hurdle could still come from Trump, as his team works to restrict options for the incoming administration. The administration has been working to create a layer of hard-to-reverse sanctions that could initially hobble Biden’s efforts.

Elliott Abrams, the State Department’s Special Representative for Iran and Venezuela, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV Thursday that the Trump administration will impose new sanctions on Iran but declined to specify which Iranian entities would be targeted or when penalties were likely.

“The Trump administration’s approach now is to add more and more threads to this spider web and hope the next guy has a hard time washing them away,” said Rafati, the International Crisis Group’s Iran analyst. “There’s very little in here that’s totally irreversible. But these are harder to undo because you have to make the case that terrorism is no longer a concern.”

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Erdogan economy u-turn sparks market euphoria – and some doubts

InternationalNov 12. 2020A vendor assists a customer to pick fresh produce from a stall at the Carsamba market in Istanbul on Nov. 4, 2020. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Nicole Tung.

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Onur Ant · BUSINESS, WORLD, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS, EUROPE, MIDDLE-EAST 
After more than two years of confrontation, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signaled a cease-fire with international investors, pledging to support his new economic managers with market-friendly policies.

Erdogan on Wednesday followed the ouster of the central bank chief and the departure of his son-in-law as economy czar in recent days with a commitment to contain inflation while putting Turkey on a sustainable growth path. Turkish assets soared, as investors saw a possible green light for interest-rate increases to stabilize a currency that has lost almost half its value against the dollar since May 2018.

“Evidence has been rapidly accumulating that Turkey is eager to execute a dramatic shift in policy making back toward a more orthodox framework,” said Phoenix Kalen, a strategist at Societe Generale in London. “We believe that the central bank will implement a substantial interest-rate hike” next week, possibly as much as 4 percentage points to 14.25%.

The currency gained 4.6% against the dollar on Wednesday. It’s headed for its biggest weekly gain in more than a decade even after retreating 0.6% on Thursday. The Borsa Istanbul 100 Index extended its winning streak to a ninth day, led by a surge in banking shares, which helped push Turkey’s benchmark gauge to an all-time high.

Erdogan’s remarks mark a dramatic U-turn from an approach that has hammered Turkish markets the past two years. Shortly before he was sworn in under a new constitution with near-total authority in 2018, Erdogan promised to take full control of monetary policy to implement his unorthodox view that lower interest rates promote slower inflation.

It didn’t work out, especially under the weight of the global recession spawned by the coronavirus pandemic.

To support the sinking lira, Turkish banks sold more than $100 billion this year alone, according to Goldman Sachs estimates. The effort saw net foreign-exchange reserves fall by more than half to $18.4 billion while money borrowed from banks under short-term swaps reached tens of billions of dollars. The lira touched consecutive record lows last week, extending 2020 losses to over 30%.

The remarks by the 66-year-old president who has led the country since 2003 reflected those pressures. “Like everywhere else around the world, in our country it is the central bank’s job to determine and implement policies needed to curb inflation,” he told lawmakers from his AK Party.

Erdogan’s comments capped a tumultuous stretch that began when he ousted central bank Governor Murat Uysal early Saturday after a series of interest-rate increases failed to stem the lira’s decline. On Sunday evening, Berat Albayrak announced his resignation as treasury and finance minister on Instagram, citing health reasons.

Still, there were doubts about Erdogan’s change of heart and how long it will take before his electoral priorities might cause yet another policy reversal.

“Can a leopard really change its spots?” said Nigel Rendell, a senior analyst at Medley Global Advisors. “There will be a significant degree of skepticism about what Erdogan has said, which will temper some enthusiasm.”

Erdogan’s battle with markets began in earnest in 2018, a year when he was sworn in with additional powers and appointed Albayrak to the top economy position. The appointment was soon followed by a diplomatic row with U.S. over accusations against an American pastorin Turkey. The president blamed a shadowy “interest-rate lobby” for speculative attacks against the currency as the lira plunged.

Erdogan wasn’t completely unaware of the transactions involving Turkey’s foreign reserves, but the crunch came after he sought an explanation from the central bank for its September decision to raise the benchmark one-week repo rate to 10.25%, according to officials familiar with the matter.

Ensuing conversations with former Governor Uysal and other top officials including Agbal allowed Erdogan to get a fuller picture of the FX liabilities and how they compared to net reserves, they said, asking not to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.

The president’s support is critical for new central bank Governor Naci Agbal, who will face a credibility test at his first Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Nov. 19, and new Treasury and Finance Minister Lutfi Elvan. With Erdogan saying he won’t interfere, optimism has grown that Turkey will allow interest rates to rise to offer a sufficient inflation-adjusted return.

Agbal has begun meeting top banking executives to tell them he was appointed with a mandate to lower the inflation rate, which is just under 12%, people familiar with the meetings said, asking not to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.

Even before Erdogan’s speech, Agbal and Elvan have been doing the rounds to convey market-friendly messages to Turkish businesses while they prepare for the rates decision.

To be sure, Erdogan’s career saw previous attempts to appease investors, which proved short-lived. Even in Wednesday’s speech, he repeated his widely discredited view that lowering interest rates will also lead to lower inflation.

“Erdogan’s priority is to consolidate support and maintain the popularity of his party,” Nihat Ali Ozcan, a strategist at the Economic Policy Research Foundation in Ankara, said by phone on Wednesday. “He is a pragmatic leader and the economy management appointed by the president are unlikely to act independently. His arguments are aimed at preventing the economy, which is badly hurt by the pandemic, from deteriorating further.”