“Yet we acknowledge the downside risks emanating from the contraction in agricultural output. Global expectations for rice output are not promising, weighing on agricultural exports,” the ANZ report says.

Early last week, Asian Development Bank (ADB)’s growth forecast for Vietnam’s GDP was robust, with predictions of 6.7 per cent in 2016 and 6.5 per cent in 2017.

Credit Suisse said Vietnam’s growing popularity as a global manufacturing hub was one of the reasons for the growth.

“As labour costs have risen dramatically in China over the last several years, a growing number of manufacturers have moved operations from the Middle Kingdom to Vietnam, or have even decided to set up shop there in the first place,” Credit Suisse said.

Credit Suisse also expects Vietnam’s export growth to moderate slightly from 7.1 per cent in 2015 to 6.9 per cent in 2016 due to a recent slowdown in the United States and China’s declining appetite for imports while total foreign direct investment (FDI) reaches US$13 billion, down from a spectacular $14.5 billion in 2015.

“The manufacturing sector, which accounts for 24 per cent of Viet Nam’s GDP, attracted 57 per cent of the FDI inflows last year. The country stands to gain even more investment from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free-trade agreement among 12 countries,” Credit Suisse said.

However, according to Credit Suisse, the Vietnamese equities market still has its challenges, such as liquidity, a relatively small number of listed firms, and limits on foreign ownership.

The bank’s equities analysts are also more cautious on credit-related assets, including banks and real estate companies. An increase in non-performing loans in the wake of a credit-fuelled property bubble over the last five years has put pressure on banks’ capital ratios. If lending continues at the pace of the last several years, four of the six largest banks will have capital adequacy ratios of less than 10 per cent by the end of 2016.

“I’m just looking for a permanent job that pays over 22 million won (US$19,000) a year, with health insurance, welfare benefits, pension and maternity leave, but it’s so difficult to find. It feels like I’ve lost my dream and my future,” she said.

There are 560,000 jobless young people like her in South Korea, aged between 15 and 29, based on figures released by Statistics Korea last month.

The news should soothe the nerves of young people desperate for work. Many, like Hwang, have resorted to finding temporary or part-time work.

Others, like Yu Hyo Jin, 26, are going back to school. A literature graduate, she has been unable to find a permanent job since graduating two years ago and is attending English classes to improve her chances of being hired as a teacher.

“We hope the government will do more to help us. So far, they have promised a lot, but have little results to show,” said Yu.

Their woes can be blamed on an unresponsive education system that has not kept up with what the job market needs. College programmes are concentrated in the humanities and social sciences, but the country has been pushing to grow its information technology and financial technology sectors.

Competition is also stiff. A national exam for those aspiring to be civil servants drew more than 222,000 applications in mid-February for just 4,120 positions available.

The Korean economy has also been sluggish of late, due to shrinking exports and increased competition from China and other rising economies. But the younger people of South Korea are not entirely free from blame either. Many are picky, believing that there is a lack of “good jobs” deserving of their qualifications.

Universities push out 300,000 graduates a year, which make up the 500,000 young people who enter the job market annually. But official data shows there are only 200,000 permanent positions available each year.

The rest are temporary jobs, some paying the minimum wage of 6,030 won per hour.

The big push for job creation will come from Budget cuts. On the chopping board could be over 190 projects, including infrastructure development.

Dr Choi Kyung Soo, director of human resource development policy at think-tank Korea Development Institute, said the redirected 17 trillion won is a big sum, but it depends on how the money is spent.

Job creation for younger people is a key pledge by President Park Geun Hye, who took office in 2013. Her administration has been spending about 2 trillion won a year on programmes to help employ young people. But the effectiveness of this policy came into question when a report by the Korea Employment Information Service in January showed that only 26.4 per cent of participants managed to find work through these programmes.

Of these, only 15 per cent were hired as regular employees, while others landed temporary or contract positions.

As for Hwang, discouraged by the bleak situation at home, she is now looking overseas. She has registered with a Singapore-based employment agency and hopes to get an interview soon.

“We still need foreign talents… but at the same time we really look after our local experts also,” said Dato Paduka Lim Jock Hoi, permanent secretary (Trade) at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MoFAT) on the sidelines of the ministry’s outreach programme on AEC and Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) yesterday.

The Asean bloc has established its mutual recognition arrangements (MRAs) aimed at making it easier for eight skilled professionals to work in other Asean member states.

The professional workers include doctors, dentists, nurses, architects, engineers, accountants, surveyors and tourism professionals.

MRAs are a major instrument for skilled labour mobility in Asean.

Dato Lim said that there is a need to satisfy the local requirements or regulations in a country before the foreign talents can start working.

“We have the mutual recognition arrangements in many services sector among members of Asean but this does not imply that they (foreign skilled professionals) can come in without satisfying the local conditions, (or) the local regulations, which is very important,” he said.

Giving example, he said that foreign doctors who wish to work in the Sultanate need to be registered in the Brunei Medical Council and they have to register to the professional standards.

These are among other regulations that will be imposed by the Asean member states, otherwise it will be difficult to manage the professional mobility in the regional grouping, he added.

He said that foreign talents have to fulfill certain criteria of the local regulations.

Asean member states, including Brunei, launched the AEC at the end of last year, achieving a milestone in the bloc’s regional economic integration agenda that offers opportunities in the form of a market of US$2.6 trillion ($3.5 trillion) with over 622 million people.

Last November, China General Nuclear Power Corp paid US$2.3 billion to acquire 1MDB’s power assets in Edra Global Energy Bhd.

This has saved the embattled 1MDB, whose advisory board chairman is Prime Minister Najib Razak, from its 42 billion ringgit debt crisis. Since October 2014, 1MDB’s debt troubles had weighed on Malaysia’s sovereign credit rating. Moody’s Ratings recently said 1MDB is no longer a concern.

And just two weeks ago, China Railway Engineering Corporation (CREC) – which is keen to bid for the HSR project – announced in Kuala Lumpur that it would invest $2 billion to build its regional centre in Bandar Malaysia.

CREC, the parent company of Hong Kong and Shanghai listed CRCC, also promised to bring in more Chinese investments into Malaysia. These recent favourable developments for Malaysia has convinced most market observers that China is likely to win the HSR project or be involved in some ways, overtaking Japan and other Western competitors.

“On the investment and political fronts, China has made inroads and many think it is the frontrunner for the HSR project. But it is premature to say who will get it now as the joint venture company to own and manage the HSR project has not been set up yet,” says Goh Bok Yen, a well-known transportation planning consultant.

The governments of Malaysia and Singapore are expected to finalise the commercial model and procurement approach of the project by this year. The HSR, starting at Bandar Malaysia, will have intermediate stations at Seremban, Ayer Keroh, Muar, Batu Pahat and Nusajaya, before ending in Singapore at Jurong East.

“Today, due to the fast development of new technology, nobody dares confidently say whose system is better. Even if the Chinese do not get the whole project, they have already gotten the terminal and with that kind of investment, they may be given participation in the supply of rolling stocks like locomotives and coaches,” adds Goh in a telephone interview with Sunday Star.

Indeed, China has already gained a favourable spot at the conceptual stage when the cost of the HSR was estimated at 40 billion ringgit. The world’s second largest economy pledged full-scale financing for the whole project and this augured well for the project during the economic slowdown.

Another advantage China has over its competitors from Japan, France and other Western players is that China has the experience of working with Malaysia on the latter’s KTM and LRT rail lines. It has supplied about 75 per cent to 80 per cent of the locomotives and coaches and related equipment to Malaysia, from its manufacturing plant in Malaysia.

On the ground, China is being favoured by many Chinese Malaysian-owned firms – which are eyeing lucrative projects in the One Belt-One Road regional economic initiative of China.

Indeed, Kinsteel Bhd’s Tan Sri Pheng Yin Huah, who is also president of Hua Zong that groups all Chinese guilds in Malaysia, has openly urged the Government to give the HSR job to China. Several other trade leaders have followed suit.

Some business leaders, such as Malaysia-China Chamber of Commerce president Datuk Bong Hon Liong, see spillovers into other areas of economic cooperation with Beijing if the HSR project is awarded to China.

China has been Malaysia’s largest trading partner since 2009. According to the Chinese’s official data, which took into account Malaysia’s indirect exports to China via Singapore and Hong Kong, total bilateral trade in 2014 exceeded 400 billion ringgit – with balance of trade heavily skewed towards Malaysia’s favour.

In recent years, Malaysia’s robust tourism has also relied heavily on tourist dollars from China. After a plunge of Chinese tourist arrivals in 2014 and 2015 caused by two plane disasters in 2014, the Chinese are now returning to Malaysia with a vengeance.

Although many people believe that Malaysia might return the favour to China for throwing a lifeline to 1MDB, Goh notes that Malaysia will have to take the views of Singapore into consideration as the republic will be an important stakeholder.

“Singapore culture is very different. They are very independent and professional in their approach and assessment,” says Goh, noting there is a firm commitment by two governments to invite open tenders once all details are hammered out.

According to individuals who have communicated with rail consultants in Singapore, advisers to the Singapore Government are not leaning towards China.

Rightly or wrongly, China’s rail system and engineering technology has given the perception that it is not as safe as Japan and the West.

This is partly due to the much shorter history of fast train development in China but mainly because of several rail mishaps that had occurred several years ago.

News that a crash in Wenzhou in 2011 killed 40 people and injured 190 others has not faded from the people’s memory.

The negative perception of China’s fast rail system is made worse by the recent problems China had encountered in Thailand and Indonesia.

According to Bangkok Post on March 24, Thai government has decided to wholly invest in the Thai-Sino fast-to-medium train project after it failed to agree with China on some crucial terms that have set back progress for months.

According to Jakarta Post, the signing of an agreement on the development of the China-funded high-speed Jakarta-Bandung rail project between the government and PT Kereta Cepat Indonesia China (KCIC) was delayed to March 17 after several allegations against KCIC. Construction of the project had been suspended for two months after the groundbreaking in January.

But Goh says China has to be judged in the right perspective. It only rolled out its first high speed train in 2003 and in the early stages, there were bound to be hiccups.

“If you look at the number of accidents involved, China may be high. But if you look at the accidents per million train-km, it may not be high and is lower than many other countries,” Goh states.

But so far, China has not been proactive or even responsive to correct the perception on safety.

The CERC has not replied to Sunday Star’s emails on safety concerns. However, China is inviting journalists to experience China’s rail ride in mid-April and to brief them on its rail development.

In fact, China can now boast the fastest high speed railway development in the world. Its nine bullet rail systems covered total rail line distance of 19,000km in 2015, accounting for 60 per cent of the world’s total line distance.

Goh remarks: “China started rail modernisation and high speed train development only about 15 years ago. But its speed of development and implementation is incredibly high. Competitors can say anything about China, but look at this country, it has far more tracks and rail systems than all other countries combined in the world.

“They picked up from the middle road, they picked up new technology, did their own research and development (R&D) and modernised the technology acquired.”

Indeed, China has made it known that it has studied the technologies of Germany, France and Japan – countries known for their superior rail engineering and systems – before developing its own HSR technology and systems.

“Due to China’s R&D on major train projects and super lengthy tracks, China has developed the most cost-effective rail system in the world that nobody can compete with,” says Goh.

In fact, Sunday Star learns that one of Malaysia’s top decision makers who have been to China several times to study its rail system is impressed by China’s rail construction and engineering work.

In China’s first ever rail exhibition held in Kuala Lumpur held in mid- December 2015, Malaysians were impressed with China’s extensive experience in HSR construction and operation under different geological and weather conditions, and its ability to develop a complete technology system for high speed railway.

The exhibits had given emphasis on how safe and reliable the Chinese system is. One of the safety assuran­ces highlighted was that China has developed a 400km/h comprehensive inspection train for real-time inspection of the track, communication, traction and power supply system of high speed railway.

But in terms of public image and media relations, China is lagging behind its regional rival Japan.

Japan took Malaysian media for a bullet train ride and a briefing on its technology last year. The trip left many impressed with its superb technology, safety measures and track record. Japan has a head start in high speed rail projects, rolling out the first Shinkansen (bullet train) passenger service in 1964.

“On the media front, Japan has won a battle over China. But on local sentiment and political fronts, it has lost out to China,” observes Goh.

But an independent engineer in Malaysia still sees China in a favourable light. He notes that China’s HSR train technology has evolved from Japan, Germany and France.

“There’re several mishaps of its trains in China due to new start up and technical glitches but China has been able to rectify the defects. After all the learning curves, China is able to manufacture at a cheaper cost. In addition, they may win HSR train contract in Malaysia due to cost factors, providing financing loan and inter-governmental diplomacy,” said the senior engineer.

He notes that Malaysia and China are enjoying the closest ties since they began diplomatic ties in 1974. Kuala Lumpur, which has maintained a cool gesture towards China’s occupation of disputed islands in South China seas, is viewed by China as its best friend among Southeast Asian nations.

Hence, it is no surprise that China is extending hands to help Malaysia overcome the current economic slowdown and the 1MDB crisis.

But for Malaysians and Singaporeans who will be the frequent riders of the future speed train, safety and reliability of the HSR must be given priority.

“Safety cannot be compromised. Malaysia now needs to set up a good expert team to look into all systems. It also needs an independent assessment team to give professional advice to the government, without political and sentiment considerations,” says Goh.