Post-US election analysis indicates that most polls failed to foresee the Trump victory because they underestimated the power of white underprivileged voters who had never bothered to cast a vote before but got behind Trump this time. His main supporters are people who have only low levels of education and have earned average but stagnating incomes for the past two decades.
Trump’s campaign promised to bring back their jobs and dignity through the slogan of “Make America Great Again”. The interesting part is that his supporters were not turned off by his other campaign policy of cutting taxes for the rich.
Robert Shiller, the 2013 Nobel laureate in economics, explained that these people, who consider themselves at least middle class, do not like government policies that look like handouts. They don’t want a more progressive tax system that would give money to them. They just want their economic power back.
If Trump plans to be re-elected for a second term, he will need to fulfil his campaign promises: reducing the inequality gap without raising taxes, negotiating new trade deals, imposing higher tariffs on imports, building a wall along the Mexican border, and deporting illegal immigrants charged with criminal offences.
He aims to create more domestic jobs through the expansion of traditional heavy industries and through coal mining, but at the cost of higher production inefficiency and lower environmental standards.
Fiscal policy is also seen as a feasible method that President-elect Trump can employ to stimulate economic growth. So expect more investments in infrastructure as well as upgrading of existing infrastructure.
The question is this: Will the Trump administration be able to finance its rising expenditures while at the same time cutting tax revenues? Higher public debt is unavoidable in such a situation.
Trump’s administration can finance its new bonds by borrowing either from the private sector and households or from the central bank. Borrowing more from the private sector and households would mean that long-term market interest rates would have to be adjusted higher to attract more bondholders.
However, higher long-term interest rates could deter economic growth and as a result, lower employment. To avoid high long-term interest rates, the government may borrow from the central bank directly. Laura Tyson, a professor at the University of California at Berkeley, has pointed out that in very special situations, the central bank may purchase government bonds and roll them over in perpetuity when they mature. In this way, the government will be able to increase spending without having to increase taxes now or in the future, and still be able to maintain low interest rates.
The problem with this approach is that it would not only increase the risk of volatile inflation but would also destroy the confidence in the financial integrity of the central bank. On this last point, any policy changes away from the norm would be a big challenge to overcome.

Professor Arayah Preechametta is a lecturer at the faculty of economics, Thammasat University.

How to ensure that this HR technology will provide an efficient system of records and improve productivity by as much as 10 times? How do we ensure that this HR technology will enhance the company’s competitive advantage over its competitors? How do we ensure that this HR technology will act as an engaging tool for employees?
Worry not. All we need is the “right map” with the “right people” on board.
One of the most common factors contributing to project failures is unclear objectives. Having the “right map” will ensure that the project team stays its course and reaches the promise land and avoids the pitfalls that beset most projects. And with the right people you will have the pioneers who will make this happen.
Just like any good map, the project objectives should contain two crucial components: a destination and the way to get there.
In terms of HR system, destination is the grand vision of the senior management. It’s what success looks like when we achieve our mission. This vision must come from HR leadership and communicated to the project team. Typically, this is done through interviews prior to kick-off. This vision should be a short mantra, like provide learning capability to employees anywhere and any time, or provide real-time talent information to senior management.
The second component of this map is the guiding principle. This will form the basis for decision-making, general direction and day-to-day running of the team.
The main purpose of this guiding principle is to ensure maximum use of the new HR system. It will help prevent the project from getting bogged down by the cobwebs of the legacy system.
Similarly, the guiding principle should come from the head of HR and be communicated to all stakeholders and the team. Some examples of good guiding principles are: Adopt best practice offered by the new system, and keep the new process simple with a no-customisation policy.
A guiding principle will not only speed up the project, it will help to reduce the risk significantly, and thereby ensure greater chance of success.
Right people are the trailblazers. These trailblazers are crazy enough to go on a journey with you. Their craziness, sometimes referred to as “passion”, will help the team overcome future roadblocks.
Projects are never easy, no matter how good you are. Right people are less likely to give up when push come to shove. Their passion for the project will see to it that they deliver the goods in the face of adversity.
So get your pen and paper out and meet with your HR bosses, draw your map, and choose your trailblazers.

Suvit Chansrichawla is next-generation HR consultant under the brand Serendipity & Co, partner of the Curve Group in Thailand.

Hi-Way, which provides car-title loans under the Somwang Ngern Sang Dai brand, developed the Somwang Sabai Jai product last year, but decided to tone down this form of lending at the beginning of the second half of this year after learning that the government planned to introduce pico-finance for low-income earners, managing director Supachai Boonsiri said.
Somwang Sabai Jai currently has a loan portfolio of Bt200 million, which is deemed sufficient for controlling operating costs, he said.
Prevailing economic conditions were another reason for Hi-Way to slow down its micro-finance, as this type of lending is unsecured and the company might face rising operating costs from debt collection from borrowers who are small vendors, he explained.
While the cost is under control if a customer repays debt when the company sends a reminder alert, it rises beyond the target level if Hi-Way has to dispatch on-the-ground staff to pursue repayment.
Therefore, Hi-Way needs to review its micro-finance plan and be clear about the full conditions for operating a pico-finance business before deciding its next step, Supachai said.
Hi-Way will apply for a licence if it is able to lend to customers who work in a province where the company has an office, while the customer’s household registration is in another province.
However, if the pico-finance licensing conditions do not allow allowing operators to lend across provinces, Hi-Way might opt to take another look at its operations to see what it can do to enhance the way it controls risk and customer behaviour within the terms and conditions of its micro-finance licence, he said.
Tisco Bank, however, wants Hi-Way to focus on car-title loans and expand the vehicle segment to achieve the target set for the business over the next three to five years, he pointed out.
During the period, Somwang Ngern Sang Dai aims to have outstanding loans of Bt15 billion, compared to an estimated Bt8 billion this year, the managing director said.
About 95 per cent of its portfolio currently relies on four-wheel vehicles, he said, adding that to achieve its target, Hi-Way will attempt to expand its lending to fleet cars and motorcycles, which it hopes will account for 10 per cent and 25-30 per cent, respectively, within three to five years.
Auto-title lending entails taking out a short-maturity loan, under which customers can repay all the debt before the end of the term, which many choose to do.
The company therefore has to acquire new accounts to maintain its portfolio and expand its branch network to cover the whole country, he said.
Hi-Way targets having 300 branches within the next three to five years – double the current number.
Last year, Hi-Way missed its outstanding-loan target of Bt8 billion because many customers repaid their debt before maturity, leaving it with outstanding lending of Bt6 billion at the end of December, Supachai added.

Unveiled at COP22 in Morocco, the ‘Masdar Gen Z global sustainability survey’ is the first global poll of the attitudes among young people aged 18-25 towards climate change, sustainable development and renewable energy.
Carried out earlier this year to coincide with Masdar’s 10-year anniversary, the survey spoke to 5,000 post-millennials in 20 countries across the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, the Americas, Europe and Asia.
The survey clearly illustrates the level of concern among young people about climate change, with 40 per cent of those interviewed naming it among the biggest challenges facing the world in the next decade, ahead of the economy (34 per cent), terrorism (32 per cent), poverty and inequality (29 per cent) and unemployment (29 per cent).
Eight in ten (83 per cent) post-millennials also said governments needed to listen more to young people about sustainability. A similar number (80 per cent) believed current leaders had not done enough to protect the environment.
They thought government and the private sector shared responsibility for developing clean technology (81 per cent), but they expected more government investment in renewable energy (84 per cent).
Almost two in three (59 per cent) said they were interested in working or studying in an area related to sustainability.
Patricia Espinosa, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), said: “There is huge demand among our youth for corporate and public investment in clean technology and renewable energy. The winners in the green economy will be those who can harness this youthful idealism and combine it with regulations, long-term investment, cultural change and political action.”
The survey found that around half of Generation Z (46 per cent) had chosen to spend more money on products from a company that behaved sustainably, and 31 per cent had boycotted a company they perceived as following unsustainable practices.
Mohamed Jameel Al Ramahi, CEO of Masdar, said: “Over the last 10 years, the clean energy industry has become one of the world’s most exciting and dynamic growth markets. As we look ahead, the findings of our global survey provide an important insight into the action required to accelerate the adoption of renewable energy and clean technologies.”

According to the report, online apparel and footwear sales are projected to grow 68 per cent by 2020. The uptrend is an opportunity for entrepreneurs to embrace the omni-channel approach to broaden customers’ accessibility to their products and detailed information.
Kraipob Pangsapa, Cotton USA Asean representative, said: “Global Lifestyle Monitor is a biennial consumer research study sponsored by Cotton Inc and Cotton USA in the UK, Germany, Italy, Turkey, Mexico, Colombia, India, China, Japan and Thailand to study consumers’ apparel shopping behaviour.
“The results of the study provide insightful analyses to industry entrepreneurs on various topics, including consumer shopping habits, purchase drivers, key trends, and sustainability and social concerns. With these insights, business operators can plan on their product development, marketing and distribution channels to meet consumers’ needs and lifestyle preferences more effectively.”
He said the sample group in Thailand consisted of 1,000 respondents in Bangkok and other cities. The key findings of the study were the following.
Sustainability remains important, with 75 per cent of Thai consumers saying they seek it in their apparel purchases. Nearly all (98 per cent) of Thai consumers say that cotton fibre is safe for the environment, 81 per cent prefer cotton-rich clothing and about 67 per cent are willing to pay more for it.
In comparison with manmade fibres, cotton is regarded as the most authentic by 82 per cent of the consumers, the most reliable by 81 per cent, the most sustainable by 80 per cent, and the softest and most comfortable by 73 per cent.
Some 84 per cent of Thai consumers begin their online shopping journey on social media, an increase from 69 per cent in 2014, followed by 32 per cent who begin on search engines and 20 per cent on e-commerce websites.
As connectivity grows, the online world has become increasingly influ
ential with the shopping patterns and decisions of Thai consumers. One-fifth of Thai consumers shop for clothing online. About 21 per cent shop online and use the Internet to seek information for their decision-making.
The study revealed that 67 per cent use the Internet to browse fashion trends and clothing styles, 55 per cent to research apparel, and 46 per cent to read customer reviews.
Their top concerns when shopping for clothes online were quality, as outlined by 91 per cent, shipping time by 79 per cent, clothing availability by 78 per cent, return policies by 77 per cent and information privacy by 77 per cent.
When asked about the retail channels to shop for clothing, 59 per cent of Thai consumers say they shop for most of their apparel at street markets, followed by 16 per cent at hypermarkets, 11 per cent at department stores, and 10 per cent at independent stores.
“By 2030, Thai consumers’ spending on apparel is projected to grow 62 per cent above the Bt300 million in 2015,” Kraipob said.
“Online apparel and footwear sales are expected to grow 68 per cent from Bt3 billion in 2015 to Bt5 billion by 2020. The figures suggest that Thai consumers tend to do more apparel shopping on online channels and increase social-media utilisation for their buying decisions.
“The top factors that could influence these decisions are accurate product descriptions and detailed size information. As a result, entrepreneurs need to provide all the detailed product information sought by the consumers.
“They should also prioritise development of their own online platforms and channels alongside offline sales channels and touchpoints, such as retail stores, in order to elevate consumers’ shopping experience across all channels,” he concluded.

As well, given the current speed of Thailand’s economic growth, it is likely that our working population will retire before they get rich. The future financial well-being of our people will be at risk.
For a typical person, most income is spent on consumption ranging from foods to electronic gadgets, instead of saving and investment. According to official statistics, the ratio of savings to disposable income contracted from 11 per cent in 2007 to 8.5 per cent in 2014.
Even worse, a sizeable chunk of consumption has been financed by borrowing, such as credit cards, personal loans and car loans. As a result, household debt has piled up over the past five years, reaching 82 per cent of gross domestic product.
These borrowings are also ridden with delinquent payments, reflecting deteriorating credit quality. Thailand’s credit-card delinquency rate is currently 7 per cent, above those of Singapore (5 per cent) and the United States (3 per cent).
The combination of low saving, high debt and bad credit quality has been partly spurred by recent government packages such as the first-car scheme and bank’s underwriting standards. To this end, it is undeniable that individuals also contribute a fair share of the problem because of a lack of financial knowledge and discipline.
Financial literacy, defined as the combination of knowledge, understanding, and awareness to make a sound financial decision for better financial well-being, would solve this problem.
However, Thailand has been on the low side on financial literacy. According to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Thailand’s financial-literacy scores are less than the global average, ranking 17th of 30 surveyed economies, and well behind Hong Kong (fifth) and South Korea (seventh).
Many public-sector and private bodies have put considerable effort into improving financial literacy. Unfortunately, these efforts are not well concerted from the holistic view, leading to overlapped, fragmented and inefficient plans and actions. Campaigns have proved to be sporadic and have yet to reach the wider population.
Scalability is the critical issue here, and digital platforms are the answer. One example of building and scaling up financial literacy has taken the shape of a digital lending platform.
LendUp, partly funded by Google, is a US financial-technology platform that provides online lending that induces borrowers to improve their financial literacy. In a nutshell, borrowers will receive better interest rates if they complete the online interactive financial-education sessions. This is on top of the good payment behaviour they exhibit and the number of friends they recommend to use LendUp.
This mechanism imprints good financial behaviour on individuals by using better interest rates as incentives. It also improves financial inclusion, as the platform welcomes borrowers with limited access to credit.
More important, it keeps building the borrower’s financial knowledge through e-learning courses.
Peer recommendation also spreads out the network effect of the good borrowers. Therefore, financial literacy will increase through a leveraging effect.
Digital platforms therefore can be tools to scale financial literacy nationwide. But the utmost key to success would be a national strategic direction from the government to shape the trend of financial well-being to the way that our country must be.
Last, improved financial literacy would improve financial well-being by building more savings and investment, and better debt serviceability. This would make our country prosper, not only today, but also in the future.

Panawat Innurak is a specialist at TMB Analytics. He can be reached at Panawat.Inn@tmbbank.com. Views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of TMB Bank or its executives.